????2023å¹???ç¾???PI??æ¯?ä½?äº????¼å??é¢???ï¼??¸å?CPI??æ¯???å¹³ä?é¢?????ä½?äº????¼ã??ç¾??½å?³å·¥???BLSï¼?5??10?¥å????°æ???¾ç¤ºï¼?ç¾?????CPI??æ¯?4.9ï¼?ï¼??¥ä?äº?é¢?????????ï¼?ï¼?å·²è?ç»?0ä¸???ä¸?æ»?ï¼?4??CPI???0.4ï¼?ï¼???å¹³ä?é¢?????é«?äº?????.1ï¼???4???¸å?CPI??æ¯?5.5ï¼?ï¼???å¹³é???ï¼??¥ä?äº?????.6ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?è¡?????è¾?ç¼??¾ç¤º????ç²??§ï?4???¸å?CPI???0.4ï¼?ï¼???å¹³ä?é¢????????¼ã??

????ç»???ä¸?ï¼?ä½??¿ç?????äº???è½þ:??汽油ç­???项ç???ä¸?涨è?å¿??é£??????»ç??ä¿??¥ç?ä»·æ?¼å¹³ç¨³ã??é¦???ï¼?CPIé£?????项è?ç»?ä¸???????¶å??¿ï?家庭é£???ä»·æ?¼ä?è·?ä¸?å¤??ºé???ä»·æ?¼ä?涨ç?¸ä??µæ????¶æ?ï¼?CPI?½æ???项ç???ä¸?æ¶?.6ï¼?ï¼??¾è??é«?äº?????3.5ï¼????¶ä¸­ï¼??½æ????¡ç???-1.7ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?????2.3ï¼?ï¼??½æ????????2.7ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?????4.6ï¼?ï¼??½æ?????ä¸??汽油??OPEC??产å????游æ?ºå???å½±å??ï¼????3ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?????4.6ï¼???æ­¤å?ï¼??¸å?????ä»·æ?¼ç???0.6ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?????.2ï¼?ï¼?????022年中??以æ?¥æ??大涨å¹?ï¼??¶ä¸­äº???è½þ@???¡è½¦???4.4ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?????0.9ï¼?ï¼??¸å????¡ç???0.4ï¼?ï¼???å¹³å???¼ï??¶ä¸­ä½??¿ç??????0.5ï¼?ï¼?ä½?äº?????.6ï¼???

????

????ä»?CPI??æ¯????¨ç??ï¼?4??ä½??¿ç??????¨è?3??å°?å¹?????.1ä¸??¾å???¹è??.8ï¼?ï¼?é£??????¨å????.2ä¸??¾å???¹è??.0ï¼?ï¼?交é??è¿?è¾????¡æ???¨å????.2ä¸??¾å???¹è??.6ï¼?ï¼??½æ???项è?ç»??äº?ä¸?????ç´?.4ä¸??¾å???¹ï?äº???è½þ@???¡è½¦??项ç????ç´???缩ç?0.1ä¸??¾å???¹è??.2ï¼?ï¼??¤ä?è¿°å??项ç?????¶ä???项ç??????.9ï¼???

????

????4???????°æ???????ï¼?å¸??ºå??¿ç??©ç??é¢???å°?å¹?ä¸?ä¿??ç¾??¡çº³????????00?¶æ¶¨ï¼?ç¾??ºå?©ç????ç¾??????°å?å¹?ä¸?è·???5??10?¥ï?CME FedWatch?¾ç¤º6??ç¾????¨å??æ­¢å??????æ¦???ï¼??±å??ä¸?天ç??78.8ï¼?ä¸?涨è??1.5ï¼?ï¼?12??è®????è®???????å¹³å???©ç??é¢???为ç?±å??ä¸?天ç??4.36ï¼???ä½???.26ï¼?ï¼??³å??ºè?ä¸?æ­¥æ?¼æ³¨ä¸???å¹´é????次ï?75BPï¼?å·þ@?³ã??å½??¥ï?ç¾??¡é???¼æ?????°å¾®è·?0.09ï¼?ï¼?????00???°å??纳æ??¾¾?????°å?????æ¶?.45ï¼???1.04ï¼?ï¼?ç¾??ºæ?¶ç?????¨çº¿ä¸?è·?ï¼?10å¹´ç??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è·?10BP??.43ï¼?ï¼?2å¹´ç??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è·?11BP??.90ï¼?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?è·?0.21ï¼???01.4ï¼?ä¼þ=?þB????°è´§ä¸?è·?0.23ï¼???029ç¾???/???¸ã??

????02

????1-4??ç¾??½é???????½æ?¾ç?

????2023å¹?-4??ï¼?ç¾??½é???????½é??åºþ=?2022ä¸???å¹´æ?´æ???ä¾?ç»??¹å??å¸þ=?¥ç???©å¥½æ­£å?¨è??å°½ï?????æ±?驱å?¨ç??????ä»??¶é¡½?ºã????ä»??ç®?ï¼?2023å¹?-4??ç¾???PIå¹³å?????å¢???ä¸?.35ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?2022ä¸???å¹´å¹³?????å¢?????0.23ï¼?ï¼??¸å?CPIå¹³å?????ä¿?????.42-0.43ï¼???é«?ä½???CPI???èµ°å?¿ä??????????¨ä?ï¼??¸å?????ä»??¶ç»´??é«?ä½?ï¼????½æ?ä»·æ?¼å???½å?CPI????ç´??¾è??ä¸???ï¼?2022ä¸???å¹´å?½é???½æ?ä»·æ?¼é?ä½????½ï?ç¾???PI?½æ???项平?????ä¸???2.2ï¼?ï¼?ä½?2023年以?¥è?½æ?ä»·æ?¼å?ºæ???稳ï??½æ???项平?????ä»?ä¸???0.4ï¼????¸å??????¹é???????è¦???ä½??¿ç??????å¢???ç»´æ??é«?ä½?ï¼???äº???è½þ?»·?¼æ?è·?????ï¼?并æ?µæ?äº??»ç??ä¿??¥ä»·?¼å???½ç???©å¥½????ä»??¨æ????¥å??ä¸?·²??示ï??¨ç??½é????ç»???ä¸??ä¾?ç»???ç´??¹å??????è¾¹é????å¼±ï?????æ±???ç´?没æ?????¾é??温ï?使å????????½ç??å¹?åºþ@???ï¼??????¥å????ç¾??½é??????????å¤???ç­?ï¼???

????

??????è¦????ºç?????ç¾??½æ?¸å????????§æ?§ä?å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹ç???§æ?§ç?¸å?¹é????2023å¹´ä?季度ï¼?ç¾??½ä¸ªäººæ?è´¹æ???ºç???大å?å¢???.7ï¼?ï¼???å¹´ç??ï¼?ï¼?对ä?季度ç¾???DP?????å¹´ç????è´¡ç???è¾?.5ä¸??¾å???¹ã??ç»???ä¸?ï¼????¡æ?费维??强å?²ï??????¨å??æ¶?è´¹æ???¾å????ï¼?å°¤å?¶æ?ºå?¨è½¦???¶é?¨ä»¶ç­?æ¶?è´¹æ???¾å??¿ï?ä¸?ç¾???PIäº???è½þ@???¡è½¦??项ç????å¼¹ç?¸å?¹é????ç¾??½å?æ°?æ¶?è´¹ç???§æ?§ï?ä¸?ä»?å¾???äº?å°?????å°½ç??è¶?é¢??¨è???????å¢??¿å??家庭èµ?产è??ºè¡¨?¥åº·ç­?ï¼?ä¹????½æ?¥è???æ°??¶å?¥å??è´¢å????????¹å????è´?º§?§å?©æ???¶å?¥ç??ä¸?????å®????¶å?¥ä?????æ¶?è´¹é????¹å??ç­?å¤??¹å??ç´?????ï¼??????¥å????对ç??½æ?è´¹é?§æ?§ç??ä¸??¹æ?????????¼è?ç¾??½ä?季度GDP?°æ????ï¼???

????03

????ä¸???å¹´ç??½é??????å¼¹é??©å?¼å??³æ³¨

????ä»?å¹´ä???å¹´ï?ç¾??½é????è¶?é¢???ä¸?è¡???é£??©å?¼å??³æ³¨??综å??????ç¾??½ç?æµ?ä¸?è¡?ä¸?????é»??§ï???ä»????ºå????设æ???2023å¹´å??ç¾???PI???å¢???å¹³å??????.3ï¼?å·þ@?³ï?ä»?äº?2023å¹?-4?????¼ï?0.35ï¼?ï¼???2022å¹´ä???å¹´ï?0.23ï¼?ï¼?ä¹??´ï?ä½?ä»?é«?äº?2015-2019å¹´å¹³??æ°´å¹³ï¼?0.15ï¼?ï¼?ï¼???å¼±å??设为0.2ï¼?ï¼??³è????ç¾??½é??æ±?èµ°å¼±??å½±å???´å¤§ï¼???强å??设为0.4ï¼?ï¼??³è????ç¾??½é????é»??§æ?´å¼º???????°ç??ä¾?ç»??²å?»ç?????设年??ç¾???PIå­£è????0.2/0.3/0.4ï¼?ï¼???2023å¹???ç¾???PIå­£è???æ¯???????¾¾??.2/3.4/3.6ï¼?ï¼?12????????¾¾??.9/3.8/4.6ï¼???è¿????³ç??ï¼??¨ä?季度ï¼??±ä??ºæ?°å????ï¼?ç¾???PI??æ¯?å¢?????å¿??????½èµ°?¿ï??³ä¾¿5????6??CPI???ä¿?????.4ï¼?é«?ä½?ï¼?CPI??æ¯?å¢???ä¹????½å???½è??.5ï¼?å·þ@?³ã???¨æ????´ï?å¸??ºå?容æ??对é???????½æ??ä¹?è§???æ³?ï¼?并忽è§?ç¾??½é???????èµ°å?¿ç???§æ?§ã??ä½?ä¸?季度以å??ï¼??ºæ?°æ??åº??©å¥½ä¸???ï¼??¨å?ºå????å½??ï¼?ç¾??½æ??é¢???????å¾????½ä?稳ã??

????

?????¨æ??ºç?ä¸?ï¼???ä»??ä¸?æ­¥æ??示ä???å¹´ç??½é????è¶?é¢???ä¸?è¡??????½æ?§ã??

????ç¬??ï¼?汽车价æ?¼å???½è?é¢???ä¸?è¡?????2021å¹´å??è´¢æ?¿å?ºæ??©å¥½ï¼?ç¾??½æ±½è½þ>????¨å??æ¶?è´¹ä?åºþ>????å¼?å¢??¿ï?ä½???021å¹´ä???年以?¥é??æ¸??·å?´ã???¶è??ï¼???????迹象表æ??ï¼?ç¾??½æ±½è½þ=?è´¹é??æ±?并æ????¨â??????????2023年以?¥ï??????½é??ä¾?åº??¾ç»§ç»?¿®å¤?ï¼???ä¸?å¤??°ç?µå?¨æ±½è½þ??ä¸???????ä»·æ?¼æ????ï¼?ç¾??½æ±½è½þ=?è´¹ä?稳å??????2023å¹´ä?季度ï¼?ç¾??½æ?ºå?¨è½¦???¶é?¨ä»¶æ¶?è´¹å??æ¯?å¢???.4ï¼?ï¼??¨è?ç»???¸ªå­£åº¦è´?å¢??¿å??å®??°æ?å¢??¿ã???´é?é¢????°æ????°è?äº?ç¾??½æ±½è½þ=?è´¹å??????è¶??¿ï?2023å¹?-3??ç¾??½å?½å??汽车??????æ¯?å¢???????¾¾5.8ï¼???7.5ï¼???9.2ï¼?ï¼?è¿?ç»??ä¸?????å¿???¿ã??汽车????????ä¼?å¤??汽车?¶é??????è´¢å?¡ç?¶å?µï?ä¹?ä¼????¶å?¶ç»§ç»???ä»·ç??空é?´ã??æ­¤å?ï¼?ç¾??½å???¡é?¨æ?°æ???¾ç¤ºï¼?????023å¹???ï¼?汽车?¶é????å­?è´§é????æ¯?å¢???ä¸?????.5ï¼?ï¼?è¿?ä¸??°å???018-19å¹´ç»´????0ï¼?å·þ@?³ï???示æ???¥æ±½è½þ??ç»????????½ä???????æ­¤å?¨ä???å¹´ï?ç¾??½æ±½è½þB?????°é????ä»·æ?¼å?????½è?é¢???ä¸?????

????