???? ?¨æ????

????3??è®????è®?????¨ç???é¢????°å????5bps??é²?å¨?å°?表示è¿????¶è?äº?件å?导è?´ä¿¡è´·ç´§ç¼©ï?è¿???å°???ä½????????????åºþ:????ä»??为æ???¥ç????¨å??????´ä¸ºè°¨æ??ï¼?5?????þ@?????é«?åºþ@???³ä?é£??©ä?件æ?????å°±ä?以å???????°æ????é²?å¨?å°?表示????????ºç???å½??å¸??ºé???????å­??¨è??©æ?¢è?????å½ ¬??????0å¹´æ??ç¾??ºå?©ç????宽å????¡ã??

??????æ­¤æ?è®????è®????ï¼?

?????©ç??å·¥å?·ä??°é??å·¥å?·æ?¹é????¨æ???è®????è®??ï¼?ç¾????¨ä?è°????þ@?ºé???©ç??25bps??.75ï¼?-5.0ï¼?ï¼?缩表??å¥?ç»´æ??ä¸?????ç»?æµ?é¢????¹é???ç¾????¨å???¥ä???è¿?äº?????å±????½ä?导è?´ä¿¡è´·æ?¶ç´§??表述ï¼????¤ä???????????ç¼???????表述??è´§å??¿ç?ç«??ºæ?¹é???ç¾????¨å?äº???å½?????????å¥???表述????è½???ï¼?声æ??ä¸??????????´ç????ç»??è°?å°?????å½?????è¿?ä¸?表述è¢??¿æ??¸º??ä¸?äº?é¢?å¤????¿ç?紧缩???½æ????å½?????ï¼??????ºå??????临è??½å???

???????¿ç??©ç??é¢?æµ?ä¸?ç»?æµ??????æµ?ï¼?

?????¹é?µå?¾æ?¾ç¤ºæ­¤æ?????·¯å¾???é¢?æµ??¸è?2022å¹?2????é¢?æµ????¨è?å°?ï¼???????¹æ°´å¹³ä?ç»´æ????.0ï¼?-5.25ï¼???该路å¾?表æ??2023å¹´ç????¨æ??å°?继续????5bpsï¼?????ä»??计é???????????024å¹´ã??ç¾????¨ä?è°?2023å¹´å??2024å¹´ç??ç»?æµ?å¢???é¢?æµ?ï¼??½ç?¶ç????¨ç?æµ?é¢?æµ???è¦??¾ç¤ºç¾????¨ä?认为ç¾??½ç?æµ????ºä?å®??°è½¯????ï¼?ä½?ç¾??½é?¶è?ä¸?æµ??¨æ?§å?????¨ç????¨ç»§ç»?´§ç¼©ç???????ä»?å­??¨é??©ï?è´§å?紧缩对ä?ç»?æµ???????????è¿?信贷紧缩?´å¿«???¾ç?°ï???ä»??为æ?è½???½è??¾å??°è½¯??????

??????é²?å¨?å°?讲è?è¦??¹ï?

????é²?å¨?å°?表示ï¼???è¿????¶è?ä¸?äº?件å?导è?´ä¿¡è´·æ?¡ä»¶?´å??紧缩ï¼??´ç´§??ä¿¡è´·?¡ä»¶??»¥?¿ä»£??????è¯?ä¼°æ???þB??è¦?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å?????¶ï?å°??¹å???³æ³¨ä¿¡è´·ç´§ç¼©??å®?????é¢???å½±å????é²?å¨?å°?表示ä»?å¹´é?????????ä»????ºæ???????è¿???èµ?产è??ºè¡¨?©å?并ä??´æ?¥æ?¹å??è´§å??¿ç?ç«??ºã??å°??°é?¶è??ºç?°ä?严é?????°é?¾ï??¶è?ç³»ç??¥åº·ä¸??·æ???§æ?§ã???????¡ä»¶???¶ç´§???½æ????????¾ç¤º???´ä¸ºä¸¥å³»??信贷紧缩??ç»??å¾?容æ??产ç????è¦???å®?è§?ç»?æµ???åº?ï¼?ç¾????¨æ?¿ç??³å?ä¼?????è¿?ä¸??¹ã??

??????é²?å¨?å°?æ­¤æ??°é?»å??å¸?ä¼?ä¸?表示?¶è??±æ?ºå???½å???产ç????åºþ>??å½±å??ï¼?ä½??¶å?导è?´ä¿¡è´·æ?¡ä»¶?´ä¸ºç´§ç¼©ï¼?è¿?å°???»¥?¿ä»£????? ???¶ä?表示????¹¶ä¸????ºå????å½ ¬??

?????±ä??¶è?ä¸?é£??©ä?件ç??å½±å??ï¼?ç¾????¨ç´§ç¼©é?计å??´ä¸ºè°¨æ??ï¼???å¯????³æ³¨???¥ç??½é????ä½?ç³»æ??¨æ?§æ???µä»¥??ä¿¡è´·?¶ç¼©???µã?????¶ï????¥é???????±ç?æµ??¶å????信贷紧缩è¶?é¢???è§þ@??ï¼?ä½?ç»?æµ?????ä»??·æ???§æ?§ï?å¸??ºé?????????price inè¿?å¤???

??????????¸´è¿?尾声ï¼?5?????þ@???????³ä????¥é????以å??ç¾??½é????ä½?ç³»é??©è?ä¸?æ­¥ç??æ¼???ï¼?10å¹´æ??ç¾??ºå?©ç????宽å????¡ã??

?????½ç?¶ç??½é????ä»??·æ??ç²??§ï?ä½?ç¾??½é?¶è?ä¸???????ä¸?容忽è§?ï¼????¶é????ä¸?è¡?????ï¼?å°¤å?¶æ???¤ä??¿é¡¹ä»¥å???????ä¸?è¡???åºþ??ä¸?????ï¼?ç¾????¨é??¸´ä¸¤é?¾ï??????????å·²è?顶ã????ä»??为æ?è½?????¸´è¿?ç»???ï¼?5?????þ@???????³æ³¨?¶è?ä¸??²å?»å??´ç??½ä¿¡è´·ç´§ç¼©ã??å¸??ºæ??????é£??©ã??å°±ä?以å???????°æ???å­?????????????????????½æ?§ã???±ä????¥ä?å­??¨é??©ä?件产????????ä¸?è¡?ä¸???é¢?????ç¾??½å°±ä¸?å¸??ºè?é¢???强å?²ç?????½æ?§ï?????ç¾??ºå?©ç????宽å????¡ã??

??????é£??©å??ç´?ï¼?

????ç¾??½é????ä½?ç³»ç????å¼±æ?§æ??æµ??¨æ?§é??©è?é¢???ï¼???????ç»???延è?é¢???ï¼?ç¾??½é????è¶?é¢???ï¼??°ç??¿æ²»é£??©è?é¢???ç­???