?????³å?ç»???ï¼?ä½?ä¸???ä»???é¹°â????3??FOMCä¼?è®??¹è?

?????³ä?å®?æº? ????å®? ????

????å½??°æ?¶é????22?¥ï?ç¾????¨å??????þ@???å¸??ºå???ä¼?ï¼?FOMCï¼?è®????è®?¹¶???声æ??ï¼????¹ä¸ºï¼?1ï¼?????5BP??.75ï¼?-5.00ï¼???2ï¼??¹é?µå?¾æ?¾ç¤º2023å¹´å?©ç??å³°å?¼é?计为5.1ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?12????å¹³ï?2024å¹´å?©ç??æ°´å¹³è¾?12??ä¸?ä¿?.2ä¸??¾å???¹è??.3ï¼???3ï¼?ç»?æµ?é¢?æµ??¹é???ç¾????¨ä?ä¿?3Q4??24Q4å¹´ç?æµ?å¢???0.1??0.4ä¸??¾å???¹è??.4ï¼???1.2ï¼?ï¼?ä½?失ä????¹é???è°?2023å¹´é?æµ?0.1ä¸??¾å???¹è??.5ï¼???ç¾????¨å?å¹?ä¸?ä¿?3Q4??24Q4?¸å?PCEé¢?æµ???.6ï¼???2.6ï¼?ï¼???0.1ä¸??¾å???¹ï???

????25BP???????å¸??ºé???ï¼????¥æ??ä»??©ä?次å????©º?´ã???????ä»?3??50BP??????°å?????????å¸??ºé????§ç??è½?????3????ç¡?è°·é?¶è??´äº§äº?件é?¨å??????ç¾????¨ç?????å¹´å??ä»???宽æ?¾æ?¿ç???40å¹´æ?¥æ??æ¿?è¿???????ä½?è½???????????ç¾??½é?¶è?ä¸??????ºç?°è??ºç?å­?款æ??ºï???èµ?产ç???èµ?æµ?????¶å?µï?å¸??ºä?åºþ=??忧ç????¨å?????å¼?????????3??ç¾????¨ä?è¿?è¡?25BP?????????????????é£??©å???§ï???23å¹´å?©ç??ä¸??¢å¹¶???ä¿???¾ç¤ºç¾????¨æ??忧信?¨æ?¡ä»¶?¶ç´§å¯¹ç?æµ?紧影???·å?ä¸?ç¡???§ã??1ï¼?ç¾????¨è?为ç?è°·é?¶è?äº?件å?¨é????ä½?ç³»å??ä¼?????é£??©å¹¶ä¸?大ï?é²?å¨?å°?认为??ç¾??½é?¶è?ç³»ç??·å??§æ?§â??ï¼????ºé?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå???½å???????温å??å½±å??ï¼?25BP??å¹?åºþ@?¨å????两个??ç«???é¢???ä¸??äº?ä¸??´ä?ç½???2ï¼?ç¾????¨ä?ä¿????¥ç?æµ?å¢???é¢?æµ?ï¼??¾ç¤ºç¾????¨æ??忧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºä??´ç´§??ä¿¡ç?¨æ?¡ä»¶??Tighter credit condition?????½æ???»ç?æµ???

????ç¾????¨å??³å?¨å??å¸??ºé??温ä?ä¹?è§?ï¼?å¹´å?????????ä¸?大ã???¨æ?次ä?è®??ä¿??æµ??°æ???????µä?ï¼???ä»?³¨????023年失ä¸???é¢?æµ??´æ?????·ä?ä¿???ï¼?ä¸??¹é?¢æ???¾ç¤ºç¾????¨å?äº?å®?ä½?ç»?æµ?è½?????ä»??·å?ä¿¡å?ï¼?声æ??ä¸?????°è???å°±ä??°å????¿æ??????????picked up??ï¼??þ???¹é?¢æ?´å????¾ç¤ºç¾??½å°±ä¸?å¸??ºå?ç»´æ??è¾?强æ???¿ï?è¿?ä¸?ç¾????¨å?¨æ?次é?æµ?ä¹?ä¸??ä¿??¸å????????åº??????¨ä¿¡?¨æ?¡ä»¶å½±å?????§ç????设ä?ï¼?ç¾????¨æ??å°???è¿?ç»´æ??é«??©ç??æ°´å¹³?´ä????¹å????¶é????ï¼?è¿?ä¹?å°±è?½å?解é??é²?å¨?å°?表示????¹¶???ºå????å½¢â??base case??ï¼?ä½???è¿??¥è?ï¼?å¦???ä¿¡ç?¨æ?¡ä»¶?¶ç´§??åºþ:????ç»??¶é?¿è?ç¾????¨é???ï¼??£ä????½ä?对å??ç»??¿ç?????巨大影å????

????ç¾????¨ç¼©è¡¨å?继续?¨è?ï¼?è¿????©è¡¨ä¸?ç­?äº?QE???¨æ?次ä?è®????ï¼????°æ?°æ???¾ç¤ºç¾????¨å?¨ä??¨ä????©è¡¨3000亿ç???ï¼?使å?å¸??ºæ??忧ç????¨æ???þ????Tè½???å®?è´¨æ??Eï¼?ä½?é²?å¨?å°??¨æ?次ä?è®?£°????è®°è??ä¼?ä¸????³ä?缩表??ä½?å°?继续è¿?è¡?ï¼???ä¸?è¿????????©è¡¨??¸ºäº?满足?¶è?æµ??¨æ?§é??æ±?ï¼???QEèµ?产购买å??ä½??¿ç??©ç????ä½??¨æ????¨ä?????ï¼?????ä»??¨ã??ç¾?欧央è¡?ï¼?å®?ä½?ç»?æµ?ä¸?????é£??©æ???þB??¸´ä¸¤é?¾ï?-?¨ç??å®?è§??¨æ? · ç¬?04????ï¼?2023.03.19ï¼?ä¸???????å®??¨ä??´ã???¨é?¶è?ä¸???å¤?????å¸?ä¸?ï¼?é²?å¨?å°?ä¹?表示ä¸?å­??¨ç??¼º???°è±¡??

??????ä»??ä¿?????¨å?©ç??å³°å?¼è??.00-5.25ï¼?ï¼???????ç¾??????°ã??ç¾??ºå?©ç??ä¸?è¡???????è¾?大ã??ç¾????¨å??欧央è¡??¨é??对é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºé???ä¸?????äº?类似????åºþ

????é£??©æ??示ï?ç¾????¨ç´§ç¼©å??åºþA?é¢?????

?¨é?¨è?è®