???¡æ?´å?ºï?ä½?ä½?寻æ?ºï?å¸??ºå??æ§å???§ï???ä»·å?¼è????????¿ï???大å?¸å??ç??¥æ?¥ä?
????ä¸?¿¡è¯??¸ï?主é?交æ??é¡¶å³°å·²è?ï¼?å¸??ºé????ä¸?绩驱??/STRONG>
????????ç»?æµ??¨é?¢ç³»ç»??§æ?¢å????è¿???æ¸?次ç??è¿?ç¨?ï¼?é£?è½????°æ??è½???è¦??¶é?´å????å¿?ï¼?主é?交æ?????é«???ç»?æµ?é¢???ä¸?ä¿??ç¨?ä¸????¶æ??§äº§?©ï?è¿?åºþ@??å¼???ä½?äº?å¸??ºå?ä»·ç???????§ï?ä½?ä¹???é«?äº?ä¸?绩驱?¨ç??¥ç??æ½??¨å???¥ï?主é?交æ????é¡¶å³°å·²è?ï¼?????ä½?ä½?ä¸?绩驱?¨æ?¿å????
????é¦???ï¼????¡ä?ä¿??è½?????为å?¨é?¢ç??å°±ä?å¢??¿ä»¥??ä¿¡å??¢å????è¿???è¿?ç¨?ï¼?å½??????¶ç?æµ???ä»·æ?¼æ?§ã??æ»????§å???¨ç???§å??ç´??¨ä???å¹´æ??æ¸?次ç?è§£ã???¶æ?ï¼?????å½???ç»?æµ?å¢??¿é??????³å?°ç?¹ï?主é?交æ???¶æ??§ç???ï¼?主é??¿å?????¨ç??æ¿?????å¼???æ¶????¾ä»¥??ä¹???????ï¼?å¸??ºç??å?????å¼??¹å?å·²æ?ç»??°æ???´ï?缺ä??¿å????åº???为å?¶çº¦ä¸?å°?绩ä??¡å?ä»·æ?????§ç????ç´?ï¼?ä½?ä¸?绩驱?¨ç??¥ç???¿æ??æ½??¨å???¥å????ä¸?????é«?ï¼?å¸??ºæ??????ä¸?绩驱?¨ã??
????主é?交æ????é¡¶å³°å·²è?ï¼?????ä½?ä½?ä¸?绩驱?¨æ?¿å??ï¼?é¦???ï¼??»è????????ä¿??ç¡???§æ??é«?????ç§?ï¼?建è??³æ³¨?¨ç??æµ??¨æ?§æ???¹å??管线?????????????°è???????å¤????????°å?»ç???¨æ?ï¼??????»ç???°å?ºå»º??设å??¿å??ï¼?以å??产ä??»è???ä¸?绩驱?¨ç??ä¸??????°ã???¶æ?ï¼??°å?ç»?æµ?????ä¸?å¸þ??è·???ä¾??¶æ???¨å¹´çº§å????主线ï¼?????建è??³æ³¨ä¸?绩å?å§????°ç????导ä?设å?????ä¿¡è?å¤???ä¿¡å??ï¼?????建è??³æ³¨ä¼?è´¨ä?ä¸??ºæµ·ï¼?以å???°è???ºå»º???½æ?é¢?????æ½??¨å??ä½???????ï¼?建è??´ç?ä¸???å¹´ä?绩æ??ç»?¿®å¤????¿å??å¸?å±?ï¼?ä¾?å¦??°è?½æ?ä¸??????µã?????µæ¡©????ä¼???????é£??µï??¨æ???¿å??ä¸????¤ç????æ²¹æ????µå????大ç?¼å??ï¼?大æ?è´¹æ?¿å??ä¸???å®¶ç?µã??纺ç???è£????????¶é?????ä¸????²ã??
????广å??è¯??¸ï???ä¼°å?¼å¡«??????ç¨?ï¼?????è½???¥â??è½???/STRONG>
???????´æ????è¡???主线????ï¼?23å¹´â??ä¹°å????????????????ä¸???å¥????¿ç???è½????ä¸??¹ä¼°??å¤??½ä???ä¼?amp;ï¼??°å?ç»?æµ?AI+??????½®å®½ä¿¡?¨æ?°æ????ï¼?ä¹???2.10以æ?¥â??ä¼°å?¼æ?å£????¶æ?????????¹å??ï¼????°å???è½???°äº§?????????¹ï?ä¼???ä½?ä¼°å?¼é??gè¡?ä¸?ï¼???ç¾??ºå??è½??æ¸??¡å¤©äº??ï¼???
?????¿ç???è½????ä¼°å?¼å¡«??????ç¨?ï¼???ä¸??¹ä¼°-å¤??½ä???ä¼°â??ä»???ä¿??空é?´ã????????ï¼???½®ä¼°å?¼å???????¶æ???????17å¹´å????ä½?ä½?ï¼???2.10以æ?¥â??ä¼°å?¼æ?å£????¶æ??è¡??³å??ç¨?ï¼???ä¸??¹ä¼°-å¤??½ä???ä¼°â??ä»???ä¿??空é?´ã??ä¸?????ï¼???ä¸??¹ä¼°-å¤??½ä???ä¼°â?? ?????°å?ç»?æµ?AI??å°????????°ç????§ç????ä¼°å?¼æ?©å?????ä¸??¹ä¼°-å¤??½ä???ä¼°â??建è??????¡è?????ä¸?????è·??ä¸????³æ³¨å¤???½é????ç»??¥è?½å????é«???çº ¬??å¤????建â??ä¸?å¸þ??è·????¸å?³æ????ï¼?建ç?è£?饰ã??å·¥ç??ºæ?ç?è¡?ä¸?ï¼?äº???º§ä¸??¿ç?????ä¸???è½?????级路线ï??³æ³¨ç»¿è?²å??è½??????°å???è½??????³æ²¹???µå????ä¿¡æ?????ºæ?ç?è¡?ä¸?ï¼?ä¸????³æ³¨??ä¸???ä¸?æµ???å¤????建è?è¿?åºþ@???¸å?³æ?¿ç?ï¼???ä¿¡ã???µå?????©º??¤©??汽车???µå??ç?è¡?ä¸?ï¼??????³æ³¨?????ç´???ä¾??¹ï????¡â???????ä»·â????ä»·å?¼å??å½?ï¼???æ³????¨ä?ä¸?????交è????µå??????ä¿¡ç?è¡?ä¸???
?????°å???è½??ä¼???ä½?ä¼°å?¼é?????ç§?????ä»?»ºè®??¨æ???é¢???è¾¹é??ä¸?ä¿???ç»???é¢???ä¸??ä¼???ä½?ä¼°å?¼é?????ç§??????¤ä??¼å?·â???¿ç???è½???线索??TMTä¹?å¤?ï¼??¨å??ä¼?ç»??¶é??è¡?ä¸?ï¼????设å?/??è·???·¯/æ©¡è????è£??°å????æ°?/轨交设å?ï¼???æ¶?è´¹è?ä¸?ï¼?ä¼??²é???/é¥???ä¹³å??/??娱ç?¨å??/??è£?家纺/?µè?广æ???4??åº??³ä????©é???è¾¹é??ä¸?ä¿?????¶å?¼å?·ä?ä¼°å?¼å??ä½??°å??é«?å¼¹æ?§ï??gï¼???
????ç¾??ºå??è½??4??CPIå»¶ç»ç¼???ï¼?å¢?大è????????æ¢å??????????¨æµ·å¤?æµ??¨æ?§ç?è§£è?????ï¼?æ¸??¡æ??èµ?é£??¼è???þ
????æ¸??¡ç??å¸?ï¼?A?¡ä¿®å¤?å¸?ï¼?23å¹´é??ç½?»§ç»????þ9????ï¼?????ä¸???å¥?????ç½??ï¼?1ï¼??¿ç???è½????ä¸??¹ä¼°??å¤??½ä???ä¼°â???????°å?ç»?æµ?AI+??????½®ä¿¡ç?¨æ?©å??°æ????ï¼???????ï¼???ä¼°å?¼å¡«????è¡???å¤?äº???ç¨?ï¼???ä¸??¹ä¼°-å¤??½ä???ä¼°â??ä¼°å?¼ä¿®å¤?ä»???空é?´ï?ä¸??¿æ????ï¼?两è????????为å??ç»?????§â??ä¼°å?¼æ?©å???主å??§å????ï¼??µå??/??ä¿¡è??¥å??/交è?/ç®????´æ?ºè????/ä¼?åª?/??模å??ç?ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?2ï¼??°å???è½??ä¼???ä¸?绩é???ä¸?ä¿???ä½?ä¼°å?¼é??gï¼?ä¼??²é???/??è£?家纺/??è·???·¯/轨交设å?ç?ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?3ï¼?ç¾??ºå??è½????æ¸??¡å¤©äº????ï¼??°å?ç»?æµ?AI+ï¼?äº???ç½?巨头/AI???¡å????信主设å???ï¼???å¤??½ä???ä¼°ï??µå??/??ä¿¡è??¥å??/建ç?ï¼?ï¼?广ä?æµ??¨æ?§æ????+???¿ï????°è???¨æ?/é»???ï¼?ç²¾é??å¿???æ¶?è´¹ï??¤é????
??????å®?è¯??¸ï?å¤?????æ³?TMT??ä¸??¹ä¼°ä»????¨å¹´??ä¼??¹å??
???????¨æ???°é???¡è??´ï???????ä¸??¹ä¼°????ä¼?åª?ç?强å?¿æ?¿å?????¤è?å¤?ï¼???å¸??ºè???????è½??¨å?°ä?ä¼°å?¼æ?¿å????å±?????å¸?ï¼??½å???????°æ??µ°å¼±ï??¨æ????ä»·æ?¼å??ä¹??¨é???è¡?ï¼?ç»?æµ?å¢??¿ä¿®å¤??¨è?½è½¬å¼±ï?å¸??ºå?è´§å?宽æ?¾å??????????温ã?????¶ç??½é????å¦??????½ï???æ¶?äº?å¸??ºå?ç¾????¨è?ä¸?æ¥å??????é¢?????å¿§ã???¨æ????ä¸?ï¼?é¢?计å??ºä?å°?ç»´æ?????¡æ?¼å?ä¸???ï¼???ç½?????????????¡ä?ä¼°å?¼ã??????涨å?è¾?å°????¿å??ï¼?ä¸??¿æ??ä»????¹æ???¡ä¸¤?¡ä¸»çº¿å??ä¸?ä¸?¸»é¢?ï¼?主线ä¸????æµ?å¤??????¹è½¬????æ±?ç«???³æ³¨æ¶?è´¹é??¼ç??é£???é¥??????»è?????©ï?äº???MT产ä?è¡??????ï¼?ä»???????¹å??ï¼?建è??¨é??ä¿¡å???µå?ä¸?»§ç»??????ºä??????¶ä????³æ³¨ä¸??¹ä¼°æ¦?念ä???????è¡???ï¼?ä½?ä¼°å?¼ä?è¡?ä¸??ºæ???¢æ?¹å?????¶è?????????ä¸?å¸þ??è·?¸¦?¨ç??ä¸??头建ç???建æ????
???????§å??é¢????¨å?¨ä??¿ç??©ç??é¢?计ä?å°?ä¸?è¡?ï¼?MLF?©ç????ä½?æ¦???å°?äº?LPR??å?款å?©ç?????ä¸???ä¸?è°?å¼???å¸??ºé?????????温ï?é¢?计é?¿ç??©ç??ä»?å°?ä¸?è¡???æµ??¨æ?§å?è£???ç§?????4??社è??å£è???§èµ°å¼±ï???ç»?¿¡è´·æ?¤å????????å°?ï¼?é¢?è®???社è??å°?????好转??
?????????°æ??¤§å¹?èµ°å¼±ï¼?ä½?对ä?ç»?æµ?å¤???????????è¿?åºþ=??å¿§ã??4???????°æ??¤§å¹?èµ°å¼±ï¼?主è?æº??????????油价?¼æ??ç´??ä½????¡ç±»CPI??æ¯?1ï¼?è¾?ä¸???ä¸?æ¶?.2ä¸??¾å???¹ï??¸å?CPI??æ¯?0.7ï¼?ä¸?ä¸?????å¹³ã?????å¾?¶¨0.1ï¼?ï¼??¾ç¤ºç»?æµ?ä¾??¶å?¨ä¿®å¤?????å½?ä¸??????å¯?2ç»?æµ?ä¿??????è¿?åºþ=??å¿§ã??
????ç¾??½é???????½ï?????ç¾????¨é??æ¥è½¬??宽æ?¾ã??4??ç¾???PI???½è??ï¼?以ä?ï¼?ç¬þ@??å¸??ºé?????????å¦??????½ï?????????ç¾????¨é??æ¥è½¬??宽æ?¾ã????æ¶?è¿?ä¸?æ¥å???????ï¼?ä½?å°???????????¡ä»¶????ç¾??½é?????°æ???´ä?ä¸?对é??©å??好æ?????????ä½???åºþ=??????
????è¡?ä¸???ç½???????¨ä?ä¼°å?¼å??ä½?涨å?ä¸???¾å??¨è¾¹??ï¼?ä¸??¿æ??ä»????è´¹å?????æ³?TMT??ä¸??¹ä¼°???¹å??ï¼?è°??´å???³æ???å±?????/P>
????ï¼?1ï¼?ä¸??¿æ???³æ³¨ä¸¤æ?¡ä¸»çº¿å??ä¸?ä¸?¸»é¢???
?????? æ¶?费带?¨ç?æµ?å¤???å·²ç?ç¡??ï¼?æ¶?è´¹é??¼å°¤?¶æ?????¡æ?è´¹æ?´é??è¢???è§???æ¶?è´¹æ?¿å??å??¨è?大ç??é¢???å·?????¹å?³æ³¨é£???é¥??????»è?????©ã??
????? TMT产ä?è¡??????ï¼?ä»???????ç»????ºä???计ç??ºå??ä¼?åª???ä¼°å?¼æ????å·²ç??¥è???è§þ@?????²å???天è?±æ?¿ä?ç½????æ¤ç»§ç»??ä¸?空é?´æ????ï¼?å¾?ä¼°å?¼å???½æ??æ¶?????ä»?????ç½???????ä¿¡å???µå?ä¼°å?¼ä?ä½?ï¼??????¿æ?¥ä¼°?¼æ?©æ?£æ?ºä?ï¼???æ¤æ?´å?¼å??????¶ä¸??ç»????ºä???
??????¸»é¢???èµ?ï¼???ä¸??¹ä¼°??ä»??????ºç?°æ?°ç??????è¡???????ç»????????????ä¸???äº?ä¸?å¸þ??è·?³°ä¼????½ä??¹é?©æ?¹æ??ºå?°å???½å?°ç???ä¸??¹ä¼°???å¹´æ??大ç??主é??§æ??èµ??ºä?ï¼?è¡????´å?以波段æ?§ç?¹å?为主ï¼???æ¤è??´æ??ä¾??´å¥½??ç½????ºã???³æ³¨?¶è????ºå»º?ºæµ·?¸å?³ç??ä¸??头建ç???建æ????
????ï¼?2ï¼?å¦?ä½???å¾??????¡â??ä¸??¹ä¼°????ä¸??¿æ??è¡???????å¥?ï¼?
??????ä¸??¹ä¼°??è¡???å°????½æ??为ä?å¹´æ??大ã??????è¦?????é¢?ç¹???主é??§æ??èµ??ºä?ï¼???ç»??å°???许å???????ï¼??????ä¸???äº?ä¸?å¸þ??è·?³°ä¼????½ä??¹é?©æ?¹æ??ºå?°å???½å?°ç???ä½???注æ???????ä¸??¹ä¼°è¡???å¹¶é?????¿ç??ä¸?涨ç??è¡???ï¼????´å????½å???°å?ºæ³¢æ®µæ?§è??å¥????¹å?ï¼???æ¤å?ä¸??¹ä¼°?ºç?°é?¶æ??§ä?è·????¶å??ï¼?å®???ä¸?å°?????¥½??å¸?å±???ç½???ºã??
????ï¼?3ï¼?è°??´è???½¬??ï¼?å¦?ä½???å¾?æ³?TMTè¡???ï¼?
????TMTè¡??????ä¸?è·??§è´¨ä¸ºè??´è????è½???ï¼??¿æ???¥ç??ä»?å°???为å?¨å¹´??ç»???ç§???主线?????è°??´ç????????ä¸?ï¼???æ³?TMTè¡?ä¸?ä¸?壿?¥ä?绩æ?ä½³ï????¶æ???¡å?¨å????èµ????????ºæ?????????°é?è¯?ï¼??¡æ?TMTè¡?ä¸?ä»?å¹´å???³ä?å·²ç?ç§?´¯äº?大é??è¶?é¢??¶ç??å??¨è?·å?©ä?ç»???????ï¼??¢æ?TMTè¡???ç´??交æ????º¦è¿?é«?ï¼??¨å???èµ?????å¼?ä¸?¼ºä¹??°ç??è¿??ºè?????ä½?ä¹???è¦?认è??°æµ·å¤?ChatGPTæ£å????¨å¹¶ä¹?å·²ç?å½¢æ??äº????????ä¸?模å?ï¼?éª?è¯?äº?AI???¨æ?¹å??????å±???????¿æ???¥ç???½å??????ä¹?å°???æ¸?追赶ï¼?å¹¶ä????°å?ä¸??½â??建è?å®?è°?è¾?é«?ï¼????¥â??ç½?+ç®?????建è?空é?´å¹¿??ï¼?????å¾??¿ç?è¿?ä¸?æ¥è?½å?°ã????æ¤æ??ä»??为æ?TMTä»?å°???为å?¨å¹´??ç»???ç§???主线??
?????½æ³°??å®?ï¼?èµ?产è??ä¸?主é?为ç??
????å¤???é¢?????¸´????ï¼?å¸??ºé?????è¦??´å?ºã??è¿?ä¸??¨ä?è¯????°å?²é????½å¹¶??次快??è°??´ï?ä¸?4??18??4??25?¥ç?±æ?°è?½æ??©ç©ºä¸?ä¸???³ç³»?²å?»ä¸»å¯¼è??´ä???ï¼?è¿?????è°??´å?¨è?ä¸?å±??¢å???´ä¸ºå®½æ?ï¼?æ³¢å?¨ç??æ£å?¨ä???????ä»??为ï?A?¡å??ºå?ºç?°è??´ä¸»è¦???ä¸?大å????ï¼?1ï¼?临è?3400å¸??ºå??å¤??????¿å??å¼±ã??两å???交é??????ï¼?å°¤å?¶æ??¸å?头ä??????¿å???¨ç????è¿?å¿??涨å???ºç?°ä??´ï?2ï¼?ä¸??¹ä¼°ä¸?AIæ¦?念æ?¿å?????¶ç?????令å??ºç¼ºä¹???è¶³å?容é????å¸??ºä¸»çº¿ï?3ï¼?å¤???æ£å?¨å??å¾?ä¸?稳å???è¿????????4???°å?社è???????å¹?ï¼??¸è?äº?3??ï¼?为è?5å¹´ä???ï¼??¾ç¤ºä¿¡è´·??æ±??²è½¯ï¼?äº?ä¸???ä¸?????å¦??°äº§?????????¡æ?è´¹ã????产ä?å¼?å·¥ã?????????¿ç??ºç?°ä??¨é?¢èµ°ä½?ï¼?è¿???????????¨æ??¨ä»¤??èµ???对ä?å¤?????é¢?????¸´????ï¼?人æ?å¸?æ±??????ºå?¸å??ºå?©ç????æ¥è¡¨è¾¾ã????ä»??为ï?ç»?æµ???æ±?ä¸?å¸??ºä¿¡å¿?????è¦??´å????´æ???????¿ç?ä¿¡æ???ä½?å°???????????æ¤é??æ±?走软ä¸??¿ç?????两è??????ä½???ï¼?å¸??ºé???æ³¢å?¨æ?¾å¤§ï¼???è¦??¶é?´æ?´å?ºï??¡ç¥¨å¸??ºä»¥???¡ä?ç»???è¡???为主??
????å?款å?©ç??æ°´å¹³ä¸???ï¼?èµ?产è??ä¸?é¦???ä¸??¹ä¼°+ç±»å?ºé??¡æ????¥ä????¿ä¸»é¢?ç??¥ã??4??以æ?¥ï?å¤?å®¶é?¶è?å°?3å¹´æ??å?款å?©ç??è°?????ï¼?以ä?ï¼?5????管æ?´é¡¿???¥å?款ç?ç±»å?款工?·ï?è°???å¹?åºþA?大ï???é£??©è?产ç???¶ç??è¿?ä¸?æ¥ä?????A?¡å???²ä??¾æ??å¤?次å????äº???é£??©å?©ç??ä¸?????è¡???ï¼?å¦?14å¹´ä¿¡?????´å??????19å¹´ç??è´¢å???¼å?????´å??????20å¹?????è´¢ç?´å????11??æ°¸ç?¤å?ºæ?´é?·ç?ï¼???è¯?ä¼°æ???å½±å????å·???¹å?¨ä?ï¼?ä¸?ä¸??????缺ä????主线?????°è?产è?????¹å?ï¼?ä¼?è´¨è?产ä?ç»?ä¸?è¶³ï??¶æ?å¸??ºæ?´ä???é£??©å??好两??????ï¼??¨å????é«?ï¼??¨å????ä½?ï¼?ï¼???æ¤å??ºç?????©é?¢å¹¶ä¸?å¤?ï¼??½å??¿æ?¥æ??????äº??©ç??ä¸???ï¼?æµ??¨æ?§ä?ç»?ï¼???èµ?产ç?¸å?????ï¼?å°?以主é¢?ç??¥æ??强æ?¿ç?为主????ä»??为æ??èµ??ºä?主è??¨å?·æ??ä½?ä¼°å?¼å???¶ç??ä¼??¿ç??é«??¡æ????¥ï?ä¸?ç§??????¿ä¸»é¢?ç??¥ï?以ä?两è?????¶å?åº??½æ??ç»?æµ??¹é?©ä??°ä»£??产ä?ä½?ç³»ç????建ã??
?????¨è??é£??©ç?¹å?ä¸?é«???????äº??°ä»£??产ä?ä½?系建设ç?????¿è?¡ï?ä¸??¹ä¼°/?°å?ç»?æµ?/???°è??amp;ï¼???导ä???ä¸?ä¸??¶æ??ºä????þ@?¨äº§ä¸??¿ç???è¿?ä¸?æ¥å?????????©å?¨æ??è§?åº???交æ??ç»???è¾?好ç???¡ç¥¨??1ï¼??½æ??ç»?æµ??¹é?©ï?&ï¼?ä¸??¹ä¼°ï¼?ä¸?ç±»å?ºé??¡æ??????èµ?产ç????ä¼?建ç?/?³å??/??????2ï¼??´ç??°ä»£??产ä?ä½?系建设ï??¨è???¡ä»·è°??´å?????????©é???è§?åº?ï¼?å¾??ç¹ç???ºæ?ï¼?ä¸?ä¸???维度?????¨æ???§å????????????°æ?¿å??ï¼?ç¾???紧缩?¨æ????尾声ä¹????©ä??¿ä???èµ?产ï??¨è??ä½?ä½????¿ï????°è????导ä?ï¼???¸»???§æ?¹å??ï¼?ï¼?以å???¿ç?????è¿?ä¸?æ¥å???????°æ???ç´?&ï¼?ç»?æµ??¸å?³å??¿å??:è¿??¥å??/äº?????ç®???/?°æ????¨ç???3ï¼?ä¼?ç»?é¢???å¸?å±????§ä»·æ¯?æ¶?è´¹â?????¿ç???:?¤é??/é¤?é¥??åº???é»?????å®???
????主é?ä¸?ä¸??¡ï???????建ç?°ä»£??产ä?ä½?ç³»ã???°å?ç»?æµ?ä¸?æ¶?è´¹ç?µå??°ç?©ç???1ï¼???æ±?稳å??????è¡?????¹å??ä¸??·å??¿ç??????¹å??ï¼??¨è???µå??è¿??¥ï??½ç?µç?µå??/????????广å???å±?ï¼?/???µæ¡©ï¼???å¼??¡ä»½/绿è?½æ?§å??ï¼?ï¼?2ï¼???ç??°ä»£??产ä?ä½?ç³»ï?ç»´æ?¤äº§ä¸?å®??¨å??å¢?强ç????????¼º?½å??ï¼??¨è????导ä?ï¼?ä¸????½é??/???¹æ?ä½?ï¼?/é«?ç«??å¤?ï¼?ä¸?¾®????纽å??°æ?§ï?ï¼?3ï¼??°æ???ç´????????°æ???产价?¼ï??°å?产ä???èµ???ç»?æµ?å¢??¿æ?°å?¨è?½ï??¨è??è¿??¥å??ï¼?ä¸??½ç§»???/è½?»¶???¡ï?æ·³ä¸ç§???/?????µå?ï¼???主é??¨è??:??å®?/?????°å?/?°å?????/?°æ???ç´?/???°è???ºæµ·??
????æµ·é??è¯??¸ï???æ§â????ä»·å?¼è??????¿ï?
????è¡?ä¸?è§?åºþ>??ï¼?åº??¨å??è½?»¥?¥ä»·?¼ã?????¿å???¨å???????¾ã????ä»??¨å????å¤?ç¯??¥å??ä¸????ºå?»å¹´10??åº??¥å??ºå·²è¿??¥ç??å¸???????ç¬??æ³??涨ã??ä»??´ä???ï¼?å¸??ºå¹¶æ²¡æ?????°ä¸¥?¼ç??é£??¼å????ï¼??»å¹´10??åº?以æ?¥ç?³ä?ä¸?级è?ä¸?ä¸????¿ç±»è¡?ä¸???大涨å¹?ä¸???°ä¸º27.3ï¼?ï¼?ä»·å?¼ç±»è¡?ä¸?ä¸???°ä¸º24.3ï¼?ï¼??????³ä?ä¸?级è?ä¸???涨å?ä¸???°ä¸º24.5ï¼???ä»???大涨å¹?å±???20ï¼???ä¸???é£??¼è?ä¸??°é????æ¯???ï¼????¿ç±»??æ¯?ä¸?0ï¼???ä»·å?¼ç±»ä¹?ä¸?0ï¼?ï¼???????¿ã??ä»·å?¼è?ä¸??´ä?表ç?°å¹¶?????¾å??????
???????°è?åºþ>??ï¼?ä»·å?¼ã?????¿å???¨å???????¾ã??ä»?代表?§ç??é£??¼æ???°ç??ï¼?é£??¼ç?¹å?ä¹?å¹¶ä???ç¡????»å¹´10??åº?以æ?¥æ???¿é??¼æ???°ä¸ç§???50??大涨å¹?ä¸?8ï¼?ï¼?ä»?å¹´å??以æ?¥æ??大涨å¹?ä¸?2ï¼?ï¼?ä¸???ï¼?????ä¸??¿æ??ä¸?9ï¼?ï¼?3ï¼?ï¼????½è????¿ä¸º19ï¼?ï¼?2ï¼?ï¼???ä¸??500ä¸?3ï¼?ï¼?11ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?ä»·å?¼é??¼æ???°ä¸?½è?ä»·å?¼ä¸º28ï¼?ï¼?17ï¼?ï¼???ä¸?è¯?50ä¸?7ï¼?ï¼?6ï¼?ï¼???ä¸??100ä¸?4ï¼?ï¼?13ï¼?ï¼?????ç§?é£??¼ç?????°è¡¨?°ä???ï¼??¶è????æº?äº????°ç??????è¡?ä¸?????ä¸?????以æ???¿é??¼ä¸??ä¸??¿æ????ç§???50为ä?ï¼?22/10??åº?以æ?¥å??ä¸??¿æ??èµ°å?¿ç?¸å???å¼±ï???大涨å¹?ä»?ä¸?9ï¼?ï¼??¶æ????è¡?ä¸?ä¸?¡¨?°è?å¼±ç???µå??设å???????æ¯?é«?è¾?5ï¼?ï¼???ç§???50å®??°æ??大涨å¹?28ï¼?ï¼??¶æ????è¡?ä¸?ä¸?¶¨å¹?å±?????ç§???è¡?ä¸???????æ¯?é«?è¾?2ï¼???
????è¿??»ä?段æ?¶é?´å??ºæ????å¸?????????ç»?¿®å¤?????顾å???²ä???å¸?ä¸?涨ç?ä¸??¶æ?ï¼???»¥???°æ???´å??ºå?å¾????°æ??¶¨??è½?¶¨???¹å?ï¼?ä¸???é£??¼æ???°è¡¨?°å·®å¼?ä¸?大ï?05/06-05/09???´æ???¿ç´¯è®¡æ¶¨18ï¼???ä»·å?¼æ¶¨19ï¼?ï¼?08/10-08/12ä¸?8ï¼???21ï¼?ï¼?12/12-13/02ä¸?3ï¼???32ï¼?ï¼?19/01-19/04ä¸?5ï¼???32ï¼?????¶¨??è½?¶¨??????æº?äº?å¸??ºè????¨èµ·?¥å??ï¼?å¤?ä½?ä½???è¡?ä¸?容æ?????°æ?¿ç??©å¥½??é¢????¹å????????ï¼??ºç?°ç???????¾ç??ä¸?æ¶??ä½??±ä?æ¤æ?¶å?ºæ???¢ç??è¶??¿å?????ç¡??该é?¶æ?è¡???å¾?å¾?ä¸?å??¨ç?¹å???主线ï¼???æ¤é??¼ç?¹å?å¹¶ä????¾ã??
???????¥å??ºä?è¿??¥ç???©é©±?¨ã?????¿æ?¶é?´ç??ï¼??¡ç¥¨????°â??ç§°é???ºâ??ï¼??ºæ???¢å?³å??¡ä»·æ¶¨è?ï¼????©è??¿ç???????³å????¥é??¼ç??èµ°å????
????å¸??ºå?¨å¹´??ä¸?è¶??¿ä???ï¼??¶æ??§è???¿ä¸??ä»??????¨æ????ä¼°å?¼ã???ºæ??? ¬??èµ????¢ç?维度?¥ç??ï¼?22å¹?0??åº?以æ???¡å·²ç»?è¿??¥æ?°ä?è½???å¸??¨æ????ä½???å¸?å¾?å¾??¾ä»¥ä¸?è¹´è??å°±ï?äº?å£åº¦å¸??ºå???½å????¿é?¶æ?ï¼?äº?å£åº¦ä»¥æ?¥å??ºè¡¨?°ä??°è?????ä»????¤æ????å½???å¸??ºæ?å¤??¨ç??å¸?????ï¼?就好æ¯???¤©å·²è????¥å¤©?°æ?¥ï?æ°?温æ?´ä?å·²å?¨å????ï¼?ä½?????温度ä»????½ä?ä¸?æ³¢å?¨ã????æ¤ï?å¸??ºç???????½å?ºç?°å?å¹????¡ç?????µï??¶è????æº?äº???å¸??????ºæ???¢è?ä¸?å¤???å®?ï¼??´æ?????°å?¶ä???ç´????°å?¨ã??????å®?è§?ç»?æµ??°æ???¾ç¤ºå½????ºæ???¢æ?¢å?å°?ä¸???å®?ï¼?4??PMI???°å???½è??9.2ï¼?ï¼?ä»?ä¿¡è´·?°æ????ï¼?4???°å?ä¿¡è´·??社è???°æ???ä¸?å£åº¦?????¾èµ°å¼±ï?ä»??©ä»·?°æ????ï¼?4??CPI??æ¯?ç»§ç»???¾å???½è??.1ï¼?ï¼?PPI??æ¯?????3.6ï¼?ï¼??¾ç¤ºå½???ç»?æµ?å¤???ä»??¶è?å¼±ã??综å???¥ç??ï¼?å½????½å???ºæ???¢å????ä»???è¦?ä¸?ä¸??ç¨?ï¼????¥ç??????å¸??ºæ?´å???½ç»§ç»???¨è???¿æ????
?????´ä?è¯??¸ï??????èµ????????§é?¶æ??§ä???
????ç»???è½??¨å¼ºåºþ:??ç»?æµ?é¢???å·???ä¼°å??涨è?å¹??¹é??åºþ??ä¸????????¤æ?????ä»??¤æ????ä¸??¹ä¼°????ç»??è¿??¥å?°å???¨è½®?¨ã???????¶æ???
??????????ä¸??¹ä¼°??ä»?æ¤å????è´?å¡??§ç??ä¿??è¿??¥å?°å???¨è½®?¨ã???????¶æ?ï¼?????¹å????????å¾?è¶?é¢??¶ç??ï¼?ç»?????ä¸??¹ä¼°????ä¸?ä¸???èµ???å¼?ï¼?1??ä½?ä¼°å?¼ã??é«???çº??2???¿ç???ç»?????ï¼?3?????ä¿??é¢???ï¼?ï¼??¤ä??½æ??¾ã????ä¸?å¸þ??è·?????è¿??¥å??ç?ä¹?å¤?ï¼?å½?????ä»?»ºè®??³æ³¨?ºæ?ï¼????¹ï???交è?ï¼???·¯????è·???æ¸??£ï???大å???¶è?ç?ç»????¹å????
????1ï¼??ºæ?ï¼????¹ï?ï¼??¹è?¶å?¶é??ä¸?ä½?为å?½å????¹æ?????????¥æ?§äº§ä¸?ä¹?ä¸?ï¼?è¿?å¹´æ?¥ç???äº?è¡?ä¸?è°??´å??产è?½è??©ç???°å?ï¼?ä½?è¿????¿å?????å·²å?¨æ?¹å??ï¼?ä¸??¹é????????¨ç?????å¸??ºé??æ±?æ£å?¨å??¿ï?å¸þ=?¥å??????åþ@???¹ä?????油轮?¹ç??订å??大å????????þ???¹é????½ä??¹é?©æ?¨å?¨é???¹ä?ä¸???ç»??´å????产è?½ä???ä¹?ä¸?ï¼??½å???¹è?¶å?¶é??ä¸?å·²å?¨é??æ¥å??°ç???è°??´å??产è?½ä?????
????2ï¼?交è?ï¼???·¯????è·???æ¸??£ï?ï¼?äº?ä¸????´å??项æ?°æ???¢å???¥½??ä¸?绩确å®??§å¼ºï¼??¿è?é«???çº??ç±»å?ºå??§ç??ºã??ç»?æµ?å¢???ä¸?è¡?ï¼?é«?????·¯????è·???æ¸??£è?产稳?¥æ?§å?¸æ?¾ï?ä¸?绩æ???¿å??ç¡???§è?é«??????¶è???å¹´ï?é«?????·¯????è·??¿å??ä¸?å¸????¸æ?´å??注é????èµ?人å???¥ï?å¤?å®¶å???¸å??å¸??¡ä????¥è???ï¼?大å???é«???红æ?ä¾?以å???¿è????¥å??å¹´é???红水平ï?ç»???èµ?人带?¥ç¡®å®??§ç??é«??¡æ?????¥ã??
????3ï¼?大å???¶è?ï¼?ç»?æµ?å¤???大è???????èµ???æ±?????ï¼??ºæ???¢æ??????ï¼??¿å??ä¼°å?¼ä??·å?ä¿??空é?´ã??2023年以?¥ï?ä¿¡è´·??æ±?è¿?ç»??ä¸???è¶?é¢???????ï¼??¨ç¨³å¢??¿å???©æ??èµ????¿ç??ºè?ä¸?ï¼???ç»?¿¡è´·ã??社è??ä»?????平稳å¢??¿ã??æ¤å?ï¼?ä½?为ä?绩稳å®?ä¸?é«???红ç???¿å??ï¼?å½????¶è?PBä¼°å?¼å?äº?2016年以??1.6ï¼???è¾?ä½?ä½?ç½??ä¿??空é?´è?大ã??
????ç»???è½??¨å¼ºåºþ:???¥æ?¤åº¦????离度ä¸?ä¸????????¤æ?????ä»??¾å??äº?认为TMT??½®è°??´æ???§ç?????¶å??å·²ç?è¿??»ï?å·²ç??°ä?ä»·æ?¼æ??¶é?´é??è¦?????»¥å¯»æ?¾ç????¹å??å·þ?¾§å¸?å±????¶æ???
???????????°å?ç»?æµ???????ä¸??¹ä¼°??è¡??????¥è?æ¼?ç»?ï¼?è¿???å¸??ºä¸»çº¿å?¨è?½å??å¼±ï?è½??¨å¼ºåºþ@?å§?????ï¼??????为æ?´é??è¦?????èµ?线索??ä¸??¹é?¢â??ä¸??¹ä¼°???¨è?å¡?ä¿????ï¼???æ¸?è¿??¥å?°å???¨è½®?¨ã?????????¶æ????þ???¹é??????°å?ç»?æµ???å°½ç?è°??´å·²è¾?为å????ï¼?ä½??°ä?è½?¸»çº¿ç??å½¢æ??ä»???è¦??¶é?´ã????æ¤ï??¨ä?ä¸?¸»çº¿å?¨è?½ç?¸å???å¼±ç???¶é?´ï??????ä¾????¿å?æ³??????¨ä?????
??????ç»??????¹å?³æ³¨ä¸¤ç±»ç»????¹å??ï¼?ä¸???023Q1???©æ¶¦é«?å¢?ï¼???ç»????åºþ=????å»¶ç»???¿å??ï¼?äº???023Q1???©æ¶¦å¢???ä¸?é«?ï¼?ä½???ç»????????åº??¨å??è½????¹å?????·ä?å¦?ä¸?ï¼?
????1??é«????????å»¶ç»??ç»????¹å??主è?????????µã????·¯??è·???æ²¹æ??å·¥ç???æ¶?费建????ä¸??¨è?å¤?????åº???é¤?é¥???ä¸????
????2?????åºþ=????åº??¨å??è½????¹å???????é»?????å·¥ç??ºæ??????¨è?å¤?????纸ã????©º?ºå?ºã??
????ä¸??????¸ï?ä½?ä¼°å?¼å?½å¤®ä¼?ä»???ä¿??空é??/STRONG>
????è¿???A?¡å??ºæ³¢?¨è?大ï????¨ä?è¯????°å?¨å??ä¸?è¿?ä¸?å¹´æ?°é?????åºþ=???¾å???½ï?å°¤å?¶æ?????????????°è¡¨?°ç??ä½?ä¼°å?¼å?½å¤®ä¼???è°?å¹?åºþA?大ã????ä»??为è???å¸??ºè??´å??????4??åº??¶æ????è°??´ç?¥ä???ï¼?1ï¼?4??åº??¶ç??è°??´ç???å½??¶ç??????èµ???å¤?æµ???æ¸??¡å????表ç?°å¼±äº?A?¡ï?æµ·å?é£??©å??ç´?对å??ºç??å½±å???´å¤§ï¼????¨è??´å???´å?ä½??°ä¸º????ï¼?2ï¼?ä½?ä¼°å?¼å?½å¤®ä¼???èµ????·å?©ä?ç»????¿å??表ç?°æ?©æ?£è?³é?¶è??µå??ç??´å?é¢??????¨å???½å¤®ä¼??ºç?°å????ç???ç´?å½±å??è¡?????????å¤?ï¼??????¡ç??è°??´å??大ä?å¸??ºæ³¢?¨ã??
????å±?????å¸?ï¼???ä»??ä¸?STRONG>è¿??????°å??è°?å·²è??¥è?å¤????²è?é¢???ï¼?å½???ç»?æµ??°æ???¶æ??§èµ°å¼±è?????å¦??¥æ?¿ç?åº?对å?å½?ï¼?对å??ç»???ºè¡¨?°ä??¨è?äº?è°¨æ??ï¼?å½???å¸??ºæ?ºä?ä»?大ä?é£??©ï??·ä??¥ç??ï¼?1ï¼?ç»?æµ???稳并??线æ?§ä¿®å¤?ï¼?ä¹????³æ³¨?¿ç???ç»??对ï?2ï¼?A?¡ä¼°?¼ä??·å??¸å???ï¼?å°¤å?¶æ???ä¼°å?¼å?½ä?ä»???ä¿??空é?´ã??ä¸?å½???A?¡æ?´ä?ä¼°å?¼æ°´å¹³ä?é«?ï¼?æ²?·±300????å¸?????10.3xï¼?ä»?å¤?äº????²ä¸ä½?ä½?ï¼?æ²?·±300?????¡æ??é£??©æº¢ä»?.5ï¼?ï¼?ä½?äº?2005å¹´è?³ä????²å???¼ï?3.8ï¼?ï¼???ä¸?0.8??????å·??表æ??å¸??ºæ??ç»?????²è?ï¼??´ä?ä¼°å?¼ä??·å??¸å?????
????è¡?ä¸?建è?:å¤???为主线ï?é£??¼æ?´å??è¡¡ã??建è???èµ????³æ³¨å¦?ä¸?ä¸??¡ä¸»çº¿ï?1ï¼??ºæ????¿®å¤?空é?´å??å¼¹æ?§å¤§ï¼?ä¸??¿ç?ç»§ç»??????æ³?æ¶?è´¹é???ï¼?å¦?é£???é¥???ç?ï¼?2ï¼??³æ³¨äº§ä??¾å??¨ã???°å?ç»?æµ?ç??¿ç??????????¿é???ï¼??????ç«??¶é????ç§???è½?¡¬ä»¶ï??°è?½æ?é¢???????è°¨æ??é¢???ä¹?????????ä¿??ï¼?3ï¼?????äº?ä¸?å¸þ??è·????¥ï?以å???½ä??¹é?©ç?主é??ºä???
????ä¸?¿¡å»ºæ??è¯??¸ï????¡æ?´å?ºï?ä½?ä½?寻æ??/STRONG>
????è¿???ç»?æµ?é¢?????ç»???温ï?4??PMI?°æ??µ°å¼±æ???¾ä?äº?å£è??????æ°´å¹³ï¼?CPI??PPI??æ¯?ç»§ç»?¢å?ï¼?å¸??ºç?å¾??¿ç????????????¨ä?ä½??¹å??ä¸???¾æ?ºä?ï¼?ä¸??¹ä¼°ä¸?AI????ä¼??´ï?ä½?ä»???¸????è¦?线索??è¡?ä¸????¹å?³æ³¨ï¼??µå?????»è?????°è?½æ?汽车??å®¶ç?µã??å·¥ä?æ¯??ºã????导ä?设å?ç?ï¼?主é??³æ³¨ï¼???å®??°å?ºç???
????ç»?æµ??°æ????å¼±ï?èµ????¢å?????å¼?
??????å¼±é???å¼±ç?°å???å·²æ??å®?ä»·ï?å¸??ºè?ä¸?æ¥ä?è·?空é?´ä?大ï????¶ç????å¤???è¿?ç¨????????¿ç?表æ??ä¹??³å?äº?????ä¸?ä¼???大è?模ç?æµ??ºæ??¿ç?ï¼?å¸??ºæ??å°??¨ç????ç»§ç»å¤?äº???å¼±å?¿ç?????¡è??´ç?¶æ????4??ä¸????å§?ï¼?å¸??ºå?äº?ç»?æµ?å¤?????é¢???è¶?äº??²è?ï¼?PMI???????°æ?????°äº§??????å¼±ï?人æ?å¸?è¿???èµ°è´¬??è¶??¿å????????è´§ä»·?¼ç??ä¸?è·?ä¹??¾ç¤º?ºä¸?½ç?æµ??ºæ???¢ç????å¼±ã????æ±?ä¸?è¶³ã??åº?å??¨æ??å°?????????¢ç??????????¶ï?å¸??ºå???èµ???ä»?ä¸?è¶³ï?èµ????¢å?äº?å?????å¼??¶æ?ï¼?å¸??ºè?????å°??´å??注é???²å¾¡?§ç??¥ã??æµ·å??¹é???????ä»???ç¡?????¨å?????¨æ?????þ>???ï¼??????³æ³¨ç¾??ºä???è°??¤ã??AIä¸?ä¸??¹ä¼°ä¸»çº¿è°??´ï?ä¸???ä»????ºä???AIæ¦?念ç???强度??大ç??ä¸?涨轮??è¿??¥ä?è°??´ä????¶æ?ï¼?ä½?æµ?½®???ï¼?AIå°??±ä¸»é¢?èµ°å???ºæ???¢é©±?¨ã??
?????³æ³¨ç»????§æ???ä¸??¿ç?é¢????¹å??
?????·å??¿ç?é¢??????ºæ???¢é?????????è¡???½¬???¹å??å°???ä¼?ï¼??³æ³¨???¹å???????¨å¤§ä»¶æ?è´¹å??å¦??°è?½æ?汽车??å®¶ç?µï???????¸»???§ã??ç»?????级ç??å·¥ä?æ¯??ºã????导ä?设å?ï¼?以å?????©é???¨æ?????¾å???????µå???¿å????å¾?é£??©å??好é???°ä?稳ã??????ç»?????ä¸?¼º?¿æ?¿å????ç»????¾ï?ç«?è¶³ä???º«?¨æ?????ºæ???¢å¼º?¹å??èµ?产æ????????ä¼?稳å????ï¼?ç§???ä¸???è¡??????ï¼?ä¸?ä¸?è½????þ@?ºæ???¢å¼º?¿æ?¹å????è¡?ä¸????¹å?³æ³¨ï¼??µå?????»è?????°è?½æ?汽车??å®¶ç?µã??å·¥ä?æ¯??ºã????导ä?设å?ç?ï¼?主é??³æ³¨ï¼???å®??°å?ºç???
????æ°???è¯??¸ï?æ¼??¿ç??å£è??
????TMTä¸???ä¸??¹ä¼°??è°??´ï????¥å??è§?????没æ??å¼±å??????????¨ä¸»è¦?宽å?ºæ???°å???ºç?°ä?è·?ï¼?å¸??ºä¸»è¦?驱å?¨å????TMTä¸???ä¸??¹ä¼°?????ºç?°è??´ï?ä»???å°??¨å??é«??¡æ???ä¸?ï¼?å¦??µå???????¨ä?ä¸????¤ç????纺ç???è£?以å???¢é??ï¼?ä¸??°è?½æ?å½?å¾?æ£æ?¶ç????äº?å®?ä¸?ï¼?å¦???????MTä¸?èµ?æº?+??èµ?产å?½ä?ï¼?A?¡å?¶å?????以æ?¥å°±å¼?å§?è§?é¡¶å???½ï?????ä¸???°±å·²ç??¹å¹³å¹´å??涨å?ï¼??°ä?å½?ä¸?å·²ç?å¤?äº?è´??¶ç?????¨å????èµ????´å?°æ???¨æ??交æ????è°?????????ä¸?è¡?????没æ????å¼±å?????ï¼????½å?äº????¥å??è§???3??以æ?¥ï?ä»?é»??²ç³»?????°è?¡ç¥¨å¸??ºå·²ç»?对æ?è¿?è¡?äº?????交æ?????¼å?ä¸?????????¨ç¤¾??+ä¸??½é?????°æ??????????¨ä?ï¼??¡ç¥¨å¸??ºä¸»é¢???èµ?????????ï¼??ºå?¸æ??è´§è?é¡¶ï?é»??²ç³»??å¼¹ã??
????ä¸??½æ²¡????è¡°é??é£??©â??ï¼?????åº??¨ç??æ¼??¿å??????¨ç?æµ?ç»???è½?????è¿?ç¨?ä¸??ä¼?ç»???å¼????½å·²ç»???æ³??????°ç?æµ??¨è?½å???¢ç??迹象ï¼?ï¼?1ï¼?4??ä¿¡è´·?°æ??»§ç»??äº?é¢???ï¼?è¿????³ç??è¿??»ä?ç»????ºå?¡æ?©å??¨é?¨ç??èµ?产è??ºè¡¨ä»??¨æ?¶ç¼©ï¼???è¿????½å??´ç¤¾??对ä?ç»?æµ??ºæ???¢ç??é¢?????ä¹?è¶??¥è?ä½??????²ä?社è??åº??¨ä??????äº?M1-M2??åº??¨é???äº?ä¼?ä¸????©å??????å¤?ä¸?è¶?è¿?5ä¸??åºþ?¶è??è¿?ä¸?次å?¨ç¤¾??åº??¨å?ºç?°ä???5ä¸??åºþ?æµ??¨æ??????èµ???ä¸??¹é?¢æ??å¾?ç¾??½ç??è¡°é????ä¸??½ç????å¼±å?????ï¼????þ?º§ä¸??¨æ??????èµ???????å¾?AI??产ä????½å??¥æ?å·²ç??ºç?°äº§ä¸?è¶??¿æ?¾ç??????°è?½æ???产ä???ä¸?述两ç§?ç¾?好æ??å¾???产ç????????å¸þ=?¥å¤±????å¾????????½æ????ºé?¶æ??§æ³¢?¨ç???¥æ????¨ä?è¿°æ??å¾?ä¸??½ç©ºä¸??å½?ä¸?主å?¨å???¡å?ºé?????¼ä¸ä½??°å·²ç»?è½??ï¼??¥è?1/5???ºé??å·²ç???ä¸??»å¹´ä»¥æ?¥ç?????¼æ?°ä???
????æµ·å?æ»?????ä¸?ä¸??ºæ?????许æ???ä¸?¼«?¿ç??08å¹´å??3å£åº¦??ä»????¨å?????ç¾??½ç?æµ????????°æ???¥ç??ï¼?å·¥ä???产æ???°å??????读æ?°ä??¨æ??ç»????½ï?ç»?æµ?è¿????è´¨æ?§è??¥è¡°??ï¼????³å??????å°±ä???æ¶?è´¹å???¶é??ä¸?PMI?½å?ºç?°å??å¼¹ï??¶è??å¸??ºå·²ç»?å¼?å§?交æ??ç¾????¨æ?¿ç?è½???ï¼????þ@?ºé???©ç????è´§æ??ç¤???ç¾????¨å?é¦?次é?????ï¼???ä»??为è?????¶å????äº??????¨é?¨æ??¨é??©ç????å¿§ï??¢å?ä»??¶å??¨è?é«?æ°´å¹³??????????å¤???å¼¹ç???¿æ??????é¢???ï¼?å¦???ç¾????¨ç»§ç»????©ç´§ç¼©ä»¥????????ï¼??£ä?????é£??©ç?????????½ä?å¸þ=?¥æ?´ä¸ºæ·±åº¦??è¡°é??ï¼????³æ???§æ?¡ã???½ç?¶é?¶è?ä¸???æµ??¨æ?§é??©æ????ç¼?è§£ï?ä½?ç¾??½å?ºå?¡è?çºþ>??é£??©å?´æ?¥è¸µ???³ï?ç¾???å¹´æ??主æ??ä¿¡ç?¨è?çºþ=????ï¼?CDSï¼?å·²ç???ä¸?2007年以?¥æ?°é?ï¼?5å¹´æ??ä¹?å·²ç???ä¸?2011年以?¥æ?°é????????ºå?¡ä???????????µï???论æ???þ=??ç»???é«??ºå?¡ä???ï¼?ä¿¡ç?¨è?çºþ=?????½å?ºä?ç»?å¢????½å???½ä?è¿?ä¸?æ¥å?²å?»æ??·²??å¼±ç???¶è?ç³»ç?ï¼?ç¾????¨å???½å?¨é????è¿??????½è?³ä?ä½??¶å°±è¦?è¢?¿«???????£ä?类似2008å¹´å??3å£åº¦???ºæ???????ï¼?å®?ä½?ç»?æµ????ºç?°å?质衰??ï¼?ä½????¶è?ç³»ç???????¼ç??宽æ?¾å·²ç»??°æ?¥ï?????å¼?å§???å¼¹ï?大å????????½ä?è¿??¥ä?è½??涨ã??ä½?ä¸?2008å¹´ç??ä¸???ä¹?å¤??¨ä?ï¼?大å???????产è?½å??åº?å??´ä¸ºç´§å?ï¼?å®?ä½?ç»?æµ?å¼¹æ?§è?å¼±ä????§æ?§è?好ï?ç§??¥é?¨é?¨è?产è??ºè¡¨?¥åº·ï¼?ï¼??¿å?è´??ºè?é«?ï¼?ç¾??½ç?æµ???æ£ç¡®è®¤è??¥ç»µ?¿ç????æ»??????¶æ????
????è½?????å¢??¿â????ç»´ï?以â??åº?线â????å¾?èµ?产å???¥ã???¨æ¼«?¿ç??ç?å¾??¶æ??ï¼???è§£â??åº?线æ??ç»´â???»å??¾é?§æ?§è?产æ??为ä???è¦?ä»»å?¡ã??é«???红è?产ä????????¡æ??????ï¼??´å??????ç§??½å??ï¼??¹å?????äº??????ä¸???è¨?ï¼????ç§??¾å?è¿???å¢??¿è??稳å?å½?ä¸????¥ç???½å??ï¼?å®??????¾å?弥足??è´µã??ä»??????¥ç????ä¸??¹ä¼°+红å?©â?????»è?å°???äº??????»è?ï¼?èµ?æº?ç±»ä?ä¸?ï¼??¤ç????æ²¹ï?ï¼?交é??è¿?è¾?ï¼?æ¸??£ã????·¯??æ²¹è???å¹²æ?£ï?ï¼??¶è?ï¼???大è?ï¼?ï¼???èµ?产å?½ä?ï¼??¼å?????µå????建ç?ï¼?ï¼????²æ?¿å????为å?äº?ä¸??½ç??å¤???é¢?????å½??°å??ºç?°ä?大å?è°??´ï?????ä¼?为æ???¥äº¤??æµ·å?æ»?????ä¸??´å¥½??å¸?å±?空é?´ã??æ¤å?ï¼??ºæ???è´¹å??°å?ºè?为强?²ç???ºæ??????¨è??ä¸??ç«??è´¹ã???¿å??æ¶?è´¹ï?????2021年强?¨æ??è¡???ç»???????å¸??ºç?¹å?ï¼?以â??å®?ç»?????为代表ç??èµ????¿å??ä»?????弹空?´ã??
??????西è??¸ï??????°æ??½¬å¼±ï?对æ?¥ä????¡å½±????ä½?ï¼?
????æµ·å?å¸??ºï?ç¾??½æ?è´¹è??对ç?æµ?è¡°é??????å¿§å??温ï?ä¸???ç¾???大æ???èµ°å¼±??ç¾??½é????å¦???ä¸?è¡?为ç????¨æ??ä¾?äº???????????空é?´ï?5??FOMC声æ??ä¹???示æ??½®?????¨æ????å·²ç?????ä½?å¹´å?????þB??????¨è?大ä?ç¡???§ï???为ç??½å?³å?¨å??å¸??ºä??·å??§æ?§ï?é²?å¨?å°?ä¹????³å¹´???????????½æ?§è?å°???å½???ç¾??½ç?æµ??°æ???????°æ???¾ç??è¡°é??????ï¼?ä¸?è¿?5??æ¶?è´¹è??ä¿¡å????°æ?¾ç¤ºå¸??ºå?ç»?æµ?è¡°é????å¿§æ??????温ã??å¾?????ï¼?ç¾????¨å??æ¢å????????ç»?æµ?è¡°é??????ï¼?ä¸???ç¾??????°å¤§æ¦???èµ°å¼±??
???????????????°æ?????é¢???ï¼??°è?ç»?æµ??????¨è?½ä?è¶³ï?å¸??ºâ??å¼±å?????é¢???è¿?ä¸?æ¥å¼º?????????¹é???4??CPI??PPI??ä½?äº?å¸??ºé???ï¼??????°æ???¹é???4??社è????ä¿¡è´·??大å?ä½?äº?é¢???ï¼?ä¸??¹é?¢æ???å£åº¦??天é???????¾é????½±??ï¼??þ???¹é?¢å?????æµ??¨è?½ç?????????å¼±ã??ç»???ä¸?ï¼?å±?æ°?ç«????¾è½¬å¼±ï?å±?æ°???´·??ä¸??¿è´·??次å?ºç?°è?å¢??¿ï??¶å?¥é?????å¼±å???¿å?°äº§å¸??ºè?ä½?è¿·æ??¸»è¦??????????²ç???¿ç?è½???ä¹???ï¼?å½???å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹ç??å¢??¿ä??·æ???????§ï?ä¸??¹é????¨ç?æµ?å¤????©æ???¶æ?ï¼?å°±ä?????ä»?å????为å?æ°??¶å?¥å???å¸þ=?¥æ?£è??ï¼??þ???¹é????¿å?°äº§å¸??ºç??ä½?迷使å¾?å±?æ°?èµ?产è??ºè¡¨ä»??·æ??ç»§ç»??缩ç????????
?????¿ç????????ï¼?å¸??ºå?©ç??ä½?ä½?è¿?è¡???¤§æ¦?????ä½???????ç»?æµ?å¼±å?????èµ?产è??ä¸?ï¼?å®?è§?æµ??¨æ?§ç»´????è£?ï¼?1ï¼?5??以æ?¥ç?æµ?å¤????????¾ç?ï¼?èµ?????æ±?ç«???温ï?R007??DR007?©ç??ä¸??¢å??次å???½è?³æ?¿ç??©ç??ä¸??¹ã??ç»?æµ?å¼±å?????ä½????????ä¸?ï¼?è´§å??¿ç?å°?ç»´æ???¸å?宽æ?¾ï??¶è??´æ??¨æ?§æ????ç»´æ????????è£?ï¼?2ï¼?è¿???å¤?å®¶è?¡ä»½è¡?è¡¥é??å®?å??©ç??ï¼?æ¤å???å®?å?款å?????¥å?款å?©ç?????¹ä???ä¹?å°?è¿??¥ä?è°?????èµ?产é??ç½?????ä¸?ï¼?å¸??ºå?©ç??ä½?ä½?è¿?è¡???¤§æ¦???ï¼?????????????å¸??ºå??¨å?ºé?´ã??å¾??æµ??¨æ?§æ?¹é???å½???A?¡æ??¨æ?§å?äº?紧平衡ç?¶æ??ï¼?å?????å¼???ç»´ä?ï¼?å¸??ºé??¼ç??è½??¨æ??ä»?å»¶ç»??
??????èµ?建è?ï¼???????å¸?å±?ï¼????þ@¤®?½ä???ä¸?å¸þ??è·??主线??4?????????????°æ???äº?é¢????¾ç¤ºå½???ç»?æµ??????¨è?½ä?强ï?å±?æ°?ä¿¡å???å¼±ã??ä»?è¿?ä¸??åºþ=?¥ç??ï¼??¿ç????????ä»?å????稳å??¿ã???©å?????¿ç?????ç»§ç»????ï¼?å¸??ºå?ç»?æµ????²è?é¢??????¾å??ï¼?A?¡é??©å??好æ????è¿??¥ä?稳ã??å±?????å¸?ï¼?ä½???????ç»?æµ?å¼±å?????èµ?产è??ä¸?ï¼?å¸??ºå?©ç??ä½?ä½?è¿?è¡???¤§æ¦???ï¼?????????å¸??ºå??¨å?ºé?´ï?å½???ä¼?ä¸????©æ?æ¥å?¥ä?è¡??¨æ??ï¼???ä»??å¯?023å¹´æ????ç±»è?产价?¼æ????ç§?????è§??¹ã????ä½?ä¸?ï¼?建è?????ä¼??´å????????å¸?å±???
????è¡?ä¸???ç½??ï¼????þ@¤®?½ä???ä¸?å¸þ??è·??主线??
?³é?????读ï? ?¸å??ç???/a>
- ???????¢æ?¨å?ºâ???¾ç??代ç???? AI+ä½?代ç??å¹³å?°é??æ±???????
- å®???èµ??????? ???¨å?¿å?????¢ç?µè??½è¡¥???¿è??¹å·¥ä½?
- ??大é??§è?½æ?ºç?ä¾?ç»? ?¨ç????¢çº½???¹å»ºè®¾æ?ºç?ä¸??
- äº???¹ä?å£åº¦?©æ¶¦????å¢?? ?¢æ?¿è?ä¸??ºæ???¢æ??ç»??¹å??
- ???½å???å¿??¨ç½²?¢æ????? ?¥å?汽车???¶é????????å¢?
- ??å·?å®??½æ??人æ?ºæ?¨å¹¿åº??¨æ?? 为ä?空ç?æµ???è¦?ç»???
- ä¸??ç«??ºå?å¸??ºé??æ±??´æ¶¨ ?½äº§?ºå?æµ·å?????
- ??为å??å¸???é£?æ¶²æ?ºå?·â??å·¥å??ä¸??¨è?½æ?°å?? ä¸?大å??ç´??¨å?¨å·¥??ä¸??¨è?½å??å±?
- ?¡ä»·??ç»?¤§æ¶ ?¸å?³å???¸æ???????³æ³¨