????

????1

????3??5?¥ï?ä¸???大å??ä¼?ä¸?????ä¼??¹æ?????模å??é¢?æµ?ç»?æµ?è¡°é????æ¦????¥è?99ï¼???è¡°é????主è???????????¨å?????并è?ä¸?023å¹´å??ä¸?ä¸??åºþ@???GDPå¢??¿ç?????½ä¸º?¶æ??è´??????????????ç¾??½å?¨è?50å¹´é?´é??ç»?????????ç»?æµ?è¡°é????ä¹??¨è?该模??é¢?æµ?对ä???

????

????ç¾????¨æ??ç»???????¶é??ä¸????²å?»æ???´æ?¥è?????¾ç????4??3?¥ï???SM????°æ???¾ç¤ºï¼?ç¾??????¶é??ä¸?PMIå½?å¾?46.3ï¼???ä¸?2020å¹???以æ?¥æ??ä½?ï¼???äº?2????47.7??å¸??ºé?????47.5??è¿?ä¹????????è¿?ç»??5ä¸?????0?£æ??º¿ä¸??¹ï?表æ??该è?ä¸?æ­£å?äº??¶ç¼©???¥å???¤æ?°å??????å¼?常å?¼ï?3???¶é??ä¸?PMI??ä¸?2009年以?¥æ?°ä???

?????¶å?ï¼?ä»?ä¸?ä¸?çº?0年代?³ä?ï¼?ä¸??±å????16æ¬?MI?°æ???å½???æ°´å¹³?¸å????´ä?ï¼?12次ç??½ç?æµ??·å?¥ä?è¡°é????ä¹?å°±æ??????§å???²è?å¾?ï¼?è¿?ä¸?????é¢?æµ???????ä¸?5ï¼???

????

?????????¿å?°äº§å¸??ºã??3??ï¼?NAHB?¿äº§å¸??ºæ???°ä¸º44ï¼????????????ï¼?ä½?è¿?å·²ç????ç»??8ä¸????·å??0以ä?????缩å?ºé?´ã??

?????´ä¸ª?¿å?°äº§å¤?äº???ä»·é?è·??¶æ?????????¹é???ä»?å¹???ï¼???å±?????00ä¸?å¥?ï¼?è¾??»å¹´å¤§å?ä¸?æ»?37ï¼?ï¼?è¿?ç»??è·?12ä¸???ï¼??????²ä»¥?¥æ???¿è?è·?çº????2??ç¨???ç¼???ï¼????ä¸???14.5ï¼?ï¼?ä½???æ¯?ä¾??§ä?æ»?22.6ï¼????¿ä»·?¹é???ç¾??????°æ?¿é????»·ä¸??¼ä¸º36.3ä¸?ç¾???ï¼?è¾??»å¹´????ä¸???0.2ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?012å¹???以æ?¥é?次å??æ¯?ä¸???ï¼?è¾??»å¹´6???????²é?ä½?ä¸???12.3ï¼???

????å½???ï¼?ç¾??½ç?æµ?表ç?°æ???§æ?§æ?¥æ?äº?强å?²ç??æ¶?è´¹æ???ºï?????主è?æº?äº????????´ç§¯????è¶?é¢??¨è????

????2020å¹´å??ä¸?ä¸??åºþ

????ä»?å¹???ï¼?ç¾??½é?¶å???????ï¼?汽车??20-22ï¼???é£???é¥???10-15ï¼????¾è´§ä¸?10-13ï¼???é¤?é¥??11-12ï¼????µå?????-11ï¼?ç­?ï¼????ä¸?è·?0.4ï¼?ï¼?è·?å¹?大ä?é¢???????æ¯?å¢???ä¸?.39ï¼?ï¼???ä¸?2020å¹?2??以æ?¥æ?°ä???

????

????以ä?ç§?ç§??°æ??¡¨??ï¼?ç¾??½ç?æµ?å¤?äº?ä¸?ä¸?¼±?¿ç?¶æ????è¿?è¿?没æ??????ç¡?è°·é?¶è?å¼??????¶è?ä¸??¨è?¡ç?ç»?æµ?å¸þ=?¥ç??å½±å????

?????¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºæ??ç»????µï?è¿?½¿??ä¸??¶è?è°??´å?¶è?产è??ºè¡¨ï¼??¶ç´§?¶ä¿¡è´·æ?¡ä»¶???????³æ?°æ???¾ç¤ºï¼???????22?¥ç??ä¸??¨å??ï¼???ä¸??¶è?å­?款å??å°?äº?1257亿ç???ï¼?è¿?ç»??ä¹?ä¸???ä¸?æ»????´ä?è´·æ?ä¸???204亿ç???ï¼?ä¸?021å¹???以æ?¥æ??大é??å¹????¶ä¸­ï¼?è¢??为ç?æµ?æ´»è?åºþ=????????ä¸???å·¥ä?è´·æ?ä¸???è¿?300亿ç???ï¼???å¹???为æ???¾ã??

?????±ä???¸´è´??ºç?å­?款æ??ç»??失ç??????以å?????½ç??æµ??¨æ?§é??©ï?ä¸???¶è??´æ???¨å???»æ?¶ç´§è´·æ?è§?模ã??è¦??¥é??ï¼?ç¾??½å??¶è?对å??ä¸??°äº§è´·æ???ä½?å®??°äº§è´·æ?????ä¸???å·¥ä?è´·æ???æ¶?费贷款ç??è´¡ç??????¾¾??0ï¼?ï¼?38ï¼???34ï¼???24ï¼????¨æ?·ç?±ä???å¿?ä¸???¶è???????©ä»¥?????´é??©ç????è´§å??ºé????»¥???©ï???驱使??å­?款å?æµ???è¿????½å??´å??¶è?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥æ?¶ç´§è´·æ??¡ä»¶ï¼?ä¸??©ä?å®?è§?ç»?æµ??????

????ä¸???¶è?å¦?æ­¤ï?大é?¶è??½ç?????¶èº«??ï¼?

????æ­¤æ??¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºï????½ä?????ç¾??½ç?æµ?è¡°é????è¿?ç¨???究ç?对ç?æµ??²å?»æ??å¤?大æ??å¤?æ·±ï?è¿???è¦??¶é?´æ?¥é?è¯???????ï¼?主æ?è§??¹æ???¸å?äº?????5BP-50BP??

????2

????è¿???0å¤?å¹´ï?ç¾?????2次å?????¨æ??ä¸??????3次å??°ä?è½???????ä½???两个?¡ä»¶ï¼?ç¬??ï¼??¨é?????ºç?°è??头ä???ï¼????»æ?§è?è¡???????ä½?ï¼???????è¶?ç¼?以å??ç»?æµ??¾ç?ä¹???è¿?è¡???????????ç¬??ï¼?????????GDPå¢???足å?é«?ï¼???ä¾?äº?è½???????å®??¨å????

??????½®?????¨æ????å¿????¥ï??¶å???????¶ç?¹ä?严é??æ»????§ä???????æ­¤å?ï¼??»å¹´ç»?æµ?å¢???ä¸?.1ï¼?ï¼?ä¹?ä¸?ç®?å¾?é«??????§å???²ç?éª?ï¼???½®ç»?æµ???ä¸?å­??¨è½¯???????°å??ºç????°å??????þ@?ºå???©ç??å·²ç??»å?°ä?4.75-5ï¼???æ°´å¹³ä¸?ï¼???????æ¯?ä»??¶é?è¾?ï¼?ï¼??¶å?对ç?æµ??????¶ä??¨ä?è¶????¸æ?¾ã??

????å°±å?¨è?ä¸??³é??¡£?£ä?ï¼?OPEC+?ºæ?¥è???ºç??½ã??

????4??2?¥æ???´ï?OPEC+çª??¶å?å¸?å®??½è???¿ç?³æ²¹??产è??????¶ä¸­ï¼?æ²???0ä¸?桶ï?ä¿?ç½???0ä¸?桶ï?ä¼?????21.1ä¸?桶ï??¿è????14.4ä¸?桶ç?????ä¸??½å???èµ·æ?¥ç´¯è®¡é?è¾?65ä¸?桶ï????°å?¨ç??æ¯??¥ç?³æ²¹äº§é????5.6ï¼???çª??¶å¤§å¹???产ï??ºæ??³æ²¹ä»·æ?¼å¤§å¹?ä¸?涨ã???°å???ç¾?æ²¹æ??货价?¼é?¼è?81ç¾???ï¼?å¸?ä¼þ>?¹é???5ç¾???以ä?äº???

????

????纵è?è¿??»å???²ï?OPEC+大å???产å?å¾?????å®?????æ±?èµ°å¼±ï¼?å¤?为衰????æ¿?临衰??ï¼?????油产?½è??©ç???¶å????ä½?ç»?常ç??ç»??????è¾¹å??产ï?油价边ä?è·?ï¼???为å??产ç????????æ³???è½??????æ±?ä¸?æ»??´å¿«??

?????????大å???产ï?é¢?让å??ºæ??å¤???ç¬??ï¼?ä¸????è¡???油产???¿ç?ä¼?è®????¥å?ï¼?çª????§ç?¹å?å¾????¾ã??ç¬??ï¼?å½????¨ç??ç»?æµ?è¿????·å?¥å?è´¨æ?§è¡°??ï¼?ä¸??¨æ?ç¾??¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºæ??ç¼?ä¹?ä¸?已驱使油价大å¹????????????è¿?è¡?????è¿??????PEC+???¨æ??è°???ï¼?è¿?è¡?äº?é¢??²æ?§å??产ã??è¿?ä¹?说æ??OPEC+认为?¨ç??ç»?æµ??¥ä??¥å???½ä???ç»?æµ?è¡°é??????大é??©ã??

????大å???产ï?ç»´æ??é«?油价ï¼?ç»´æ?¤ä?产油?½ç???©ç??ï¼?ä½?对ä?欧ç??½å??©ç?????¾ä??©ã??

????ç¾??½é????ä»??»å¹´6????9.1ï¼????½è?³ä?å¹?????6ï¼?ï¼???常é??è¦?????ç´?å°±æ???????????????½æ???¾ã????è¿????¢é??常å?³é????å°±æ????æ²¹ï?ä»·æ?¼ä??»å¹´120-130ç¾???大å????½è?³ä?å¹???份ç??80ç¾???以ä??????¸å?????ï¼??¨é?¤è?½æ???é£???ï¼?ä¸???并ä????¾ï?ä»?ä»??»å¹´9????6.6ï¼????½è?³ç??????5.5ï¼?ï¼?主è??»è??????¡å??????并没?????½ï????????å¾?强ç???§æ?§ã??

????

????9.1ï¼????½è??ï¼?ï¼?è¿???ä¸?ä¸???常é??è¦???????????è¿???å¹?PI???°ä???稳å??????å°?å¹?ä¸???ï¼?ä¸????»å¹´?????????é«???å¢??¿ï?导è?´å??æ¯?å¢????ºç?°æ???¾å???½ã??ä½??°ä?ä»?å¹???ï¼????CPI?ºç?°ç???å¢??¿ï??£ä???æ¯?å¢???å°±ä???½¬??ç»??æ»??????¿ï???为å?»å¹´6??份å?å§?CPI???°å?äº?ä¸?ä¸??涨æ???µï?没æ??é«??ºæ?°å??ç´?äº???

?????°å???OPEC+大å???产ï?ä¿?使油价å?äº?é«?ä½?ï¼??????½å??´å???????????ºç?°å????ï¼??¾ç?¶ä??©ä?ç¾????¨æ?§å?¶é??????å¦?æ­¤ä??¥ï?ç¾????¨ç??è´§å??¿ç?ä¼???ä¸?ä¸?°¾?¨é??©ï???????é«?åºþ?»¥??ç»´æ???¶é?´ç???¿åº¦???½ä?è¶?é¢?????è¿?对ä?å¤?äº??²æ????ç»?æµ??¾ç?¶æ????©ç??ï¼????½ä?ä¼?????è¿??¥è¡°??????å¥?ä¹?ä¸???

????å¾??¾ç?¶ï?OPCE+此举???¼ç????¨ç»§ç»??????ä¸?ä¼?让ç????¨ç???¿ç??©ç???¼å???¨é?ä½?ï¼?ä¹???大ä??????±æ?ºç?????????½æ?§ã??

????3

?????¨é???????é«??©ç?????????ï¼?ç¾??½å?¶é??ä¸????¿å?°äº§å·²ç????°æ???¾å?²å?»ï???对ä?æ¶?è´¹æ???¡ä???å½±å??ä¼???æ»????§å??ç´?§¯??åº????¨è??·ç?????µä?ï¼?ç¾??½é?¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºæ?¥ä?æ³¢å?²å?»ï?å¤???PEC+大å???产å???¥ä?æ³¢å?²å?»ï??¶å?大大å¢???äº?ç»?æµ?è¡°é???????½æ?§ã??è¿???????å¹´æ??大ç??ä¸?头ç?°ç????äº???

????ä¸??þ>??½ç?æµ??·å?¥è¡°??ï¼?ç¾??¡æ?????©ä?ä¼?缺席??è¿???0è½??¨æ??ï¼??????©é??常å?¨è¡°??èµ·ç??ä¸?????å¼?å§?ï¼???ç»?º¦2ä¸??åºþ

????

?????°å???ç¾??¡å??å¼¹è?为强?¿ï?ä¸?ä½??¶å?äº?ç¡?è°·é?¶è?äº?件ç????以æ?¥ç??????è·?å¹?ï¼?è¿?欲è?ä¸?æ­¥æ?????»å¹´8??份ç??ä½?ç½??主è?交æ???»è?ä»??¶æ??????¨å????¿«ç»???äº?ï¼?ç¾???æµ??¨æ?§å??ºç?°é??è¦????¹ã??

????å¦??????¶é?´æ???¿ä??¹ç??ï¼??°å?¨ç??ç¾??¡å??ºå???½æ???¹è?äº?ä¹?è§?ä¸?亢å?äº????????¶é?´ç???¨è?ï¼?ä¸?ä¸?æ­¥å??ºå?³æ³¨?????¹å?移æ??¨ç?æµ?è¡°é??以å??????é£??©ä??¢æ?¥ã???¨ç??å¸??ºå??æ­¤å?????A?¡æ??èµ???ä¹?åº?该å??好å???ä¸?ä»?ä½???å¤???ï¼??¨æ??å®?ï¼?