任泽平ï?è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?»ï???ä»???好ç??åº?对æ???¨å???¼ç?æµ?

????è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?

??????ï¼?任泽平å?¢é??

????2023å¹???23?¥ï?ç¾????¨è????è®??å¸?????5ä¸?pï¼?å°????þ@?©ç???ºé?´æ??????.75ï¼?-5ï¼??ºé?´ï?ç¬þ@??é¢????? ä¸?è°?2023å¹´ç??ç»?æµ?é¢?????.4ï¼?ï¼?????.5ï¼?ï¼? ä¸?è°?失ä?é¢?????.5ï¼?ï¼?????.6ï¼?ï¼? ä¸?è°????????¸å?????é¢?????.3ï¼???3.6ï¼?ï¼????¼å????¸º3.1ï¼???3.5ï¼???

??????ä»??¤æ???ç¾????¨é??¸´?§é??????稳ç?æµ???åº?对é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºç??ä¸????½ä?è§?ï¼?ç¾????¨å????·²??¼ºå¼©ä????è¿?次å???????½é?½æ??????ï¼???ä»????强è?è¿?ï¼?ç¾????¨é?¢å??????´ä¸ª?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??æµ??¨æ?§å?±æ?ºï?ç¾????¨è??????äº??´ä¸ª?±æ?ºï?2020-2021å¹´ç???´å???ºæ???±è???è´§å?ï¼?2022å¹???以æ?¥ç??æ¿?è¿?????????¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºç???¹æ???ä»?天ç????¨ç??讲è????©ä??´ç¡¬ï¼??±æ?ºè?????解ï?å¦???åº?对失败ï?å°???级è?³ç?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é??ï¼??²å?»å?¨ç????ä»?å¹´ï?ä¸??½ç?æµ?å°????°å?é¢??¨ç??ï¼?ä½?ä¹???¸´å¤??¨ç??ä¸?ç¡???§ï???æ­¤å??¨å???¼ç?æµ?ï¼?????å±??¾å?¨é?è¦?ä»»å?¡ï???å±?好è??·±???对ä???é£??©ç???¹å?ºã??

????1 ç¾????¨å???????¥è?尾声ï¼????¶ä??????????²é???/STRONG>

????ç¾???????è®????è®????¾å???¹é??è¦?ä¿¡å?·ï?

????ç¬??ï¼?ç¾????¨å?????¥è?尾声???¨ä?è®?ºªè¦?ä¸??å§???ä¼?表示ä¸?äº???é¢?å¤????¶ç´§???¿ç????½æ????????ï¼?è¾?æ­¤å????å°???ç»?????????表述??鸽ã???¹é?µå?¾æ?¾ç¤ºï¼?2023å¹´ç???©ç??ä¸???°ä¸º5.1ï¼?ï¼?è¾?ä¸?次å?????????????ï¼?????ä»??©ä?次å?????????

????ç¬??ï¼?è¿????¶è?ä¸?è¿?ç»??´é?·å?导è?´é?????¡ä»¶ç´§ç¼©??ä¼?è®?ºªè¦?ä¸????°ï?è¿?????????äº?件ä?对å?åº???ä¼?ä¸???è´·æ????产ç??å½±å??ï¼?ä»?????ç´??æµ???å°±ä??????????¨å??å¸?ä¼?ä¸?é²?å¨?å°????°ï?å½??¶è?ä¸??ºç?°é????¶ï??¶è?ä¼??????¶ç´§?¶é??©æ???£ï?ä»???导è?´é?????¡ä»¶?¶ç´§??æ­¤å?ï¼?é²?å¨?å°?ä¹?表示????ç¾????¨æ??¨é???°è?ä¼°é?????¡ä»¶ï¼??¶è?ä¸???????äº??¨æ??ç§?ç¨?åºþ????代ä???????

????ç¬??ï¼?????ä»???¸»è¦?????ï¼??¨å¹´ç»´æ??é«??©ç?????¨å??å¸?ä¼?ä¸?é²?å¨?å°????³ä?????é«???????????»¥??2ï¼???????????ï¼?强è?äº???å®??????????³å??????¶ä????°ä???ä½?å®??¸å?????å°??????°ä???迹象ï¼?å°±ä?å¸??ºä??¶å??ç´§ï??³è????°ä?è¡?å¿?é¡»é??è¿????¶é??æ±??¥å??°ã??æ­¤å?é²?å¨?å°?ä¹????°ï???????ä¸?ä¼????½è?为æ???¥ç?æµ???¸´ä¸?è¡?????ï¼?æ­£å?¨å??¾è½¯??????è·????

????ç¬???ï¼??????????????å½?è¢?????å¸??ºæ???þB??è¯??ä»·é?????¶ï?é²?å¨?å°?表示??????¨ä?å¹´ç???ºå??é¢?????å½?¸­??2023å¹???22?¥ï?纳æ??¾¾??ä¸?è·?1.6ï¼?ï¼????¼ç?¼æ?????°ä?è·?1.63ï¼?ï¼?????00ä¸?è·?1.65ï¼???2023å¹???23???¶ï?2å¹´æ???½å?ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è·?5.6ï¼?ï¼?10å¹´æ???½å?ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è·?1.5ï¼?

????????æµ·å??¶è?é£??©æ??????????³é??????????ä»??为ï?æµ·å??¶è?é£??©ä?容忽è§?ï¼?å¦?????ç»????µï?å°?å¼????????±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?深度衰é????ç¾????¨é??¸´?????´ä¸ª?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºï?????è¿?ä¿¡è´·?¶ç´§ä¼?导å?°å?ä½???æ±???ä¸??þB?????±æ?ºç????ï¼?对å?ä½?ç»?æµ???å½±å??å°?????线æ?§ç????????????ä»??¶å?äº?é«?ä½?ï¼?ç¾????¨å???¶ä??????????²é??©ï??¥å?ä½???æ±???线æ?§ä?æ»?ï¼??¢å???å°????æµ?深度衰é????

????è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?

????è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?

????2 ç¾??½ç?æµ?表é?¢ç¨³å®?ï¼?????è¡°é??é£???/STRONG>

????ç¾??½ç??????????ä¾??¶æ?¾è????ç¾?????CPI??æ¯?6.0ï¼?ï¼?????.4ï¼?ï¼????0.4ï¼?ï¼?????.5ï¼?ï¼???ç¬þ@??å¸??ºé??????¸å?CPI??æ¯?5.5ï¼?ä¸????¼æ??å¹³ï?ç¬þ@??å¸??ºé???ï¼????0.5ï¼?ï¼?????.4ï¼?ï¼?å°?å¹?è¶?è¿?å¸??ºé???ï¼?0.4ï¼?ï¼???

????2???????°æ?????°ä»¥ä¸??¹ç?¹ï?1ï¼??¸å???????主è?驱å?¨å??ä¾??¶æ???¸å????¡ï????0.6ï¼?ï¼??¸å?????????å·²è?ç»?ä¸??????±é??缩ï?1????2???????ä¸?.1ï¼?ï¼???ä»??¸å?CPI??3ä¸???å¹³å??å¹´å??æ°´å¹³??ï¼??¸å???????æ­¢è?????迹象??2ï¼?CPIä½??¿å??项价?¼ä??¶æ??ç»??å¢??????0.7ï¼?ï¼?ä¸????¼æ??å¹³ï???æ¯?8.2ï¼?ï¼?继续?·æ?°è??991å¹´æ??该å??项以?¥æ??é«?çº??ï¼?ä½??¿å??项æ???¹è???ç­?å¾???3ï¼?äº???è½þ?»·?¼å????ä¸?è¡?ï¼????-2.8ï¼?ï¼?????1.9ï¼?ï¼?ä½?ä¸??¹å??ä»·æ?¼å?å§???离ã???????°ä??¹å??ä»·æ?¼å?°é?¶å??»·?¼ä?导å??¨æ?¶æ?ï¼????¥ä???è½þ?»·?¼å??¨ä?è¡?空é?´ã??

????è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?

????ç¾??½æ?è´¹å????èµ????°å?ºæ?æ¶?å½¼é?¿ç?????¿ï????¥è???è­þ=???¶è?ä¸?é£??©ä?导ï??³é??è¿?ä¿¡è´·æ¸???对ç?æµ??ºæ???¢ç??è´???????线æ?§â???²å?»ã??1ï¼??¶å????????æ¸??¾ç?ï¼?2???¶å???????»é????ä¸???0.4ï¼?ï¼?å±?æ°?å®??????????¶å?¥ç???ä¸???0.5ï¼???2ï¼?ç¾??½æ?¿å?°äº§å¸??ºè??022å¹´å??å¼?å§???ç»??è¡?ï¼?è¿?????????å¼¹ï?2????å±???????å¹?58ä¸??·ï????å¢???4.5ï¼?ï¼???å±??????¿ä»·ä¸???°ç???ä¹?å½?å¾?11ä¸???以æ?¥ç??é¦?次å??????3ï¼?ç¾??½å?°äº§??èµ?????è¡?????ï¼?ç§?人ä?å®?建ç?许å?????°å?å·¥ç?人ä?å®????¾å??å¼¹ï???????????3.8ï¼???9.8ï¼???4ï¼?ç¾??½å·¥ä¸???产ä?稳ï?å·¥ä???产æ???°ç???ä¿???ä¸???ï¼??¶é??ä¸???æ¶?è´¹å??ç­?è¡?ä¸???产æ??????????

????ç¾??????????°å?å°±ä??»é??ä¾??¶å????强å?²ï?ç»???????ï¼?å°±ä?å¸??ºé??æ±???广度正å?¨ç¼©çª???2???????°å?å°±ä?31.1ä¸?人ï?è¾?1??å°?å¢?19.3ä¸?人ï?ä½?ä»?大å?è¶?è¿?å¸??ºé?????22.5ä¸?人ã??失ä???ä¸?.6ï¼?ï¼?è¾?ä¸???3.4ï¼?ä¸???0.2ä¸??¾å???¹ï??³å?¨å??ä¸???ä¸?2.5ï¼?ï¼?è¾?ä¸???62.4ï¼?å°?å¹?ä¸???0.1ä¸??¾å???¹ï???ç¬þ@??é¢?????ç»???ä¸?ï¼????¡ä??¾è??好ä??¶é??ä¸???13ä¸??人é????大类è¡?ä¸?ä¸????5ä¸??ä¸??ºç?°æ?°å?å°±ä?è´?å¢??¿ï?1????4ä¸??ä¸?å°±ä??¶ç¼©ï¼?2022å¹?2??ä»???2ä¸??ä¸?å°±ä??¶ç¼©??

????????å¹³å???¶è?????å¢????¾ç?????æ¯?ä¸?????2??ç¾??½é??????????0.24ï¼?ï¼?????.27ï¼?ï¼???æ¯?4.62ï¼?ï¼????¼ä¸º4.36ï¼?ï¼???ç¬þ@??å¸??ºé????????å¢???????¾ç?ä¸?ç¾??½å°±ä¸???广度????缩ç??¸å?¼å?ï¼????¶ä¼´????失ä?????????ï¼?ç¾??½å°±ä¸??¸å?³å?ä¸????????????³å?¨å??å¸??ºè?????å°?ç»?ç»???

????è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?

????3 ç¾????¨æ???©æ???½ä?为â????å®?ä¹?计â??ï¼??±æ?ºè?????è§?/STRONG>

????è¿???ï¼?ç¾??½ç?è°·é?¶è???ç­¾å???¶è???ç¬???±å???¶è???欧洲????ä¿¡é?¶è??¥è??????´é?·ä?件ã??并é??ä¸??ï¼?ç¾????¨é??¸´?????´ä¸ª?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºã????´¨????½å??????´ç???¶è?ç»??¥ç????¶å????èµ?产è??ºè¡¨?±æ?ºï?????????½é?¿æ??è´§å?çº??缺失????????管失ä½???

?????¨ç?è°·é?¶è??±æ?ºå??????ï¼?ç¾????¨æ?¨å??TFPå·¥å?·æ??ä¾?æµ??¨æ?§ï?ä»?ä¸??¨æ?¶é?´å?¶è?产è??ºè¡¨å°±å??åºþ=?©å?è¶?3000亿ç?????ç¾????¨ç´§?¥æ?©è¡¨ä»?为â????å®?ä¹?计â??ï¼?并æ??§£?³æ?次å?±æ?ºç??3ä¸??¹æ???§é???ï¼?1ï¼??²è?级å?????ï¼??????ºæ???????ºå?¸ä»¥å¸?ä»·ç?å½???å·¨ä?ï¼?2ï¼??¶è?å­?款ç??©æ???ä½?äº?è´§å?å¸??ºï??????¨é?¶è?ä¸?å­?款å?æµ?ï¼?3ï¼??¨å?±æ?ºå???§£?³ä?ï¼??¨è??ä¾??¶æ??大é??ä»?ä¸???¶è??????§å???¨ç????æ±??????¶å??次æ?©å???èµ?产è??ºè¡¨????äº?ç¾????¨å???¶é???????

????å¾??è§?è§???ï¼?1ï¼????²çº§????èµ?????æ±?????å¤??°å?款æ?ºæ????¸´æµ??¨æ?§å?²å?»ã??è¿??»ä?å¹´ï?ç¾????¨é??è¿?缩表使å?¶æ?»è?产è?模å??å°?ä»?çº?200亿ç???ï¼?è¿?ä¸??¨æ?©è¡¨?¥è?ä¸???????????ä»??äº??¶æ?©è¡¨è¿?è¡????????°ï?çº?500亿æ?¥è???è´´ç?°ç??£ï?1400亿æ?¥è???¶ä?信贷延å?项ç???BTFP???¨é??ä»?120亿ç?????

????2ï¼?è´´ç?°ç??£ç????级信贷ç?????¨ä½¿?¨é??å·²ç?大å?é«?äº?2020å¹´æ?°å???????????¨å³°?¼ï?并æ?¥è?2008å¹´ç???¨é??æ°´å¹³ï¼?è¿??¾ç¤º?ºç??½é?¶è?ä¸?????????ç»???¨è??延ã??

????3ï¼??±ä?BTFP???¥å??å®??¨è?产æ?µæ?¼ï?BTFP?¨é??ä½?????äº?ä¸?äº?????æµ??¨æ?§å?²å?»ç??ä¸???¶è?å®??¨è?产è?å°?ï¼???º«????é£??©è?½å??è¾?å·???

????è­þ=??ç¾?欧é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?è¡°é???²å?

????å®?è§?è§?è§???ï¼?è¿?ä¸????次å?ç«???é£??©ä?件ï?????å¾??????½æ?????ä¸?次系ç»??§ç??西æ?¹é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºã??ä½?为ä???主è?è´§å?????è¡???ï¼?ç¾????¨é?¿æ??è´§å?çº??缺失??è¿??»å??å¹´ç?´å???ºæ???±è???è´§å?ï¼???????æ¿?è¿??????大å?大å??????ç»?æµ??¾ç????©ç????????对ä??¶è?ä¸??¥è?ï¼??¨å????年大?¾æ°´??ä½??????ä¸?ï¼?å·¨é???¨è??æ¶??¥ï?大é??西æ?¹é?¶è?è¿?åºþ=????????以è?·å?é«?é¢??©æ¶¦??????ç¾?????0å¹´æ?¥æ?????????????¶ç´§?¶æ?¹ï??¶è?èµ?产ç?å½?å¾?å·¨ä???è´??ºç???ç»???¸´?¨è??æµ??ºï??´ä¸ªè¡?ä¸??½é??¸´æµ??¨æ?§ç´§å¼??????µã??å½???ç¾????¨ç?????©æ???½ä?为æ??å®?ä¹?计ï???æ³?解å?³é?¶è?ä¸???¸´???¹æ???§é?????å½?ä¸??±æ?ºå·²ç»?æ³¢å???°ä?ä¸???ç³»ç??§é??è¦??¶è?ï¼?å¾·æ??å¿??¶è?ç­??¶ä?欧洲?¶è?å°?????å®??¨ç?????????¥å?对ä?å½?ï¼??±æ?ºæ??å¿???ä¼?导å?°å?ä¸???¨æ?§ä??¶é??¸´???????????ºæ??ï¼?è¿???å¼????????±æ?ºå??ä¸???å¤??½ç???????ºå?¡å?±æ?ºã??

????4å¦?????ç»????µï?æµ·å?å°???¸´?????±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?深度衰é??ï¼???ä»???好ç??åº?对æ???¨å???¼ç?æµ?

????æµ·å??¶è??±æ?ºæ???´æ?¥å¸¦?¥é?????¡ä»¶?¶ç´§??????ï¼?è¿?????è¿?ä¿¡è´·æ¸???å½±å??å®?ä½???æ±?ï¼?????é«?????ï¼?????ç»?æµ?深度衰é?????¿æ??????é«??©ç????é«???????ä½????????¶ä»£è½???ï¼?????è¡?ä¸???è´§å?çº??????????管é??¸´?´å¤§????éª???

????å½???ï¼?西æ?¹ä¸­å°??¶è???å­?款æ??ç»????大é?¶è?ï¼????¼ä¸­å°??¶è??¶ç´§ä¿¡è´·é¢?åºþ

????å¦????¶è?ä¸?é£??©ä?妥å??å¤?ç½?????¥å?ä½?ç»?æµ???èµ??©ç??å°???ç»?????ï¼?ä¸??¹é??????¶ç??½å?æ°?è´·æ?ä»??????¶é??æ±?ï¼??þ???¹é?????é«?ä¼?ä¸???èµ?????????¶ä?ä¸??©å????¿ã????大ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡???????

?????????±æ?ºå?å¾?????线æ?§ä?导ï?å½?å¤?ä¸??????ºæ?????¶é???°å?±æ?ºæ?¶ï?å¸??ºå?ä¼??·å?¥æ?´å¤§????????æµ??¨æ?§æ?亡è?ºæ????å¦?????ç»????µï?ç¾??½æ??å°???¸´?????±æ?ºå??ç»?æµ?深度衰é??ï¼?è¿?对å?¨ç??ç»?æµ???å¤?è´¸é?½å?产ç??å¤?溢影????

????å½???ä¸??½æ?å¤?äº?å¤?????????ï¼?????è¿?å¾???º«ç¡??ä¸??½å??¡ä??¥æ????å±?ç»?æµ?ï¼??¨å???¼ç?æµ?????å±????²é??©æ??好ç???¹å?ºã??å¦????½å????¨ä»¥?°å?ºå»º?°è?½æ?é¢??????©å¤§????ç»?æµ?å¤???计å??ï¼????????±ä¸º?ºï?å°±å??2009å¹´ä??·ï?å¦???åº?对æ????ï¼?2023年中?½ç?æµ????????°å?é¢??¨ç????

??????é«??©ç??ï¼?é«?????ï¼?ä½???????????为æ???¥å¸¸????é«????????ä¸?ï¼?å¤???¨æ?????????²é??©é?´é??¸´?´è?°é?¾ç???¨æ?????©ã????ä»??为ç?欧é????ä¾??¶å?äº?é«?ä½?ï¼??¨é??©ä?件并??¤§å¹??¾æ?§å?溢æ?¶ï?ç¾?欧央è¡?è¿???»¥??????为主??????ä¸??¨ä??????ä¸?è¿?åºþ@????????ä¸?????¸´è½???ï¼???å°?å¸þ=?¥è???²å?????????ç»??æ³¢å?¨ç??ä¸???ï¼?å¦??¶è?头å?è°??´ï???è¦???èµ?é«??©ç??é«?é£??©è?产è?·å???·®ï¼?å°??´è???´å?????é£??©ã??

????æ­¤å?ï¼?西æ?¹å¤®è¡???¸´å¦?ä½?平衡?¶ç´§?¶è?ä¸???管å??å¤?ç½???©ä?件ç??两é?¾å??°ã???¥è?åºþ=?¶ç´§??管å???½ä???为å??死中å°??¶è?????????ä¸??¹ç¨»????å¼???骨ç????åº?ï¼??¥è?åºþ??注é??©ä?件å?ç½???????ä¸???¶è?é£??©å??ç§??为æ?´å¤§???????±æ?ºå??ä¸?ä¼?ç¬???

????2018å¹´ç????¨æ?¾æ?¾ç????管è?æ±?åº?该è???æº?????¶è?äº?100äº?2500亿ç????ä¸???¶è???ä¸?åº?è¢????ä»??¥æ??¨æ?§å????æµ?è¯?ï¼?????åº?å½???对å?ä»??ç½??´ä¸¥?¼æ?´å?¨é?¢ç?????°ã??æ­¤æ?ç¡?è°·é?¶è?äº?件中ï¼?FDIC?????©æ???½æ???´è???ï¼?è¦???äº?????25ä¸?ç¾???以ä???å­?款ï?å¼???äº??¶è?管ç??????å¾·é??©ã?????¥å?å½??£ä?ä¸???¶è??????§å??强è??º«???¨é??§ï??¿å??此类????????äº?件å??次å??????

?³é?????读ï? ?¶è?ä¸?

责任���??�nbsp;RF12607
精彩?¨è??
??è½½æ?´å?
?¨é?¨è?è®