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????2. 澶??ㄦ?跨???缁?????锛?
????锛?1锛?2013骞达?澶??ㄦ?跨???缁?????绉诲?ㄤ???缃?????灞???2?????充?淇?杩?淇℃???璐规?╁ぇ???????ュ共??瑙?????8?????充?淇?杩?淇℃???璐规?╁ぇ???????ュ共??瑙?????9?????充?缁?缁?瀹???013骞寸Щ?ㄤ???缃???绗???浠ｇЩ?ㄩ??淇′骇涓???涓?椤圭?????ャ??绾风悍琛ㄦ???藉?瀵圭Щ?ㄤ???缃???灞???澶у????????????绉诲?ㄤ???缃????冲???
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2.3 ?镐技??锛?娴峰?瀹?瑙????
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????13骞村????褰???锛?娴峰?瀹?瑙??????杩??ヤ??镐技?????锛?缇????ㄨ揣甯??跨?杈归??杞??俱??12骞存??????ㄥ???E3 &锛?锛?锛?锛?锛?锛?锛? QE4锛?23Q2缇????ㄥ?????ㄦ??灏惧０锛??ㄧ??娴??ㄦ?у?杩????广??
????1. 12骞存???QE3 &锛?锛?锛?锛?锛?锛?锛? QE4???伴???炬??ㄦ?э?娴峰?甯??烘??ㄦ?ф??缁???俱??12骞???缇????ㄥ?甯?浜?绗??杞?????瀹芥?捐揣甯??跨?锛?QE3锛?锛???骞?2??缇????ㄥ?甯?浜?绗???杞?????瀹芥?捐揣甯??跨?锛?QE4锛?锛??ㄧ??娴??ㄦ?у??椋??╁??濂藉??杩??ユ?瑰????
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????2. 23骞翠?瀛ｅ害锛?缇????ㄥ????矾寰?????娓??帮??ㄧ??娴??ㄦ?ц??ユ???广??浠??诲勾3???充?锛?缇????ㄥ凡杩?琛?9娆″??????浣?????SVB????澹?俊璐蜂?浠剁?哥户????锛?缇??烘繁搴兀?╃????????????ㄥ凡缁??剧?般??缇????ㄥ????FOMC涓????????琛ㄨ堪?扁??涓烘?у?堕????????缁???????杞?负??涓?浜?棰?澶????跨?绱х缉???芥??????????锛?????3??FOMC浼?璁?????ㄥ??????.75锛?-5锛?涔??达??ｇ?瑰?炬?剧ず2023骞存?跨??╃??棰???涓???颁负5锛?-5.25锛?锛??????????????宸茶?冲熬澹般????浜??堕??.31缇??????稿?PCE?╀环???板?虹??锛?缇??介?????版????????浣?棰?????杞ㄩ??锛?涓?涓?娆＄??介?????版????ラ?浜?棰???杩??ョ?ヤ?浜?棰?????2骞?1??10?ワ?缇?????ADP灏变?浜烘?颁?浜?棰?????3??Markit???′?PMI浣?浜?棰???绛??版???杩?涓?姝ユ????浜?甯??哄?浜?缇????ㄥ?冲???姝㈠???????冲勾????????棰???????浠???2.27??缇?????熬澹帮??虫敞澶х被璧?浜ф???癸??????猴??村??ヤ?锛?缇??哄?╃????椤堕?ㄦ???归???缇????ㄦ????涓?娆″????涓???宸兀?炽???ㄧ????ㄥ????矾寰?????娓??扮???????锛?褰????ㄧ??娴??ㄦ?т?灏?杩??ユ???广??
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2.4 ?镐技??锛??藉??瀹?瑙????
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????13骞粹??绉诲?ㄤ???缃?+??琛????藉??瀹?瑙?????????涓?褰??????锋???稿????镐技?э???缁?娴?澶??ㄥ???????涓?锛?浣?澶???寮规?у??寮卞??颁骇寮规?т?瓒筹??＄ぞ????缁??瑰??锛??㈠???瀵瑰?哄?ｆ???ㄤ?瓒筹??哄?ｅ??????解????
????1. 13骞村?瑙?缁?娴???????翠????板???锛?浣?澶?????搴�??绠?寮哄?诧??哄缓寮轰??颁骇锛?澶???瀵瑰?哄?ｆ???ㄤ??捐????
????锛?1锛?2012骞村??????缁?娴?澧?????蹇???涓?琛?锛??垮?????浜????颁?杞?????缁?娴??烘??跨?锛??ㄥ?ㄥ?哄缓??璧?澧???蹇??????????颁骇??????骞??剁????颁骇?板?宸ラ??姝ュ????锛??颁骇琛?涓????????????锛?浣?澶???寮规?ц?寮憋??哄缓??璧?澧?????2骞磋捣涓???????锛??戒?13骞???瑙﨎《锛?浣?姝ゅ??淇????ㄨ?楂?澧?????
????锛?2锛?绀捐??寰???浜??哄缓??瀹芥?惧??版???剧???瑰??锛?2012骞???寮?濮?锛?绀捐??浼?绋筹?13 骞翠???骞寸ぞ??澧???澶у?????锛??跨???瀹芥?鹃??姝ヤ?瀵煎?颁俊?ㄧ???浣?缁???6?????辫??????锛? 13骞翠???骞磋捣锛?绀捐??澧??????????姐??
????锛?3锛?澶???瀵瑰?哄?ｆ???ㄨ?寮便??13骞达???E???╂?ㄤ?缇??界?娴?????????锛??跺???版????璐㈡?胯丹瀛?绛?澶?椤规?版??〃??缁?娴?????濂借浆锛?浣?QE???虹??棰???涓??哄?′???璋??や娇缇??藉???绋?搴�=???????ㄥ痉娉?绛??界??甯兀?ㄤ?锛?娆х??缁?娴?琛伴??涔???????缂?锛?浣??哄?″?辨?洪?撮?炬???ㄩ?ㄦ??ｏ?浠?瀵规???缁?娴?澶?????杈?澶ч?荤????翠???瑷?锛?娴峰?缁?娴?浣?寮卞???锛?13骞村?哄?ｅ??????姐??
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????2. 23骞村?瑙?缁?娴?灞???锛?缁?娴??翠?澶???锛?浣??颁骇澶?????涓?寮规?т?寮轰?瀛??ㄦ?????锛???????姝ゆ?褰奸?库??涓???疆涓??界?娴?澶???缂轰?澶??ㄥ?辨???缁?娴?澶?????寮规?у???板???躲??绀捐??寮?濮?涓?琛?锛??藉??瀹?瑙?缁?娴????涓?13骞寸?镐技??
????锛?1锛?涓??归???23骞村?颁骇娓?杩?澶???锛?浣??颁骇?句慨澶??????跨???搴�??浜?12骞翠?15骞翠??达??颁骇??璧?淇???ㄨ?借?寮便??褰????颁骇????????浠封???版?????????瑰??锛?1-2???????块?????㈢Н??姣?涓???3.6锛?锛???骞????炬?剁?锛?2??浠藉?ㄥ??0涓???甯??板缓????浣?瀹?浠锋?兼???扮???娑ㄥ?涓?.3锛?锛?涓?1骞???浠ユ?ラ?搴嗀浆姝ｃ???????版??疆?颁骇?锯??绋冲??库??杩????ф???惧己浜?12骞达?浣??ㄦ??疆???夸?涓?????涓?锛??颁骇??璧?淇???ㄨ?借?寮憋?棰?璁′慨澶?寮规?у???峰?杈?灏?锛?淇????搴�=??灏?浠?浜?12骞翠?15骞翠??淬???颁骇????慨澶??版??璧????ㄤ????8-10涓?????婊?????锛??充究23骞村???颁骇????????浠封???版???瑰??锛??颁骇??璧??瑰??涔?瑕?绛???瀛ｅ害浠ュ??锛?瀵?3骞寸?娴??????ㄦ??????????
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????锛?3锛????蹭??ョ??锛?绫讳技褰??????????块???????涓?琛???搴??ㄥ?哄??+浼?涓?淇¤捶瑙?妯′?灞?姘?淇¤捶瑙?妯℃?捐????????骞跺??虹?板??锛?骞夸?娴??ㄦ?у?寰?寰??版?捐?????瑰???????蹭?绫讳技缁??????村?辨??4涓??08骞?2????12骞?????15骞?????2020骞??????朵腑锛?08骞?2????12骞????????哄缓?跨??虹?版?捐?????瑰??锛??哄缓澧?????蹇???????甯�=?ュ箍涔?娴??ㄦ?х???瑰??锛???15骞?????2020骞????????????垮?颁骇绛??ㄩ?ㄧ??淇＄?ㄧ????虹?颁??捐?????瑰?????村?ょ?ヤ?锛???浠??璁″??023骞?????娆″?虹?扳???????块???????涓?琛???搴??ㄥ?哄??+浼?涓?淇¤捶瑙?妯′?灞?姘?淇¤捶瑙?妯℃?捐?????????????靛??锛?骞夸?娴??ㄦ?ф?????虹?版??缁????瑰????
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????2.5 ?镐技??锛??″?寰??娴??ㄦ?х被浼?/STRONG>
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????1. 13骞达?澧???璧???????锛?甯??衡??瀛?????寮??????ㄢ??绉诲?ㄤ???缃?+??琛???涓诲???2013骞达?璇??稿??轰氦??缁?绠?璧????烘???????500-6500浜垮?????洪?村??娉㈠???娌℃??澶у?澧???锛????????＄エ+娣峰?????洪????浠介???.0涓?浜夸???????????.8涓?浜垮乏?虫按骞筹?琛ㄦ??甯??虹淮??瀛???璧?????瀛???璧????煎?涓?锛?13骞存??璧???缁???浜????剧?????琛?涓恒??
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????2. 23骞达?澧????洪??灏?????纭???版??绔??洪??浠介?灏????捐?????????版??绔??洪??浠介???缁??琛?寰?寰???瑕????跺?峰?涓ゅぇ瑕?绱?锛????捐????缁???璧??辨??搴?锛??″?姘??朵?????缃??浜ф?剁????瓒??挎?т?琛???褰????版??绔??洪??浠介?澶у?涓?琛?????瑕??′欢???捐????缁???璧??辨??搴???灏?????ㄦ弧瓒筹??洪??浠介???澶у?????灏????舵?ャ??
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????涓???AI+??灞???涔?1锛?琛???涓?娑ㄧ???堕?村??绌洪?寸??绌?/STRONG>
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????涓??挎???ョ??锛?AI+琛???绌洪?磋?澶э??堕?磋法搴嗀??匡?涓??????╁?拌?????瑕?浣?骞堕??琛?????缁??х???冲??ф?′欢锛?13骞??♀??绉诲?ㄤ???缃?+??琛?????涔?璐?┛?ㄥ勾锛??绘?堕?胯揪??22澶╋??绘定骞??????杩?浜?250锛????蜂??ョ??锛?浠ヤ???缃????颁负浠ｈ〃锛?13骞寸????绉诲?ㄤ???缃?+???诲?辩???杩?3娆¤?涓哄?稿??????璋?锛???璋??堕?垮????负40??17??19澶╋???璋?骞?搴兀????负11.5锛???9.5锛???13.7锛?锛??翠???璋??堕?垮??骞?搴兀苟涓?澶э???姣?涓?娆″??璋?????拱?ョ???轰???
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????????3骞粹??绉诲?ㄤ???缃?+??琛???锛???浠??涓烘??疆??AI+??琛???涔?灏???涓??舵?璧帮?涓?娓哥?????涓?父杞?欢???♀??涓?娓稿??ㄣ??褰???琛???浠??ㄧ?涓??舵?锛???浠????归??ㄢ??涓?娓哥?????锛????舵??璧?????瑕??虫敞??绗???舵???涓?父杞?欢???♀????绗???舵???涓?娓稿??ㄢ????????俊?凤?濡?琛?涓?搴??ㄧ????????ф?????灞????跨?瀵瑰??ㄧ???????杩?涓?姝ユ?╂?ｄ害????????AI+??涓荤嚎璋??村??甯??哄??句?涓?涓??瑰??绛????㈠????????
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????1. 绗???舵?锛?2012骞?2??涓???2013骞???涓????锛?浠ヤ?娓哥‖浠朵负涓汇??绗???舵???锛???MT浜?绾ц?涓??????剧?稿???浼???涓昏?????璁??澶?浠ュ??骞垮???ラ????2012骞?2????浠ユ?ワ??鸿?界?绔?????璁??虹?璁炬?藉缓璁句????ㄨ?锛???璁??澶?琛?涓?寤剁画楂????琛???锛???013骞?????瀹??扮害50锛?绱??娑ㄥ????荤???ヨ?绗???舵?琛???椹卞?ㄤ互TMT浜т??句?娓哥‖浠堕┍?ㄤ负涓汇??
????2. 绗???舵?锛?2013骞???涓???2013骞???涓????锛?琛???浠ヤ腑娓歌蒋浠躲?????′负涓伙?骞跺?濮????ㄥ??????????涓?娓歌?涓??╂?ｃ??5??涓???互?ワ?????涓?娓稿??浼?浜т????惧??璋?锛???缁??稿?璧板急锛?甯??洪??姝ョ‘绔?浜?瀵硅蒋浠跺?????IT???＄??琛???涓荤嚎锛?浣??板??轰氦??涓荤嚎娌库??绉诲?ㄤ???缃?+??浜т??炬?＄????涓??╂?ｃ??????充??舵????涓よ?涓?褰?寰?杩?40锛?绱??娑ㄥ???涓?姝ゅ???讹??????ц?寮虹??涓?娓歌?涓?涔????板?虹?稿?璧板己???裤??娓告??琛?涓?浜??舵??????捐??璧伴?锛?浜??舵??翠?褰?寰?杩?30锛?绱???剁????
????3. 绗???舵?锛?2013骞???涓???2013骞?0??涓????锛?涓?娓稿??ㄤ负涓汇??杩?????锛?TMT琛?涓?涓?娓镐骇涓?甯??鸿〃?板揩????????娓告????骞垮???ラ?????佃?骞挎???稿?浜?涓??娓歌?涓?甯??烘?捐????浼?锛?????20?ヨ??0??15?ワ?娓告?????佃?骞挎???涓?瀹??扮害30锛?绱??娑ㄨ?骞?锛?骞垮???ラ??瀹???0锛?浠ヤ?娑ㄥ???
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