ç¾????¨å?????¥è?尾声ï¼?å¯??¡æ???³ç??ä»?ä¹?ï¼?
??????????顾ä?ç¾????¨å??次å?????¨æ??ç»??????????????äº?ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°è¡°????äº?ä¸??¶æ?å¸??ºäº¤????主è??»è?????ç±»è?产表?°ä»¥??A?¡å???°ç???¹ç?¹ã???¸æ?äº?ç¾????¨é??????????????许æ???ä¸??´å??好ç???¶é?´è???¹ã??å½???ç¾????¨æ??½®????·²ç»??¥è?尾声ï¼???????º«å¯??¡å?²å?»æ??大ç???¶æ?å·²ç?è¿??»ï????????²ç?éª?ï¼?ç¾????¨ç????????°é???????ï¼??¤ç???å¤?????ç±»è?产ä?涨æ???é«?ï¼?A?¡æ¶¨å¹????ï¼?ä¸?å¤?表ç?°ä¸ºå¤§ç?????¿é??¼ï?涨å?å±?????è¡?ä¸?主è???ä¸??¨å??¶ç???©é?å¢??????¿æ?§è?强ç???¿å????
?????¸å?è§???/STRONG>
????·ç¾????¨ç???????????¸»è¦???为两类ï?ç¬??ï¼????????????¾æ?¾ç???失ä???è§þ@?è¿?ç»???????ç»?æµ??ºç?°æ???¾ä?æ»?ï¼?å¾?å¾?GDP?????å¹´ç??????ï¼???è¿?ï¼?ä¸????þ@?ºé???????©ç??è¶?è¿?CPI??æ¯?ä¼¼ä????????????å¿?è¦????????¡ä»¶??ç¬??ï¼??±ä?ä¸?äº?çª?????ç´?导è?´ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡?é£??©å?大ã??å¦?ï¼?2000å¹´ä???ç½?泡沫?´ç????
????·????°¾å£°ç????¨è????è®?£°??ç»??ºç????å¼???ç¾????¨å¹¶ä¸?ä¼??¨æ????ä¸?次å??????ä¼?è®????ç¡????????ï¼??³ä½¿????ä¸?次å?????è®????¹é?µå?¾ä?å¾?å¾??¾ç¤º???¥è???????©º?´ã??ä¸?è¿?ç¾????¨ä?è®?ºªè¦?ä¸???å?表述??????????ä¾?ä¸?äº?线索ï¼?ä¾?å¦?ï¼?????ä¸?äº?ç»?æµ?????å·²å?ºç?°è½¬??ï¼?以å??对é??©ä?件ç???³æ³¨åºþ=??????
????·ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°è¡°????äº??¶æ?????????次å?????????è¡°é??å¼?å§?ä¹???ï¼?ç¾????¨å?å¾?å·²ç?å¼?å§?é¢??²å????????æ¤å??»¥??ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°ç?æµ?è¡°é????为ä?ä¸??¶æ?ï¼?1ï¼?????两æ???????´ï?2ï¼?????ä¸?次å?????°ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å?????3ï¼???æ¢å?????°é?次é?????4ï¼?é¦?次é?????°è¡°??å¼?å§?ï¼?5ï¼?è¡°é?????´ã??
????·???¶æ?å¸??ºäº¤???»è???èµ?产表?°ã???¶æ?ä¸?ï¼?????两æ???????´ï??????????å½±å??ï¼??¤ç???å¤?ï¼??¡ç¥¨??????????ç¾?è´§å?å¤?ä¸?è·????¶æ?äº?ï¼?å¸??ºé???????æ¢å????¿®æ£ï??±æ?å¸þ=?¥ç??æµ??¨æ?§æ?¹å??为å??ºä¸»è¦?交æ???»è?ï¼???ç±»è?产ä?涨æ???é«?ï¼?æ¸??¡è¡¨?°å?ºè?大弹?§ã???¶æ?ä¸?ï¼?è®????è®?¡®è®¤å?????¨æ??ç»???ï¼?è¡°é??é¢???æ¸?èµ·ï?ä¸??´å?°é???????ï¼?ç¾??ºé???æ¶???¶ä?????è·?ï¼?对è?¡å?å½±å??ä¸??????¶æ???ï¼?ä»??????å§?ï¼?å¸??ºå?è¡°é????é¢???强å??ï¼?ä¸??´å?°å?ºç?°è¡°??ä¹???ï¼?é»?????ç¾??ºä?涨继ç»??æ¶??ç¾??????°ä?è·?ï¼?ç¾??¡å?ä¸?è·?ï¼??¶ä??¡å?好ä?ç¾??¡ã???¶æ?äº?ï¼?ç»?æµ?è¡°é?????´ï?é»?????ç¾??ºï??¡ç¥¨ï¼??¶ä?????ï¼?纳æ??¾¾??表ç?°æ?´å¥½??
????·ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°è¡°??ï¼?A?¡è¡¨?°å?ºå?ä¸??¹ç?¹ï?1ï¼?ç¾????¨æ????两æ???????´ï?A?¡æ¶¨è·?????ï¼?表ç?°å·®å¼?主è?æº?äº??½å??ç»?æµ????¿ç????ï¼?2ï¼?ç¾????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°é???????ï¼?å¤??´æ??¨æ?§æ?¹å??驱å???A?¡ä?涨æ???é«?ï¼?ä¸?涨å????ï¼?3ï¼?é£??¼ä?ï¼?ç¾????¨ç????????°é???????ï¼?????äº?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è¡???å¢???èµ???ï¼?A?¡å?表ç?°ä¸ºå¤§ç?????¿é??¼ï?ä¼??¿è?ä¸?主è???ä¸??¨å??¶æ???¿æ?§è?强ã?????©é?å¢????¿å??ï¼?4ï¼?ç¾????¨é?????å¸??ºä?ä¸?å®???¥½æ¶??????为å?å¾?ä¼´é?????±æ?ºæ??è¡°é??ï¼???è¿?ä¸?次ç????¨é?????°è¡°???????¡å?ä¸?è·???
????·??½®?????¥è?尾声ï¼?å¯??¡å½±??å¦?ä½?ï¼??????½å??ç»?æµ???åº?å¤???ï¼?å°?å¼?导ä?ä¸????©é??æ¸?è¿??¥ä?è¡??¨æ??ï¼?å¯??¡æ??ä¾??ºæ???¢æ????????ç¾????¨å????·²ç»?è¿??¥å°¾å£°ï?综å??ç¾??½é??????失ä?????????以å???¶è?ä¸?é£??©ä?件ï?5??ä¸???????æ¦????¨å?大ï???????º«å¯??¡å?²å?»æ??大ç???¶æ???å·²è??»ã??å¦??????¥é?¶æ???????°æ???导å??ºå¼º??5??ä¸????????ï¼?????ç±»è?产ä?涨æ???é«?ï¼?A?¡å?è¿??¥å?ºæ???¢å??ä¸???å¤??¨æ??¨æ?§æ?¹å???????»ã????å¦???ç¾??½å??????°æ???è¶?é¢????????½å?å¯???继ç»??????é¢???ï¼?ä½?A?¡å?¨å?ºæ???¢æ????ä¸?ä»???????å¾?ä¸?????表ç?°ã???´ä?继ç»??å¥??¡æ???¿é??¼ï??³æ³¨é«????¿æ?§ç???»è????ä¿¡æ???????¿å????
????·é£??©æ??示ï?æµ·å?é£??©ä?件è?ä¸?æ¥æ?©æ?£ï??½å??ç»?æµ?å¤???ä¸???é¢???
???????
????
????è¿??»ä¸¤å¹´ï?????ç»?æµ?è¿??¥ç???????¨æ??ï¼?ç¾????¨è´§å¸??¿ç???å¥???紧缩é¢?????æ¯?次å????ï¼??½ç?µå?¨ç???¨ç??èµ?????ºç??ç¥?ç»?ï¼??¹å????021å¹´ä???年以?¥ï??¨ç?????aper??ä¿?ä¹??²ç???ç¾????¨æ?è¿???????缩表??è¿?ç¨?ä¸??ç¾??????°å??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç??????æ¯?次快??走强?½å?A?¡äº§??äº??¶æ??§ç???²å?»ã??è¿???023年以??ï¼?ç¾????¨è´§å¸??¿ç???æ¸?è¿??¥æ?°é?¶æ?ï¼??????¨æ???¥è?尾声ï¼??¨ç??æµ??¨æ?§ç???è½???ï¼?è¿?å°???为影?????¥é?¶æ??¨ç??èµ?产é??ç½??»è?以å??A?¡å??ºè??å¥???é£??¼ç???³é??????????????顾ä???次ç????¨å??次å?????¨æ??ç»??????????è¯þ>?????äº?ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°è¡°????äº?ä¸??¶æ?å¸??ºäº¤????主è??»è?????ç±»è?产表?°ä»¥??A?¡å???°ç???¹ç?¹ã???¹æ??????ç»???ï¼??¸æ?äº?ç¾????¨é??????????????许æ???ä¸??´å??好ç???¶é?´è???¹ï?ç¾????¨ç????????°é???????ï¼?æµ??¨æ?§æ?¹å??????ºç??主è?交æ???»è?ï¼??¤ç???å¤?????ç±»è?产ä?涨æ???é«?ï¼?A?¡æ¶¨å¹??????é£??¼ä?ï¼?????äº?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è¡???å¢???èµ???ï¼?A?¡å?表ç?°ä¸ºå¤§ç?????¿é??¼ï?ä¼??¿è?ä¸?ä¸?å°½ç?¸å??ï¼?以å??¶æ???¿æ?§è?强ã?????©é?å¢???è¡?ä¸?为主??å±??????¥ï?????ç¾????¨å?????¥è?尾声ï¼???????º«å¯??¡å?²å?»æ??大ç???¶æ???å·²è??»ï???ä¸?èµ?????????æµ?ï¼?A?¡å???æ¸?è¿??¥å?ºæ???¢å??å¤??¨æ??¨æ?§æ?¹å???????»ï?继ç»??好æ???¿é??¼è¡¨?°ï??³æ³¨ä»?å¹´æ????å®??°ä?绩é?å¢???é«????¿æ?§ç???»è????ä¿¡æ????????
????01
????ç¾????¨å??次å?????¨æ??èµ°å??ç»??¹ç??????/STRONG>
???????²ä?ç¾????¨å??æ¢å????¹¶??æ¸?å¼??????????¶é?´å????981å¹???-1981å¹?1????1989å¹???-1989å¹?????1995å¹???-1995å¹?????2000å¹???-2001å¹?????2006å¹???-2007å¹?????2018å¹?2??-2019å¹?????
????
????1??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿ä????þ@?ºé???????©ç??
????ä»????²æ?°æ???¥ç??ï¼???次ç????¨å????????GDPå¢????½å?ºç?°ç?¸å????¾ç??ä¸?æ»?ï¼?GDP?????å¹´ç??å¤?????ï¼???è¿???å½?GDPå¢???è¿?å¿??ç»?æµ?è¿????ç¾????¨å°±ä¼????¶å?ºæ??ï¼?ä¸?è°????þ@?ºé???????©ç??ï¼?ç»?ç»?æµ???温ï???å½?GDPå¢?????¸´ä¸?è¡?é£??©ï?ç»?æµ??ºæ???¢é?????å·??ç¾????¨ä?????????»¥å¯¹å?²ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡???é£??©ã???·ä??¥ç??ï¼?1981Q2ç¾???DP?????å¹´ç??大å?ä¸?æ»???2.9ï¼?ï¼??¾ç¤ºç»?æµ?è¡°é??????å¢?大ï?1981å¹???????ä¸?次å??????1995Q1ç¾???DP?????å¹´ç??ä»???????4.7ï¼?????.4ï¼?ï¼?1995å¹???为æ??½®????ä¸?次å?????3????æ¢å??????2006å¹???ç¾????¨å??????ï¼??????2006Q2ç¾???DP?????å¹´ç??ä»???????5.5ï¼?å¿???????ï¼?ï¼?ç»?æµ?å¢??¿å¿«??ä¸?è¡?ï¼?2006å¹???ç¾????¨å??æ¢å??????2018å¹?2??ç¾????¨å??????ï¼?2018Q4??GDP?????å¹´ç??????.7ï¼?ï¼?2019å¹???ç¾????¨å?³å??æ¢å??????æ¤å?ï¼?2000å¹´ä???年尽管ç??½ç?æµ?ä¾??¶ä???äº?é«???å¢??¿ï?ä½?????2000å¹???äº???泡沫?´ç???ç»?æµ?ä¸?è¡?????忧å???§ï???æ¤ç????¨å??000å¹?????????ï¼?6??ä¸????????2000Q3ç¾???DP?????å¹´ç??å·²é????.4ï¼???
????
????2??????ä¸????þ@?ºé???????©ç??
????ä»???次ç????¨å?????¨æ??ç»???????PCE???????¥ç??ï¼?ç¾????¨å??????¹å?åº?对ä?PCE??æ¯?å¢?å¹???顶é?¨å?ºé?´ï??????????PCE??头å??ä¸??????ºæ??µ°å¹³ã??ä½????äº???ä¸?ä¸?çº?0年代??è¶?级é?????¨æ??ï¼????????ä¸?ä»?è¦?PCE?ºç?°æ???¹ï????¶è???è¦?PCEå·²ç?ç§?´¯ä¸?å®?ç¨?åºþ>????å¹?ï¼??ºç?°æ?è¾????¾ç??ä¸?????
????
?????þ@?ï¼??¨å??次ç????¨å??????¹ï????þ@?ºé???????©ç??ä¸?????è¶?è¿?äº?ç¾???PI??æ¯?å¢???ï¼?è¿?ä¼¼ä???????¨ç?????????ä¸?ä¸??è¦????????¡ä»¶??
????
????3??å°±ä?ä¸????þ@?ºé???????©ç??
????失ä?????????¨è??´å?ºå???©ç??????è¦?????????ï¼??????¨æ??ç»??¹å?ºæ???åº?äº?失ä?????åº????ä¸?失ä???è¿?ç»?¸¤ä¸???????????????æ¢æ???è¾?大ã???·ä??¥ç??ï¼?2000å¹???ç¾??½å¤±ä¸?????ä½?????.8ï¼?ï¼?2000å¹???16?¥ç????¨å?????5??ç¾??½å¤±ä¸?????????ï¼?ï¼?6??ä»???ï¼?ï¼?6??ç¾????¨ä?????????2006å¹???ç¾??½å¤±ä¸???????.6ï¼?ï¼?2006å¹???ä»???.6ï¼?ï¼?6???????7??失ä?????????.7ï¼?ï¼?8??8?¥ç????¨ä?è®??????????2018å¹?0??ç¾??½å¤±ä¸?????????.8ï¼?ï¼?11??继ç»ä¸?.8ï¼?ï¼?12??20?¥ç??ä¼?è®?????¨ç»§ç»??????2018å¹?2????2019å¹???失ä???è¿?ä¸?æ¥å??????.9ï¼???4ï¼?ï¼?1??ä¼?è®?????¨å??æ¢å??????
????
????4??ç¾????¨å??次å?????¨æ??ç»????????»ç?
????
??????顾å??次ç????¨å?????¨æ????»¥???°ï?ç¾????¨ç????????¨æ??????¸»è¦???为两类ã??ç¬??ï¼??¨å????´§ç¼©æ?¿ç???å½±å??ä¸?ï¼????????????¾æ?¾ç???失ä???è§þ@?è¿?ç»?????ï¼?ç»?æµ??ºç?°æ???¾ä?æ»?ï¼?å¾?å¾?GDP?????å¹´ç??????ï¼???è¿???ç¬??ï¼??±ä?ä¸?äº?çª?????ç´?导è?´ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡?é£??©å?大ã??å¦?ï¼?2000å¹´ä???ç½?泡沫?´ç???ç¾????¨å???¶ç???????»¥åº?对å???½å?ºç?°ç??ç»?æµ?ä¸?è¡?é£??©ã??
????02
????????°¾å£°ç????¨è????è®?£°??ç»??ºç????å¼?
????ç¾????¨å?å¾?并ä?ä¼??¨è????è®????ç¡??????¨æ??ç»???ï¼?????¾¹èµ°è¾¹??ï¼??¹æ???°æ??????è°??´æ?¿ç???å¥???ä½????¨ç????¨ä?è®?ºªè¦?????ä¸???¶æ??å?表述??????å¾?å¾??½å?ç»?å¸??ºæ??ä¾?ä¸?äº???迹å??¾ª??线索ï¼???è¿?äº?表述??????å¾?å¾?ä¹????导å??ºé???????è¦???????
????1??对ç?æµ?èµ°å?¿ç????è¿°å?ºç?°è½¬??
????å°½ç?å¤??°æ?¶å??ç¾????¨å?ç»?æµ?æ´»å?¨ã????????å°±ä??¹å??ä¸????ºæ???¤æ??»´??ä¸???ï¼?ä½??¨å????°¾å£°é?¶æ???声æ??ä¸??å¤?使ç?¨è?æ¥è?ï¼?????ä¸?äº?ç»?æµ?????å·²ç??ºç?°ä?è½?????ä¾?å¦?ï¼?1995å¹?????ä¼?è®?ºªè¦?ä¸????°ï???????æ¥è¿¹è±¡æ?¾ç¤ºç»?æµ?å¢??¿æ?????¾ç?????2006å¹´æ????两æ??????è®?£°??ä¸????°â??ç»?æµ?æ£å?¨ä?强å?²ç??å¢??¿ä¸?¾ç?ï¼?è¿??¨ä?å®?ç¨?åºþ??????äº??¿å?°äº§å¸??ºç????æ¸???温以???©ç?????½æ?ä»·æ?¼ä?涨ç??æ»?????åº????????????¶é?´ç???¨ç§»ï¼??»é??æ±?å¢??¿ç???¾ç????©ä????¶é??????????ç?ï¼?并ä??¸æ?äº?2006å¹???ä¼?è®???表述ï¼?6??å°???????é¢???ä»??¶å???§â??è°??´ä¸º??????é¢???ä¹?å¾??°ä??§å?¶â??ï¼????³ç??å½±å????????ä¸?ä¸???è¦???ç´??ºç?°ä?å®?è´¨æ?§ç??????ï¼?è¿?ä¹????£è½®????ä¸?次å????????018å¹´æ????两æ??????è®?£°??ä¸????°â??家åº???ºç»§ç»?¼º?²å??¿ï?ä½?ä¼?ä¸??ºå???èµ???å¢????¸è?ä¹????????¾ç?????
????2????ç»??³æ³¨å¹¶è?ä¼°å?¨ç??ç»?æµ?????é£???/STRONG>
????对ä??¨ç???°ç??¿æ²»ç»?æµ??²ç?以å??é»?天é?äº?件ï?ç¾????¨ä???ç»??³æ³¨å¹¶è?ä¼°å?¶å?ç¾??½å???¨ç??ç»?æµ???????ä¸??©å½±??ï¼?并æ?¹æ?????????è°??´è´§å¸??¿ç?ï¼?以å??²ä??©å??ç´?对ç?æµ????????²å?»ã??æ¯?å¦?ï¼???018å¹´æ????两æ??????è®?£°??ä¸??ç¾????¨æ??????ç»?æµ???????¸´??é£??©å¤§?´å¹³è¡¡ï?ä½??¶å?继ç»??æµ??¨ç??ç»?æµ?????????å±?ï¼?并è?ä¼°å?¶å?ç»?æµ???????å½±å????ï¼?ç»???å½??¶è´¸???©æ?þ@??¨ç??ç»?æµ???????å½±å??ï¼???»¥???ºå??¶ç????¨æ??ç»??³æ³¨ç»?æµ?ä¸?è¡?é£??©ï?并é???¶å??å¤?è°??´è´§å¸??¿ç?åº?对ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡???????
????3??????ä¸?次å?????è®????¹é?µå??/STRONG>
?????¶å??¨ç????¨æ????ä¸?次å??????è®????è®??ï¼?ç¾????¨å?äº???????????¹é?µå?¾å¹¶ä¸?ä¼??´æ?¥ç??ºæ??å¼???ä¾?å¦?ï¼?2018å¹?2??ç¾????¨è????è®????¹é?µå?¾æ?¾ç¤ºï¼?2019å¹´ç????¨å???½å????次ï?å°½ç??¸æ?äº?2018å¹????¹é?µå?¾ç??????次æ??????å°?ï¼?ä½?ä»??????????????å¼???ä¸?è¿?ä»?2019å¹???å¼?å§?ç¾????¨å?³å??æ???????è¿?è¿?ä¸?æ¥è¡¨??ç¾????¨å?äº???æ¢å???????¶ç?¹ä???¾¹èµ°è¾¹?????¹æ????ºå???????ºç???³ç?ï¼???并ä?ä¼??¨æ????ä¸?次å?????è®????¶å??å°±æ??ç¡?????????¹ï??¹æ????????????ï¼?2018å¹?2??GDP?????å¹´ç??大å?ä¸?????.7ï¼?以å??失ä???è¿?ç»?????ç??½ä¸ºç¾????¨å??019å¹?????æ¢å??????ä¾?äº??°æ????????
????
????
????03
????ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°è¡°????äº??¶æ???ç±»è?产表??/STRONG>
????ä»????²æ?¥ç??ï¼??¤ä?1981年以å¤?ï¼?ç¾????¨å??次å???????ä¹???ä¸??¨è¡°??å¼?å§?ä¹???ï¼?ç¾????¨å?å¾?å·²ç?å¼?å§??????ä¹?å°±æ??????¨å?å¾?ä¼??????°æ???¥ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡???????å¼?????²å???????è¿??·å°±??»¥??ç¾????¨å?????°è¡°??ä¹??´å??为以ä¸?äº?ä¸??¶æ?ï¼?1ï¼?????两æ???????´ï?2ï¼?????ä¸?次å?????°å??æ¢å?????è®??3ï¼???æ¢å?????°é?次é?????4ï¼?é¦?次é?????°è¡°??å¼?å§?ï¼?5ï¼?è¡°é?????´ã??
????
??????è¿?????ï¼??¨ä»¥ä¸????¶æ?ï¼?å¸??ºå?äº?ç¾????¨è´§å¸??¿ç???è¡°é????主å?交æ???»è?以å????ç±»è?产表?°ç??è§?å¾?å¦?ä¸??¾æ??示ã??
????
????1??ç¾????¨å?????¨æ??????两æ???????´å??ç±»è?产表??/STRONG>
????ä»???次ç????¨å????°¾å£°å??ç±»è?产ç??表ç?°æ?¥ç??ï¼??¨æ????两æ???????´ï?ç¾????¨å???????对æ????å¸??ºã??????????ç¾?è´§å?ä»??¶æ????ä¸?å®??????¶ä????å¤?表ç?°ä¸ºä¸?è·?ï¼??·ä?å¦?ä¸?ï¼?
?????¡ç¥¨å¸??ºï??¨ç???¡ç¥¨å¸??ºå?表ç?°ä¸ºä¸?è·?ï¼??¶ä¸?°å?´å??ºè?å¹??´å¤§??ç¾??½è?¡ç¥¨å¸??ºä?ï¼????¼æ??·¥ä¸????°è¡¨ï¼?????00???°ï?纳æ??¾¾?????°ï??´ä???ï¼?ä»·å?¼è?¡è¡¨?°ä?äº????¿é??¼ã??
????大å?????ï¼??¤å??æ²¹å?ï¼??¶ä?大å?????ä¸?è·?æ¦????´é???ç»?计ç????¾ç¤ºï¼??¨ç????¨æ?è½??????¨æ??????两æ???????´ï???æ²¹ä?涨æ???è¾¾å??5ï¼?以ä?ï¼???é»???å¤?表ç?°ä¸ºä¸?è·?ï¼???????ç?å·¥ä???å±?ä¸?è·?æ¦???è¾?é«???
????è´§å?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?æ¶????ç¾?è´§å?ä¸?è·???ç»?计ç????¾ç¤ºï¼?è¿?ä¸??¶æ?ç¾??????°ç»§ç»?µ°é«???æ¦???è¾¾å??3ï¼?ï¼?ä¸???è´§å??¥ç??ï¼?欧å?????±é?????¥å??ç??¸å?ç¾?????大æ???è´??¼ã??人æ?å¸??¸å?ç¾?????è´??ä¸?ï¼?并ä?è´??¼å?åºþ>?¸å???????
????ç¾??ºï??¨ç????¨å??????两æ???????´å??å¹´æ??ç¾??ºè?ä¸?æ¥èµ°é«?æ¦???ä¸?é«?ï¼?ä¸?ä¸?è¡?å¹?åºþ=????ï¼?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????å¾?å¾??©ä??????¨æ??è§?顶ï?è¿?ä¸??¶æ?ç¾??ºç????ç½??§ä»·æ¯?å·²ç?å¼?å§??¸æ?¾ã???·ä??¥ç??ï¼???å¹´æ??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç?????¨æ????两æ???????´ä?è¡?æ¦???ä¸?0ï¼?ï¼?并ä??³ä½¿ä¸?è¡?ï¼??¶å????å¹?åºþ??ä¸?大ï?两æ?ä¸?è¡?å¹?åºþ@????¸º0.25ï¼???0.09ï¼???
????
????2??ç¾????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å??????´è?产表??/STRONG>
????ç¾????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°ä?次ä?è®?¡®è®¤å??æ¢å??????´ï??¨ç?æµ??°æ????ç¾????¨é???管ç????ä½??¨ä?ï¼?å¸??ºå?ç¾????¨ç???????????æ¸?????æ¢å?????è¡?ä¿??ï¼?è¿?ä¸??¶æ?ï¼????????é¢?????å¸þ=?¥ç??æµ??¨æ?§æ?¹å??为å??ºä¸»è¦?交æ???»è?ï¼???ç±»è?产å??表ç?°å?ºè?é«???ä¸?涨æ???ï¼??·ä?å¦?ä¸?ï¼?
?????¡ç¥¨å¸??ºï??¨ç???¡å?大æ???ä¸?涨ã??????å¸??ºå?å§?é¢???ç¾????¨å???????ï¼?ç¾????¨æ?¿ç?紧缩对æ????å¸??ºç?????¶ä??¨é??æ¸?解é?¤ï?é£??©å??好å????ï¼??¨ç???¡å?å¤???å¼¹ï?ç¾??¡å??ºä?ï¼?纳æ??¾¾?????°ç?¸æ????¼æ?????°è¡¨?°å?ºæ?´å¤§??å¼¹æ?§ï?A?¡å?¨æ??è¿???次ç????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å??????´ä?涨æ???è¾¾å??5ï¼???
????大å?????ï¼???æ²¹å??é»?????å¼¹ï?å·¥ä???å±?ç±»å????表ç?°ä?ä½?è¿·ã??究å?¶å????ï¼??¨ç????¨å??????æ¸?ç»?????é¢???ä¹?ä¸?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?è¡?ï¼?ç¾???计价??大å?????????ä¸?涨ã??
????è´§å?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?è·?ï¼???ç¾?è´§å?å¤???å¼¹ã??
????ç¾??ºï?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????继ç»ä¸?è¡?ï¼?????ç¾??ºè?·å?æ£æ?¶ç????æ¦???è¾¾å??00ï¼???å¦?????è¿°ï?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç?????¶å??¨å???????ä¹???就已ç»?è§?顶ï??????????é¢???å¼?导ç??ºæ?¶ç????è¿?ä¸?æ¥ä?è¡?ï¼?ç¾??ºæ??èµ?ä»·å?¼å?¸æ?¾ã??
????
????3??ç¾????¨ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å?????°å?å§???????ç±»è?产表??/STRONG>
?????¨æ????ä¸?次å??????ä¸?次ä?è®??ï¼?ç¾????¨ä??????????ç¡???????¨æ??ç»???ï¼?ä»?è¿?ä¸??¶å??å¼?å§?ä¸??´å?°ç????¨å?????????´ï?å¸??ºäº¤?????»è???æ¸?è½???è¡°é??é¢???ï¼?ä½??¶å½±??主è?ä½??°ä¸ºå¯¹å¤§å®??????????¶ï?对è?¡ç¥¨å¸??ºç??è´??¢å½±??ä¸?????
?????¡ç¥¨å¸??ºï??¨ç???¡å?涨è?????ï¼?A?¡è¡¨?°æ?´å¥½??????ç¾????¨ç¡®è®¤ç????????å¸??ºé??©å??好ç????继ç»???°æ?????A?¡ã??ç¾??¡ã??æ¸??¡ä?涨æ?????è¶?è¿?50ï¼?ï¼??¶ä¸A?¡å????äº?ç¾??????°å??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è¡?以å??人æ?å¸????¼ï??¨æ??è¿???次ç????¨ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å?????°é???????¶æ??½è¡¨?°ä¸ºä¸?涨ã??
????大å?????ï¼?é»???继ç»ä¸?æ¶???¶ä?大å?????å¤?ä¸?è·???究å?¶å????ï¼?????ç¾????¨å?????¨æ??ç»???ï¼?ç¾??????°å??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è¡?ï¼?é»???继ç»ä¸?æ¶??ä½?ä¸?æ¤å???¶ï?è¡°é??é¢???æ¸?èµ·ï???æ²¹ã????å±?ç?大å????????¨ç????æ±?è½?¼±??忧è??ä¸?è·???
????è´§å?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?è·?ï¼?欧å????å¼¹ï??¶ä?è´§å??¸æ?ç¾???涨è?ä¸?ä¸???
????ç¾??ºï?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????继ç»ä¸?è¡?ï¼?????ç¾??ºå?ºæ???·å?æ£æ?¶ç????å¦?????è¿°ï?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç?????¶å??¨å???????ä¹???就已ç»?è§?顶ï?????¡®è®¤ç?????ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????è¿?ä¸?æ¥ä?è¡?ï¼?ç¾??ºæ??èµ?ä»·å?¼å?¸æ?¾ã??
????
????4??ç¾????¨å?å§??????°ç¡®è®¤è¡°????ç±»è?产表??/STRONG>
????ç¾????¨å??æ¢å??????ï¼?????对ç?æµ?è¿?ä¸?æ¥ä?è¡?????忧æ?????±ä?ä¸?äº?é£??©ä?件ç???ºç?°ï?ç¾????¨å?????²å???????ç¾??½å?½å?ç»?æµ???究æ??对ç?æµ?è¡°é?????¹å????¤æ??????ï¼????ç»?计ï?ä»??????°ç¡®è®¤è¡°?????´ï?é»?????ç¾??ºä?涨ç??ç¡???§è?é«?ï¼?ç¾??????°å¤§æ¦???ä¸?è·???????å¸??ºä?ï¼???æ½??¨ç??ç»?æµ?è¡°é??é¢???å½±å??ï¼?ç¾??¡å?ä¸?è·?ï¼??¶ä??¡ç¥¨å¸??ºæ¶¨è·???????
????
????5??ç¾??½ç?æµ?è¡°é?????´å??ç±»è?产表??/STRONG>
????以ç??½å?½å?ç»?æµ???究æ????å®???ç»?æµ?è¡°é???ºé?´ä¸º?ºç?ï¼?ç»?计å??次ç??½ç?æµ?è¡°é?????´å?¨ç??大类èµ?产ç??表ç?°ã??
????ç¬??ï¼?ç¾??½ç?æµ?è¡°é?????´ç????大类èµ?产表?°ï?é»?????ç¾??ºï??¡ç¥¨ï¼??¶ä???????
????ç¬??ï¼??¡ç¥¨å¸??ºæ?¥ç??ï¼??¡å?ä¸?è·?æ¦???é«?ï¼???è¾¾å??ºè¡¨?°ç?¥ä?äº??°å?´å??ºï?ç¾??¡è¡¨?°æ?´ä?ä¼?äº??¶ä??¡å?ï¼?å°¤å?¶çº³??¾¾?????°ç??表ç?°ç?¸å??´å¥½ï¼?ä¸?涨æ???è¾¾å??1ï¼???
?????·ä??¥ç??ï¼??¤ä?2008å¹´é?????±æ?ºå??1973-1975å¹´ç?ä¸?次ç?³æ²¹?±æ?ºå?èµ·ç??è¡°é??å¤?ï¼?ç¾??¡å?¨å?¶ä?è¡°é???ºé?´ä?涨æ??è·?å¹?????ï¼?究å?¶å????ï¼??¨ç?æµ??·å?¥è¡°??????ç¾??ºæ?¶ç?????????ºé?´ï?ç¾??¡å·²????è°??´ï?ä¸?å®?ç¨?åºþ=???äº?ç»?æµ?è¡°é??é¢???ï¼?ä¸?ç¾??½è¡°???ºé?´å?对å?äº??????¨æ??ï¼?æµ??¨æ?§é©±?¨é????主å?????纳æ??¾¾?????°è¡¨?°ä???以好äº?ç¾??¡å?¶ä????°ï?主è???为纳??¾¾??å¸??ºä»¥??ç§???ç±»è?¡ç¥¨ä¸ºä¸»ï¼????¿å??§å¼ºï¼??¨ç?æµ?è¡°é?????´å????äº?宽æ?¾ç??æµ??¨æ?§ç????????´å¥½??表ç?°ã??
??????è¾¾å??ºè¡¨?°ä???以ä?äº??°å?´å??ºï???主è???为å?¨ç?æµ?è¡°é?????¿é?©æ??ç»??ï¼??°å?´å??ºé??¸´ä¸?å®???èµ???æµ??ºå????ï¼?IIF?°æ???¾ç¤ºï¼?2001å¹´æ???´æ?°å?´å??ºç??èµ???æµ??¥æ???¾æ?¾ç?ï¼?2008å¹´å??2020å¹´å??4ä¸??????´æ?°å?´å??ºï?ä¸???¸?½ï??¡å?èµ??????????¾æ??ºã??
????ç¬??ï¼?ç¾??½è¡°?????´ï?大å?????å¸??ºï???油大å¹?ä¸?è·?ï¼????????°æ?´ä?ä¸?è·???????é»???表ç?°å?ºè?强ç?????¨æ??å±??§ï???0年代以æ?¥ç????次ç?æµ?è¡°é??ä¸??次ä?涨ã???¨å?¨ç??ç»?æµ??¨æ??ä¸?è¡????¶å??ï¼?顺å?¨æ??????????¸´??æ±?ä¸?æ»?????ä»·æ?¼ä?è·?????ï¼???é»???ä½?为ç?¹æ????????·æ???¿é?©å??§ï??????¨ç?æµ?è¡°é???????µä??´å?èµ???è´?¹°é»???ï¼???????ä»·ä?涨ã??
????ç¬???ï¼?å¤?æ±?å¸??ºä?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?涨æ????¥é?ï¼?欧å??å¤??¸å?ç¾???è´??¼ï????¥å??å¤??¸å?ç¾??????¼ã??
?????±ä?欧å???¨ç??????°ä¸??æ¯?è¾¾å??0ï¼?以ä?ï¼???以ç??????°ç??èµ°å?¿å?大ç?åºþ@???³ä?ç¾?欧æ??????½ç?¶æ?ç¾??¥ç??ç»?æµ??¨æ???¸å?³æ?§è?é«?ï¼?ç¾??½ä??¥æ??DPå¢????¸å?³æ??.71ï¼?ç¾??½ä?欧洲GDPå¢????¸å?³æ??.83ï¼?ï¼?ä½?ä»?å??¨ç?¸å?强弱ï¼??¨ç??½ç?æµ?è¡°é???ºé?´ï?欧å???ºç?æµ?æ¯?ç¾??½æ?´å·®ï¼???ç¾??????°å?ä¸?涨ã??ä½??¥æ???æµ??¥å¥½äº?ç¾??½ï?å°¤å??008-2009å¹´ç??è¡°é??ä¸??ï¼??????¥æ???ºå???©ç??ä¿???ä¸?????ç¾??½è?ç»?¤§å¹??????2000å¹´ç??è¡°é??ä¸??ï¼???以æ?¥å???¸å?ç¾???å¤????¼ã??就人æ°?å¸?æ±?????è¨?ï¼??????°äººæ°?å¸?æ±????¹é?©ï???000年以????ä¸?次衰??ä¸??人æ?å¸??¸å?ç¾???表ç?°ç¨³?¥ï????¼æ??ä»???å°?å¹?è´??¼ã??
????
????04
????ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?A?¡å???¶é??¼æ??ä½?å½±å??ï¼?
????1??ç¾????¨å????°¾å£??¡æ?´ä?表ç??/STRONG>
????ä»????²ç?计æ???µæ?¥ç??ï¼?ç¾????¨å????°¾å£°å?°è¡°?????´ï?A?¡è¡¨?°å?ºå?ä¸??¹ç?¹ï?
????ç¬??ï¼??¨ç????¨æ????两æ???????´ï?A?¡æ¶¨è·?????ï¼?导è?´å?¶è¡¨?°å·®å¼?????????主è??¨ä??½å??ç»?æµ????¿ç????·ä??¥ç??ï¼?1994.11-1995.2ç¾????¨æ????两æ????????´ï?A?¡æ???¾ä?è·?ï¼?1995å¹´å??人æ??¶è???é«?è´·æ??©ç??ä¸?å¹´å?¨å?½é????ä¼?è®????ºè?å®?è¡???åºþ??ç´§ç??è´§å??¿ç???2018å¹?0-12??ç¾????¨æ????两æ??????????¡ä?è·?ï¼?å½??¶å?½å??社è??å¢???ä»??¨ç?åº??¶æ?ï¼???????????¸æ?ä¹?ä¸?ï¼?2000å¹?-5??ï¼?å½??¶å?½å??ç»?æµ?ä¼?稳å????ï¼?2006å¹?-6??ï¼??½å??ç»?æµ?ä»??¨ç»§ç»??è¡?ï¼?社è??é«?å¢?ï¼?ä¼?ä¸????©å???????ï¼?è¿?äº??½å?ç¾????¨æ????两æ???????´ç??A?¡å½¢??????ï¼???以è?两个?¶æ?A?¡å???????涨ç????
????ç¬??ï¼?ä»?ç¾????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????´å?°é???????ï¼?A?¡ä?涨æ???æ¯?è¾?é«?ï¼?ä¸?涨å????ï¼?主è?æ¼?ç»???????´æ??¨æ?§ç????¹å?????¨ç??ç»?æµ?è¡°é?????³ç?????µä???æµ??¨æ?§é©±?¨é?»è???ç»???A?¡é??¸´????å¤??¨ç???ï¼??¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°ç????¨å?????????´ï?ä¼´é????å¸??ºå?ç¾????¨å??????????³è½¬??宽æ?¾é?????????æ¼?ç»?ï¼?人æ?å¸??¸å?ç¾?????ä¸?å®????¼ï????©ä?å¼?导å?èµ?æµ??¥å¹¶å¯??¡å½¢??æµ??¨æ?§æ???????þ???¹é???è¿?ä¸??¶æ??½å??ä¼?ä¸????©ä?è¡?ï¼??½å??ç»?æµ??¸æ?ç¾??½æ?´å?·ä??¿ï?ä¹????©ä?人æ?å¸????¼ï?å¯??¡å½¢???ºæ???¢æ???????????ä¾?å¤????µæ??006å¹´ç??½æ????ä¸?次å?????°ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å???????¶æ?ï¼?å½??¶å???½å??è´§å??¿ç??¶ç´§ï¼?两æ???é«?å?款å??å¤?????ï¼?å½±å??ï¼?2006å¹?-8??A?¡æ????è°??´ã??
????ç¬??ï¼?ç¾????¨é?????å¸??ºè??è¨?ä¸?ä¸?å®???¥½æ¶??????为ç????¨é?????å¾?ä¼´é?????±æ?ºæ????è¡°é?????ºç?°ï??¨æ??è¿?ä¸?次ç????¨é?????°è¡°????以å??ç¾??½è¡°???????¡å?表ç?°ä¸ºä¸?è·?ï¼?ä½?å¦????½å???¿ç?????å¸þ@?¨ç¤¾??ä¸?è¡?ï¼???å¯??¡å½¢?????©æ??????ä»?ç¾????¨é?????°è¡°???ºé?´ï?对å?½å???????¾ç??å½±å??å°±æ????æµ·å???æ±?ä¸?足ç????ç´??ä¸??½å?ºå?£å????ä¸?è¡?ï¼?è¿?ç§??¶å??????强弱å¯??¡è?³å?³é??è¦???对æ??¥ç??ï¼???001å¹´ã??2007-2009年以??2019-2020å¹´ä?次ç????¨é?????°ç??½ç?æµ?è¡°é??ç»??????´ä¸ªè¿?ç¨?ä¸???½å??ä¼?ä¸????©å???è·???ä¸?è¡???ä¸??????????007-2008å¹´æ???´å?½å??社è??å¢???ä¹??¨å????ä¸?è¡?ï¼?A?¡å¤§å¹?ä¸?è·?ï¼???2019-2020å¹´æ???´ä¸?¿æ??社è??å¢??????¨ç¨³æ¥å????ï¼?A?¡æ?´ä?è·?å¹??¸å???????
????
????
????2??ç¾????¨å????°¾å£??¡é??¼è¡¨??/STRONG>
????ä»?A?¡ç??é£??¼æ?¥ç??ï¼??¨ç????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°å?å§???????è¿?段æ?¶é?´é??ï¼?A?¡å?表ç?°ä¸ºå¤§ç?????¿é??¼å??ä¼?ï¼??¶ä¸??»¥ä»£è¡¨å¤§ç?????¿é??¼ç??æ²?·±300???°è?·å?è¶?é¢??¶ç????æ¦?????è¶?é¢??¶ç??å¹?åºþ=?´é?ï¼?å°¤å?¶å?¨ç¡®è®¤å??æ¢å?????°é?次é?????段æ?¶é?´é??ï¼?大ç?????¿é??¼æ???¾å??ä¼???究å?¶å????ï¼?
????ç¬??ï¼??¨ç????¨å??æ¢æ????ä¸?次å?????°å?å§????????´ï?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç??????ç»??è¡?ï¼?è¿??·ç????????©ä?A?¡æ???¿é??¼è¡¨?°ï?è¯þ>??»è??????¥å????å¦???ç¾??????°å??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????è§?顶ï?å¯??¡æ???³ç??ä»?ä¹?ï¼???ï¼?ï¼???以æ???¿é??¼ç??ä¼??¿æ?´ä¸º???¾ã??
????ç¬??ï¼?大å???é£??¼æ?¹é?????018/12-2019/7???´ï?????ç¾????¨å???????ï¼???ä¸?èµ???????æµ????¡ï???为å??ºé??è¦?å¢???èµ???ï¼???å¤?èµ??¸å???好大å¸??¼è?¡ç¥¨ï¼???æ¤å??£ä¸ª?¶æ???大ç??é£??¼èµ·?°é??è¦????¨å?¨ä??¨ã??
????
????3??ç¾????¨å????°¾å£??¡è?ä¸?表ç??/STRONG>
????è¡?ä¸??¹é???ç¾????¨æ????ä¸?次å?????°å?å§???????è¿?段æ?¶é?´é??ï¼?A?¡æ¶¨å¹?å±?????è¡?ä¸??¨æ??è¿?两轮????°¾å£°ä?å°½ç?¸å??ï¼?ä½??´ä?主è???ä¸??¨å??¶æ???¿æ?§æ?è¾?强ã??ä¸?绩å???æ¯?è¾?é«???è¡?ä¸?ï¼??¶ä¸???¶é??????å·¥ç??ºæ?两æ?涨å??½é??????
?????·ä??¥ç??ï¼???006-2007å¹´è?è½?????°¾å£°ï?å½??¶æ????¡æ?´ç»´?????»é?¶æ?ï¼?å°¤å?¶é¡º?¨æ???¿å??ä¸?绩é?å¢?ï¼????²é??å±????¢é????建æ????家ç?µã???¶è??????¶é????ç?è¡?ä¸???å®??°å¤§??ä½??°ç????00ï¼?以ä???ä¸?绩å??¿ï??±æ?å¸þ=?¥è?äº??¿å??äº??¼ç??表ç?°ã??2018å¹´æ??2019å¹´è?è½?????°¾å£°ï????¶é???????µå??设å????°è?½æ?????å·¥ã??计ç??ºã???????§æ???社ä????¡ç??½å?äº???019å¹´å??ä¸?å£åº¦???©é?å¢?ä¸?å¢?å¹?å±?????è¡?ä¸???
????
????04
??????½®ç¾????¨å?????¥è?尾声ï¼?å¯??¡å½±??å¦?ä½?ï¼?
????1??ç¾???????è®????è®??????????????
????3??以æ?¥ï?å¸??ºå?ç¾????¨ç?????????ç»???äº?è¿?山车å¼???????ï¼?????3??ç¾????¨è????è®????ï¼??????´å??½å?°ã??
????3??ç¾????¨è????è®??????声æ??ä¸???¸å???容å??????主è??????
????ï¼?1ï¼?声æ??表述ï¼?å§???ä¼?ä»??¶é?åºþ@?³æ³¨????é£??©ï?ä½?????稳å?对å???????¶çº¦å¢?强ã??3???©ç???³è?声æ??ä¸?????¨è¡¨ç¤ºâ??ç¾??½é?¶è?ä½?ç³»å?¥å?¨ä?å¯???å¼¹æ?§ã????è¿???äº?????å±????½å??´å?åº???ä¼?ä¸???ä¿¡è´·?¡ä»¶?¶ç´§ï¼?并å?ç»?æµ?æ´»å?¨ã??å°±ä?????????????????è¿?äº?å½±å????ç¨?åºþ=???ç¡??????å§???ä¼?ä»??¶é?åºþ@?³æ³¨????é£??©â????
????ï¼?2ï¼?ç»?æµ?é¢???ï¼?继ç»ä¸?è°?????é¢???ï¼?å°?å¹?ä¸?è°?失ä???é¢?????GDPé¢??????¸æ??»å¹´12????é¢?æµ?ï¼?ç¾????¨ä?å¹???è°?ä½?äº?2023å¹´ç??ç»?æµ?å¢???é¢???ï¼?0.5ï¼???0.4ï¼?ï¼?ï¼????¶å?å¹?ä¸?è°?äº?2023å¹´ç??失ä???é¢???ï¼?4.6ï¼???4.5ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?????é¢???继ç»ä¸?è°?ï¼?PCEï¼?3.1ï¼???3.3ï¼?ï¼??¸å?PCE: 3.5ï¼???3.6ï¼?ï¼???
????
????ï¼?3ï¼??????³ç???é¢???ï¼?3??ç¾????¨å?³å?继ç»????5bpï¼????¥å????¡¨è¿°æ????å¼±å????3?????¹é?µå?¾æ?¾ç¤ºï¼? 2023å¹´è???¨å????©ç??é¢?æµ?ä¸??¼ä¸º5.125ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?ä¸?ä¸???é¢?æµ??ºæ???¸å??ï¼?è¿???ç¤??????½æ??????ä¸?次å???????¹é?µå?¾æ?¾ç¤ºï¼?2024å¹´å?©ç??é¢?æµ?ä¸??¼é????.25ï¼?ï¼?2025å¹´é????.125ï¼????¨ç????¨ä?è®???¹å£°??ä¸??ç¾????¨å?¨å?©ç??ç«??ºä?继ç»å¼ºè???大就ä¸????¿æ???????????????¶ï????¤ä??????¥æ??ç»???é«??©ç??å°?????å½?????表述ï¼??¹ä¸º????è¦?é¢?å¤????¿ç??³å?ï¼?some additional policy firmingï¼?ï¼?使é?????????¶é?´æ?¢å???ï¼??????¨ç??½é?¶è?ä¸?????é£??©çº¦??ä¸?ï¼?????å¸??ºæ????认为ï¼??????¨æ??å·²æ?¥è?尾声ï¼?5??ä¸???????é¢???æ¦?????????
????
????å¾????»ç??ï¼?å½±å??ç¾????¨å????·¯å¾?????ç´?主è?????°±ä¸?ï¼?失ä???ï¼??????????¶è?ä¸?é£??©ç?ä¸?ä¸??¹é? ¬??
????å°±ä??¹é???2??ç¾??½å¤±ä¸???å·²ç?????ï¼??°ä?ä¸?æ¬???è®????è®????ï¼?è¿???3????4??两个?????°æ???为å???????¹æ????????????ï¼????²ä?å½?ç¾??½å¤±ä¸???è¿?ç»???????ç¾????¨å?å¾?ç»??????????以å???3-4????失ä???继ç»????ï¼???å¾????½æ??为ç????¨ç?????????ä¸?ä¸???è¦?ä¿¡å?·ã??
?????????¹é???????导è?´ç??½é????é«?å±?ä¸?ä¸???ä¸?ä¸???è¦???ç´??¨ä??¿ç???ä»????²æ?¥ç??ï¼?ç¾??½ç?????????/CS?¿ä»·???°é???äº?CPIä¸??????æ¯?çº?8ä¸???ï¼?????¨ç?ï¼?3??å¾???ç§???CPI????æ¯?å¢?????????æ¸?è§þB¡¶ï¼????³ç??ç§???å¯?PI?????¨ä??¨å???æ¸???å¼±ï?ä½?ä»????½é?ä½?å¾?å¾?ä¸?段æ?¶é?´ï??·æ??è¾?强ç??ç²??§ã???þ@?ï¼??»å¹´3??å¼?å§?ï¼?ç¾???PI??æ¯?å¢???è·?????ï¼?以ä?ï¼?é«??ºæ?°æ??åº?ä¹????©ä?????读æ?°ç??ä¸?è¡???
????
?????¶è?ä¸?é£??©æ?¹é???3??以æ?¥ä?ç¡?è°·é?¶è??????å§?ï¼?æµ·å??¥è??ºç?°å?家é?¶è??????以å????å£?¿¡è´·è??¶è´ç??¶è?ä¸?é£??©ä?件ã??ä¸?è¿?ï¼?åº?幸ç?????ç¾????¨ã??ç¾??½è´¢?¿é?¨ã????å£?¤®è¡?ç???管æ?ºæ?????¶å?ºæ????ä¾?æµ??¨æ?§æ????ï¼?稳å?å¸??ºæ??ç»??使å?è¿??ºé?æ³¢æ???ºç?°æ?´å¤§???´ç???©æ?£ç???³æ???为æ??¨æ?§å?±æ?ºã??ä½?????é£??©å·²ç»???为ç????¨å????·¯å¾?ä¸??å¾?ä¸???????ä¸?ä¸???è¦???ç´?ï¼?并ä?ä»?ç¾????¨è????è®??????声æ??ä¸????»¥???°ï?ç¾????¨å·²ç»?å¼?å§???è§?è¿?äº?é£??©ä?件å?ä¿¡è´·?¡ä»¶ä»¥å??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿å???½é??????è´??¢å½±????
????综ä???è¿°ï?ç¾?????????æ¢å??????æ¦?????ç¡??¨å?大ï?å¸??ºå????½é??æ¸?è¿??¥å??????è¿°ç??ç¬???¶æ?ï¼??³å??????¹ä?é¢????°ç¡®è®¤ç??è¿?ç¨???ä¸?è¿?ä»?è¦????³ä????¥ä¸¤ä¸??????????°æ????å°±ä??°æ???以å??æµ·å??¶è?ä¸?é£??©ä?件ç??æ¼?ç»????µï?è¿?äº?å°?å¼?导å??ºé???????????
????2??ç¾????¨å????¸´è¿?尾声ï¼?å°?å¦?ä½?å½±å??A?¡ï?
?????¹æ??????????þ
????å¦???5??ç¾????¨ä???????£æ???¥ä¸¤ä¸???å°±æ??????ä¸?次å?????°ç¡®è®¤ç????????ç¨?ï¼?为ç????¨å????°¾å£°ç?äº??¶æ????¨å??ç±»å???ä¿¡æ???é¢?????å¼?导ä?ï¼?å¸??ºå?æ¼?ç»?????????¹ä?é¢????°ç¡®è®¤â??ï¼?????ç±»è?产ä?涨æ????½æ?è¾?é«???å°??¡è??è¨?ï¼??¤ä?2006å¹?-8?????½å??è´§å??¿ç??¶ç´§ï¼?两æ???é«?å?款å??å¤?????ï¼?å½±å??????è°??´å?ï¼??¶ä???次å????°¾å£°ç?äº??¶æ?A?¡å??ä¸?æ¶???´ä?ä¸?涨æ???è¾?é«????¨æ????µä?ï¼?ç¾????¨å?????¨æ??è¿???ç»??¹ï????¾å?ç´§ç??è´§å??¿ç???离ç?åºþ=?¶æ??ï¼?å¤??´æ??¨æ?§å????ç¼?解ï?ç¾??????°å??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????????继ç»ä¸?è¡?ï¼????©ä?人æ?å¸?æ±???ä¼?稳转?????¼ï?å°??¸å?å¤?èµ???æµ?ï¼?å¯??¡å½¢??æ£é?¢æ??????
????å¦???ç¾??½å??项æ?°æ???è¶?é¢???ï¼?å¸??ºé??????½è½¬??5??ç¾????¨ç»§ç»?????5bpï¼??£ä????¥ä¸¤ä¸???å°±å???½æ??????两æ????????´ï?为ç????¨å????°¾å£°ç??ç¬???¶æ????¹æ????????????ï¼??¨ç????¨å????°¾å£°ç?ä¸??¶æ?ï¼?A?¡ç??表ç?°å?大ç?åºþ@???³ä??½å??ç»?æµ????¿ç??????
????
????ä»??½å???ºæ???¢æ?¥ç??ï¼?ä»?å¹´æ???½ç?æµ?å°???äº?æµ·å?å¤???ï¼?????人æ?å¸????¼ï?并带?¨ä?ä¸????©å???ä¸?è¡?ï¼?å¯??¡å½¢???ºæ???¢æ??????????ä¹???ä¸??两å?½ç?æµ??¨æ????ä½?ï¼????½ç?æµ??¨æ??èµ°å?¨ç??½ä??????¥è??以æ?¥ï???项ç?æµ??????¾ç¤º?½å??ç»?æµ???åº?å¤???ï¼?è¿??¥ä?è¡????????¸æ?ä¹?ä¸?ï¼?ç¾??½ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡??¶æ?并æ??µ°å®???è¿??¥ä?å£åº¦ä»¥å??ï¼?ä¸??½ç?æµ????¸å?ä¼??¿ä?è¿?ä¸?æ¥å?¸æ?¾ã??æ¤å?ï¼?2???°å?社è????ä¸??¿æ??社è??å¢???å®??°ç»§?»å¹´4??以æ?¥ç????åºþA½¬æ£ï?ç¡??A?¡é??æ¸?è¿??¥ç???©ä?è¡??¨æ????
????
????
????æ¦????¥è?ï¼??½å??ç»?æµ???åº?å¤???ï¼?å°?å¼?导ä?ä¸????©é??æ¸?è¿??¥ä?è¡??¨æ??ï¼?å¯??¡æ??ä¾??ºæ???¢æ????????ç¾????¨å????·²ç»?è¿??¥å°¾å£°ï???????º«å¯??¡å?²å?»æ??大ç???¶æ???å·²è??»ã??å¦??????¥é?¶æ???????°æ???导å??ºé???强å??5??ä¸????????ï¼?????ç±»è?产ä?涨æ???é«?ï¼?A?¡å?è¿??¥å?ºæ???¢å??ä¸???å¤??¨æ??¨æ?§æ?¹å???????»ã????å¦???ç¾??½å??????°æ????¨è?é¢???并å?å¯???继ç»??????é¢???ï¼???A?¡å?¨ç?æµ??ºæ???¢æ????ä¸?ä»???????å¾?ä¸?????表ç?°ã??é£??¼ä?ï¼??¨ç????¨ç??????????ä¸?ï¼????¿é??¼è¡¨?°æ?´å¥½??
?³é?????读ï? ç¾?????/a>
- ??å±??¨æ?°å?? 为æ?¸è??????ä¾??????????
- ?µå?ç«???????项ç??·¥ä½?ç»?ç¹å???讨ä?举è? ?????¨å?¨ç?µç?产ä?è§???????å±?
- ?°æ??订å??????交æ??大å?延é? ä¾???两æ?ºä?ä¼?ä¸????©è?½å?????¹å??
- ??è¯?ï¼???ä¸??¿æ???¢å?????è·?0.21%ï¼???åþ@?????¿å??大涨
- 人形?ºå?¨äºº????大ä??¨ä???? 产ä??¾å???¸å???³æ³¨
- ?¨å?¨å????é£??µå??å±? ä¸??¨é?¨ç?ç»?å¼?å±?????乡ä???é©??è¡??¨â??
-
