????ç¼?????ï¼????¨æ??天ç?????¨é??æ¶???????é¢?æµ???ä¸?次ç?å¥??°å??°ä??°è???

?????¥å¸¸???ºé??è´¢ç??©ç?¥é????解ç????æ¸??¡å?³ç?????????èµ???ï¼??¥é????ä»???è¿?屡æ????°é????¡ã??

????ç¾????¨å???????5bpï¼???ä»·ä??¥æ?©ç??å¼???ä¸?åºþ@?????²æ?°é?2081ç¾???/???¸ï????????é»????¡è¡¨?°å¼º?¿ã??

?????±ä?é»???ä¼?ä¸???ä¸?绩ä?é»?????货表?°å????¸å?³ï?é»?????è´§ç??ä»·æ?¼å???¡å?é»????¿å????涨è?ä¹???æ­£ç?¸å?³ã??????究æ?¾ç¤ºï¼?é»?????è´§å??800ç¾???以ä????¶å??ï¼?æ¯?ä¸?æ¶?ï¼?ï¼?é»????¿å??å¹³å????涨å?大约??ï¼???

??????????����线索�

????ï¼?1ï¼??????¥è?尾声??FOMC 声æ??ä¿???äº?????ä»??¶é?ä¼???å°±ä?å¢??¿å¼º?²ç??è¨?论ï?并æ????å¤??迹象表æ?????¨æ??¨è????å¿????????ä½????¤ä???é¢?计ä?äº?é¢?å¤????¿ç??¶ç´§???½æ?????????????????é²?å¨?å°?讲è??¸å?é¹°æ´¾ï¼?表示??????è¿?é«?äº?????ï¼?ä½?å·²æ????ç¼???ï¼?????????继续é«?ä¼?ï¼?è¦???ä½?????è¿???å¾??¿ç??è·??èµ°ï?å¦?????????ç»??ä¼?ï¼???ä»??ä¼?????????edWatch?°æ???å¸??ºé???6??????5bpæ¦???ä¸?8ï¼?ï¼?ä¸????????ä¸?2ï¼?ï¼?9??????5bp??50bpæ¦???????¸º48ï¼???21ï¼???

????ï¼?2ï¼??¨ç??å¤????ç»?´­????3??份å?¨ç??é»????¨å?å¢???0.2???2023Q1?¨ç??å¤??ç´??è´???114?¨ã?????½å¤®è¡?3??å¢???18???为è?ç»?ä¸???ä¹°å?¥ï?2023Q1ç´??å¢???58?¨ã??

????ï¼?3ï¼?è¡?ä¸?并购活å?¨é???????¨ç????大ç??é»?????产å??Newmont Gold?ºä»·170亿ç????¶è´­Newcrestï¼?B2 Goldäºþ@?Sabina Gold &ï¼? Silver????并购è¡??¨ã????å¦?Newmontå¯?ewcrest???¶è´­??æ¡?å¾??°è?½å?ï¼??¶å???为澳洲ä?ä¸??²ä???大è?模ç???¶è´­????????并购?¨æ??å§?äº?2018å¹´ï?è¿??»ä?å¹´ï?大é?¨å??并购活å?¨å??????019å¹´è??021å¹´ä??´ï??»å¹´??并购活å?¨æ??????å°?ï¼?èµ??????????ï¼?????????å¾????½æ??????é£???以å??诸å?ä¸?ç¡???§ã????ä»?å¹´å???¥é??ä»·ç??´æ?????100ç¾???ï¼??¨æ?¹ä?????èµ???å°?ä¿?使è?äº?主è???产å?????£ä?ä¼?解å?³å?¶å??¿é???ï¼?å±??¶å????´å?主è?é»?????产å??寻æ??·ç?¸å?è§?模ç??ä¸??¡æ?´å??????è¿??¶è´­??ä½????????å®??°ä??¡å???????å¸þ=?¥ç??æ½??¨å??????åº?ï¼?ä¹??????½æ?¨å?¨è?£ä?ä¼????©è??¨ã??

????

??????西è??¸å??å¸????¥æ???ºï?ä¸???????è¨?ï¼?ç¾??½é?¶è??±æ?ºæ??忧å??èµ·ï?å½?ä¸?ç»?æµ??¾ç?迹象已æ???????°ï??´é????©ç??æ°´å¹³å°?令衰??é£??©è?ä¸?æ­¥å???ï¼?å½?ä¸???????å·²æ?¥å?°å°¾å£°ã????ä»??´é?¿æ??è§?åºþ>??ï¼????»ç??????????³æ³¨åº?/STRONG>????ï¼??¨æ?è¿?ç¨?ä¸????ä»·å?¼ä??????¸æ?¾ã??ä»?é»???ä»·æ?¼æ??¶ä???ï¼???ä¿¡ç?¨å????????§æ?§â??主å???价大?¹å??ï¼???ä»·ä??·æ???¿æ??ä»·æ?¼æ?????ºç?ï¼?ä¸???驱å?¨å??ç´???è¨?ï¼??????è¿?尾声对é???????å±??§å???¶å??å¼±ï?大è??¿ä?ä¸?ï¼???ä»·ä??·æ????ä¸?å¼¹æ??/STRONG>ï¼?建è??³æ³¨é»?????èµ??ºä?ï¼??¨è??????????ï¼?ä¸???é»??????????¿ä???å±±ä?é»??????¶æ³°é»?????赤峰é»?????

??????????è´§æ???²å????å¸?å¤??¹è?¹è¡¨ç¤ºï????¿çº¿ä¾??¶ç??涨é???ï¼??¨ç????¨å?????¥è?尾声ï¼?ä¸?è´§å??¿ç?å°?è¾¹é??è½??¾ä?ï¼?é»???ä¼°å?¼æ????继续ä¸?移ã?????¶ï?å¤??è´??????å°?继续?????????æ±???è¿???ï¼??¨ç??½ç?æµ?è¡°é??é£??©ã???°ç??¿æ²»é£??©ç??å½±å??ä¸?ï¼?ä¹?å°??¨é?å¸??ºå?é»??????¿é?©é??æ±?????ä½??¨ç????é«?ä½?ä¸?ï¼?并ä?建è???èµ???继续é«?ä½?追涨ï¼????å¾???ä»·å??è°???????æ­¥æ??èµ?????????ï¼?äº?季度é»???å­??¨ä?å®???è°?????ï¼???为æ???å¸??ºå?ç¾????¨å¹´?????????è¿?äº?ä¹?è§?ï¼???å­??¨ä?å®?ä¿?????½ã??

????è¿?两æ?è¯???å­??¢æ????å¾?好ç??解ã??ä¸??´ç??????¿æ????é»???ä»?ä¼?ä¸?æ¶??ä¸?ä¸??´ç?????????ä¸???????å¤?ï¼?????ä¸???????空ã??

?????£ä?å­??¨ä¸¤ä¸????ï¼?

????ä¸?ï¼?对ä??¿çº¿??èµ?????è¨?ï¼????þ@?继续??å®??±ä?ï¼?

????äº?ï¼?对ä?ä¸???º¿??èµ?????è¨?ï¼??°å?¨æ???þ@??»¥ä¹°å?¥ï?

????æ³?æ³???论ç??è¯?ï¼?é»????±ä??¶å???å±??§ï?è´§å????????????????¿é?©ç?ï¼?ï¼?å½±å??ä»·èµ°?¿ç????ç´?æ¯?è¾?å¤?ï¼?主è?????ä¸???ç´?å¦?ä¸?ï¼?

????ä¸????åº?????æ±???ä¾?åº?????æ±?ä¹?ä¼?å½±å??ä»·æ?¼ã??ä¾?å¦?ï¼?ä¸?¤®?¶è???è´?¹°???¿äº§äº§é????åº??????¶ä»¥????å®???ç§???è¡?ä¸???é»?????æ±???

????äº????¨ç??ç»?æµ??¶å?µã???¨ç?æµ?ä¸?ç¡???§å???§æ?¶ï?é»?????常è?è§?为é?¿é?©è?产ï?ä»·æ?¼å???½ä?ä¸?涨ã???¸å??ï¼?å½?ç»?æµ??????????¶ï???èµ??????½ä?è½????¶ä?é£??©è?é«???èµ?产ï?导è?´é??ä»·ä?è·???

????ä¸?????è´§è?¨è????é»???è¢??为æ?????è´§è?¨è????ä¸?ç§?ä¿??¼æ??段ã??å½???è´§è?¨è??é¢???ä¸????¶ï?é»???ä»·æ?¼å???½ä?ä¸?涨ã??

????????´§å¸??¿ç???å¤????è´§å??¿ç?对é???ä»·æ?¼å?·æ????è¦?å½±å????ä¾?å¦?ï¼?å½??©ç????ä½???????宽æ?¾æ?¿ç?å®??½æ?¶ï?é»???ä»·æ?¼é??常ä????°æ????ï¼???为è???ä½?äº?????é»??????ºä???????

????äº?????????°ã??é»???ä¸?ç¾???ä¹??´é??常å??¨è??¸å?³å?³ç³»??å½?ç¾???èµ°å¼±?¶ï?é»???ä»·æ?¼ç?¸å?è¾?é«?ï¼???ä¹?äºþ>?¶ã??

?????????°ç??¿æ²»é£??©ã???°ç??¿æ²»ç´§å?å±??¿å???½ä?导è?´å??ºé?¿é?©æ??ç»????ï¼?ä»??????????ä»·æ?¼ã??

????å½??¶ï?ä¸?ä¸?????èµ??ºæ??ä½??ºä¹°????令ï?ä¸?ä¼???è¿?ä¹??¤æ????»è???

?????³ä?é»?????èµ????»è?ï¼??¨é??æ¶??????¨å?»ä??£ä?å¹´ç?¨æ??ç«???康波ä½?ç³»ä???é»???ä»·æ?¼ã????è¿?è¡?è¿?ç³»ç?论述??ä»?说ï???2016年以?¥ç??é»???ä»·æ?¼å??å¼¹æ???é¢?æµ??¨æ?§é???¾ã??????é¢???以å??ç¾????¨ä¿®å¤??¨ç??é£??©å?±é???©æ?¨ç??ç»?????????以æ??对ä??¿æ³¢?¨æ??è¿?è¡???è§?å¾??¥ç??ï¼??¨æ???¥ç??3-5å¹´é??ï¼??±æ??ä»???å¤?????½®ä¸??¨æ?????±æ?ºæ??产ç?????§æ?¡å?å¸þB???ä»??康波??è¡°é????è¿??¥è?§æ?¡æ??ï¼?é»???èµ?产å?¨å??????¿æ³¢?¶ç?¹å?·æ??å¾?é«?????ç½?»·?¼ã????

????

????ï¼??°æ???¥æ?ï¼?????????ï¼?

?????¨å????2016å¹´å?»ä?äº???ä½?????ä»???»¥???°ï??¨ä??»ä?????å·??å¤?4å¹´ç???¶é?´é??ï¼???ä»·ä?1000ç¾???涨å?°ä?2000ç¾?????

?????¨é??æ¶??¨â??å¦?ä½???解é??ä»·å?¨å?¨æ??æ¡??¶ä¸­??è¿?è¡??»è???ä¸??ç»???è¿°ä?ä»?????究ä?ç³»ã??

????é¦???ä»?表示ï¼?è¿?代以?¥é?????ä»·æ?¼æ³¢?¨ç?±æ?¥è??´§å¸?å±?? ¬??è´?¹°??å±???»¥???¿é?©æ??ç»??å±??¢ç??å¸??ºå???????±å??主å?ï¼???æ­¤ï?对é??ä»·å??å½±å????ç´????¶é??è¦?ç¨?åºþ>??????????æ¸?é»???ä»·æ?¼ç??è¿?è¡??»è?????è¦????¥ç?¹ã??

??????STRONG>?¿æ??è¶??¿ï??¿æ³¢?¨æ??ï¼?ä¸????解é??????¹æ????§æ??§£??é»???ä»·æ?¼æ³¢?¨é??????³é?????¨é??æ¶?说ï?????ä»??为é??????¹æ????§æ??STRONG>ä¿¡ç?¨å???/STRONG>??ï¼???西è??¸æ?¾ç?¶ä?认å?????

????1971å¹´ç???ä¸?é»????±é?©å????为ä???è´§å?ä½?ç³»ç??ä¸??ï¼?ä½????¨æµ®?¨æ????¶ä?ä¿¡ç?¨å?¶åº¦ä¹?ä¸?ï¼?ç¾?????ä»·å?¼ä?稳å????¿æ???»å??è´??¼æ???½é??社ä???????忧å??ä¸?满ç???????é»???ä½?为æ?¾ç???å®??©è´§å¸?以å?????¥è´§å¸?ä¹???ï¼??¶ç??å®?ä»·å?¼ç?¸å?ç¾????´å???½é??社ä?认å????

????é»??????¹æ????§ä¸ºä¿¡ç?¨å??²ï?表ç?°ä¸º??ä»·ç???¿æ??æ³¢å?¨ä?å®?ä½?ä¿¡ç???å®?ä½?ä¿¡ç?¨å????为é?¿æ³¢ä¸»å??½ç??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿æ?¼å????¸å?强弱ï¼???è´§å?ä¿¡ç???????为å?¨ç??ä¿¡ç?¨è´§å¸??¶åº¦ä¸?è´§å?ä½?ç³»ç??稳å?ºæ?§ï????¸å?³ã??

?????·ä???è¨?ï¼??¨ç??½ä?为é?¿æ³¢ä¸»å??½ç???¶æ??ï¼?ç¾??½å?ä½?ç»?æµ?å¢??¿æ?¼å???ç¾???ä½?ç³»ç??稳å?ºæ?§æ??½±??é»???ä»·æ?¼é?¿æ??èµ°å?¿ç???¹æ????ç´????¿æ³¢ç¹??£å????ï¼?主å??½è´§å¸?å¤?äº?强å?¿è´§å¸??°ä?ï¼?è¿?ä¹???为å?????ä»·å?¨é?¿æ³¢å¤?????ç¹??£é?¶æ??????¶å??ç´?????è¿??¥é?¿æ³¢??è¡°é??????ï¼?????å®?ä½?ç»?æµ??¨å????æ¶?ç«??é»???èµ?产ç?¸å??¶ç??å°???æ­¥æ?¾ç?°ï??¥è??»·?¼ä?ç³»ç???¨è?¡æ?¢æ??????康波衰é??????è¦??²å?»æ?¥æ?ï¼?ä¹????ºæ???ä»·æ????????è¦??¨å?¨å????ï¼???ç»??¨å?¨ç??å®?ä½?ä¿¡ç?¨å??è´§å?ä¿¡ç?¨æ?¶å????驱å?¨ä?ï¼?é»???ä»·å?¼å?è¿??¥å??å½?ä¹?????

???????¶ï??¨é??æ¶????ºï?ç¾??½å????©ç?????¿æ??è¶??¿å??»¥????é»???ä»·æ?¼é?¿æ??èµ°å?¿ç???¸å?å½±å??????ï¼????°ç¨³å®???è´??¸å?³ï?é«??¹ä?ä½??¹å?åº?ï¼?è§?ä¸??¾ï????¨åº·æ³¢è¡°?????§æ?¡é?¶æ?ï¼?å®????©ç??æ°´å¹³å°??¨ç?æµ?æ½??¨å???ä¸?æ»???å®?ä½?ä¿¡ç?¨æ?¶å??ä¸?µ°ä½?ï¼?驱å?¨é???èµ?产è?·å?å·¨é??¸å??¶ç????

????

????ï¼??¾ç???¥æ?ï¼?ä¸?¿¡å»ºæ??ï¼?

????å¦?????ä»?»¥10å¹´æ??ç¾??½å?½å?ºæ?¶ç????è¿?项æ????ä½?为å????©ç?????¿ä»£ï¼??¶é?´ä??¥ç»­ä¸??¾ï????¨é??æ¶?ä»???å½?å¹´è?ä»????°æ?????ºæ?¥ï?ä¼?????STRONG>ä»??¶å»¶ç»??è¿?ç§???稳å???è´??¸å?³ã??é«??¹ä?ä½??¹å?åº??????³ç³»??

????

????ï¼??°æ???¥æ?ï¼?????????ï¼?

????å¦??????²æ?°æ??¡®å®??½æ??¤º??ç§?è§?å¾?ï¼?å¦????¨é??æ¶????????»è???ç¡???£ä?å°±å??»¥??ç­???????ç¬??ä¸????ï¼?

????é»???ä»·æ?¼ç???¿æ??èµ°å?¿å????äº?ç¾??½ç??è¡°é??ï¼?è¿??¢å??????½å?ä½?ç»?æµ???è¡°é??é¢???ï¼?ä¹????????ä½?系稳?ºæ?§ç??å¼±å??????èµ?é»?????大é?»è?ï¼?????½ä¸»å¯¼å?½å?°ä????¨æ?????¨ç???»ç?????æµ?½®??

?????¨é??æ¶????ºï?é»???ä»·æ?¼å??STRONG>ä¸???è·???????产è?½å?¨æ??è¿?è¡???è´?¹°????ç´???驱å?¨æ???????????å±??§å?¨ä¸­??å¾??°é???¾ç??主è???????é»?????è´?¹°??ï¼???常å?´ç?两个å±??¢å?å¼?ï¼?æ­£ç?¸å?³å?³ç³»ï¼?ï¼?ä¸????½æ?????å±?????产å????å·¥ä???????ä»·æ?¼ç???´ä?æ³¢å?¨æ??å¸þ=?¥ç???©ä»·æ°´å¹³??????äº????¨ç??è¶?é¢?æµ??¨æ?§æ°´å¹³ï??·ä?表ç?°ä¸º?¸å?äº??½ç??é©??å°?K?¼ï?广ä?è´§å?ä¾?ç»???/GDPï¼???

????ï¼?é»???ä»·æ?¼ä?äº?大ç?æµ?ä½?é©??å°?K?¼ï??¾ç???¥æ?ï¼???大è??¸ï?

???????????³å?é»???èµ?产ç?¸å??¶ç?????¸å???ç´???STRONG>?¨ç??é£??©å??å¥?/STRONG>???¨é??æ¶???????è¦?注æ????????¨ç?????¿é?©é??æ±???å±????ï¼?ç¾?????ç¾??½å?½å?ºã??é»???ä¹??´å??¨é??å½¢ç???¿ä»£?³ç³»ï¼???ä¸?è¿?ç§??¿ä»£?³ç³»?¨å??ºè?è¡???ä¸??????²é?¶æ???ä¸?????表ç?°å½¢å¼???

?????ºä?æ­¤ï?对ä?????ç¬??ä¸????ï¼?建è?综å??????ç¾??½å????©ç????èµ°å?¿ã??主è??½å??©ä»·æ°´å¹³????????æµ??¨æ?§ã??以å??å¸??ºé??©å??好ç???ç´???ç¬???认为ï¼?ä¸?????é»????¡ä?????ä¸?å¼¹æ?§ï???????ä¸?å®?è½»æ??追é???

????以ä????????§ä¸­ä¿¡å»º???¨é??æ¶???????????æ¡??¶æ?¥ç??解ã??å½??¶ï?ä¸???????究æ?ºæ??ï¼?对ä?é»?????ä»·æ?¼ï???ä¸?ä¸??·ç??????æ¡??¶ã????大è??¸å???????§ä?é»???ä»·æ?¼å???°é?åºþ>?¸å?³å?³ç³»????ä¸?????ï¼??¨ç?? ETF ??ä»???é©??å°? K ?¼ã??ç¾??½ä?å¹´æ?? TIPS ??ç¾????¨æ?»è??ºæ?¥è???????¥èµ°??/STRONG>ï¼??¨æ????ä¸????è¯þA¿°ï¼??????´è¶£????èµ??????¨æ??????è¨?ç´¢å??èµ?????

??????大è??¸æ??ä¸?????¡ä»·?¼å¼¹?§ï??¸å?äº???ä»·ï??¸å?³ç????究ç?论ï??´æ?¥è´´?¨è???ï¼?ä¾?大å?????ï¼?

????

??????以ï?ä¸?è¦??²ç??¨ç??å®?å¸??ºç???¢é?????????¨æ¸¯?¡å??A?¡å??ºæ?¢é????¡ç??大å?ï¼?大å?????è§?说ä?å®?æ¯?ä¸???????èµ????´æ????? ¬??

责任ç¼?è¾?ï¼???º®