????ç¾??????¶å???è´¹ç???è¿?ç»??äº?ä¸???为è?ï¼?å½?å¾?-1.0ï¼?ï¼?大å?ä½?äº?å½???ä¸??´é?????-0.5ï¼?ï¼???æ¯?å¢???ä¸???3.0pct??.9ï¼?ï¼????¤æ±½è½þ@??汽油???¸å??¶å?????ä¸?0.3ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?å½???ä¸??´é?????-0.6ï¼?ï¼???æ¯?ä¸?.0ï¼?ï¼?ä½?äº????¼ç??8.2ï¼???ä»???项æ?¥ç??ï¼?汽油??汽车?????¨å??æ¶?è´¹å?????¾ä?æ»?ï¼??¨å?????¡ç?¸å?³æ?è´¹å???ä¹??ºç?°æ?¾ç?ï¼??¾è¡¨1??2ï¼????½ç?¶é?¶å?????é¢???ï¼?ä½????¸å??¶å??????¥½äº?é¢???ï¼?ç¾??????°å?å¹?ä¸?æ¶?.2ï¼???01.2??ç¾???å¹´æ????10å¹´æ???????è¡?12bp??5bp??.08ï¼???3.49ï¼?ï¼?å¸??ºé???3??FOMC????5bp??æ¦???ä»?69ï¼?ä¸?????5ï¼?ï¼??¾è¡¨3ï¼???

????主è???项ç???å¢?????è½??ï¼?汽油?????¨å??æ¶?è´¹æ??ç´??åºþA?大ã??汽油价æ?¼å???½å??´æ±½æ²¹é???????å¢???ä¸???5.5pct??5.5ï¼?ï¼???ç´??¶å?????0.4ä¸??¾å???¹ï?ä¸????¶å????大ç????ç´?¡¹??æ­¤å?ï¼????¨å??æ¶?è´¹æ??ç»??è¿·ï??ºå?¨è½¦ï¼?-1.6ï¼?ï¼????µå?ï¼?-2.1ï¼?ï¼???建æ??ï¼?-2.1ï¼?ï¼??????è¾?2??è¾¹é??ä¸?æ»???é£???é¥??????¥ç?¨å??ç­??¨å?????¥å¸¸æ¶?è´¹ç??????????0.9pct??3.9pct??0.1ï¼???-3.0ï¼?ï¼?é¥????娱ä?????æ¶?è´¹ç???è½??ï¼?????ä½?éª?å¼?æ¶?è´¹æ??ä»???ä¸?å®??§æ?§ã??

????3???¶å????????¾æ?¾ç?ï¼??¾ç¤ºç¾??½æ?è´¹å?ºç?°è¾¹??走弱迹象??3???¶å??????µ°å¼±é?¨å?????½æ????为ç?è°·é?¶è?é£?æ³¢ç???²å?»ã??BEAé«?é¢????·å?¡æ?°æ????»¥???°ï?ç¡?è°·é?¶è??´é?·å??æ¶?è´¹ä?åºþ@????????ä¸??¨æ???¾èµ°å¼±ï?ä½?4??ç¬???¨å???ºç?°è¾¹????å¼¹ï????????½æ????ä¸???7?¥æ???©è????æ¶?è´¹ï????þA?½æ??ç»???¨ä?ç¡???§ï??¾è¡¨4ï¼???ä»?å°±ä???å·¥è???ä¿¡å??¥ç??ï¼?ç¾??½æ?è´¹å??????????????????½æ?§ï??·ä??¶ç?¹ä???è¦?è§?å¯?ï¼?3???°å?????å°±ä??´ä??¾ç?ï¼?å°¤å?¶æ???¸çº³?´å?å°±ä??????¡ä?å°±ä?ï¼?å°??¶å·¥èµ???å­£ç?????å¹´å???ä¹?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥æ?¾ç?ï¼?ç¾??½å?æ­??¹æ?è´¹è??ä¿¡å????°ä?ç»???äº?è¿?ç»???ä¸?????ä¸?è¡?ï¼??¾ç¤ºæ¶?费信å¿?å¼?å§????½ã??æ­¤å?ï¼?è¶?é¢??¨è????è´¢å???åº?ä¹???示æ?è´¹æ???¥é??¸´????ï¼????????´å?æ°???è¶?é¢??¨è???¨é??æ¸?æ¶???ï¼??¾è¡¨5ï¼?ï¼???2022å¹´è?¡å????°äº§ä»·æ?¼ä?è·?导è?´å?æ°?è´¢å???æ¯?å¢???è½??ï¼?ä¹????½ä????¶æ?è´¹ã??

????å¾?????ï¼?è¿????????å°±ä??????????¸å??¶å???¾ç¤º?ºå????迹象ï¼?ä½??»ä?æ°´å¹³ä»??¶å??é«?ï¼?ç¾???????????5bp??æ¦???è¾?é«???ç¾?????????ä¼?è®?ºªè¦??¾ç¤ºï¼?å°½ç?ç¾????¨å???¨å·¥ä½?人å??é¢?计ä???å¹´ç??½ä?è¿??¥è½»åºþA¡°??ï¼?mild recessionï¼?ï¼?ä½?ç¾????¨å???ä»??¶æ????3???????è¿??¾ç¤ºç»?æµ??¾ç????¶ä?ä¼?让è???¨å?¨é?¢è½¬??宽æ?¾ã??å½?????å®????©ç??è¶?è¿?å®?ä½?ç»?æµ????????¨é?¨æ???½æ?¿å????æ°´å¹³ï¼??¶è???????ä½?ç³»ç????å¼±æ?§æ??ç»???¨ã??ä¸????¤é?????¨è?¡å???§æ????å®?ä½?ç»?æµ?è¡°é??è¿?½¿???¨è½¬???´å?¨é?¢å??¾ç??è´§å??¿ç?ï¼???ä»??为ä???å¹´ç????¨ä????????????½æ?§ï???è§???3 ?? FOMCï¼???鸽派??ä½???ä»?ä¸?å¤?鸽ã??ï¼?2023/3/23ï¼???

????é£??©æ??示ï?ç¾??½ä¸­å°??¶è????°æ?¤å??é£?æ³??欧ç??·å?¥è¡°??æ¦???å¢?????

????

????

????

????

????

?????¸å?³ç????/P>

???????¥ï???ç¾??½æ?è´¹å??????þ??????????ï¼???2023å¹???15??/P>