????????ï¼?顾å????ä¹?ï¼???èµ???ä¹°å?¥ä?ä¸?????ï¼???大æ??失为????è´¹ï?????大æ?¶ç??å¼¹æ?§è?é«?äº?????è´¹ï???ä»??è¿?论è?ï¼?å°?å½?????A?¡æ??述为??ç±»æ???????¶æ??ï¼??³ï???ä¸?空é?´æ????ï¼???æ½??¨å??ä¸?空é?´è?大ã??

????ä»?é£??©æº¢ä»·è?åºþ>??å½???A?¡â??ç±»æ???????¶æ??

????å½???ï¼?????023å¹???12?¥ï?æ²?·±300??ä¸?è¯????°ã??ä¸?å¾???é£??©æº¢ä»·ä¸º5.57ï¼???4.78ï¼???2.87ï¼?ï¼??????¾é?äº?è¿???0å¹´å????.85ï¼???2.58ï¼???1.41ï¼?ï¼??¥è?????1STDEV??6.18ï¼???5.05ï¼???3.25ï¼???

??????ä»???ä¸?ä¸????æµ?ç®?ï¼?è¿???0å¹´ï??¨æ?å½???é£??©æº¢ä»·æ?´é???ä»»ä?ä¸?ä¸?º¤???¥é???ºä¹°???¡ï?????6/12/24ä¸????·å?æ­£æ?¶ç??æ¦?????²ªæ·?00ï¼?69.4ï¼?/74.4ï¼?/83.4ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?è¯????°ï?75.5ï¼?/81.9ï¼?/90.1ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?å¾???ï¼?82.5ï¼?/87.8ï¼?/93.7ï¼?ï¼???

????è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ç??ï¼?è¿???0å¹´ï??¨æ?å½???é£??©æº¢ä»·æ?´é???ä»»ä?ä¸?ä¸?º¤???¥é???ºä¹°???¡ï?????6/12/24ä¸???ï¼?并ä??·å?????6ä¸???ç»?对æ?¶ç????大ä?5ï¼?/????12ä¸???ç»?对æ?¶ç????大ä?10ï¼?/????24ä¸???ç»?对æ?¶ç????大ä?20ï¼??¥æ?ç®?ï¼?æ¦?????²ªæ·?00ï¼?56.2ï¼?/48.7ï¼?/62.5ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?è¯????°ï?56.7ï¼?/47.9ï¼?/57.8ï¼?ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?å¾???ï¼?66.7ï¼?/64.7ï¼?/68.3ï¼?ï¼???

????综å??以ä??°æ???ç®?ï¼?å½???A?¡å?äº?é£??©æº¢ä»·ä??¿å?ºé?´ï?ä¹°å?¥å¹¶????A?¡å?·æ??è¾?好ç??????èµ???ç»???ï¼??????¾ç??ä¸??¿æ???§ä»·æ¯?ï¼??¹æ???·ä???????èµ?????ç»??????µæ?¥ç??ï¼?å½???A?¡ç±»ä¼¼ä????????????¶æ??ï¼??³å??ä¸?空é?´å?????½æ?§å??è¾?å°?ï¼???ä¸???空é?´å?????½æ?§å??è¾?大ã??

????ä»??ºæ???¢è?åºþ>??å½???A?¡â??ç±»æ???????¶æ??

?????ºæ???¢è?åºþ

?????¨ä?季度社è??è¶?é¢???å¢??¿å??ï¼?4??份社???¾è?????½ï?ä»??°æ???¥ç??ï¼?ä¸?季度社è??å¢???è¾¾å??0.5ï¼?ï¼???4ä¸???ç´????æ¯?å¢???è¾?1.3ï¼?ï¼?å±?æ°???´·è½??ï¼??¿è´·?°ä?ï¼?ä½???ä»?»ºè®??è¦?è¿????³æ³¨?????°æ????æ³¢å???

????ä¸??¹é???ä¸?季度社è???¾é????å­£è???§å???½æ?¶æ??????ï¼?

?????þ???¹é???å½???季度以ä?级å??¤¾??å¢???ä»??¶å?¨å????????ï¼?????常ä?导路å¾???¤¾??-ä¼?ä¸?????å±?æ°??¶å??å±?æ°?æ¶?è´¹ï?æ¯?ä¸????¹ä?导顺?©ä??þ@?¨ä?ä¼?ä¸???å±?æ°?ä¿¡å?强度ï¼?????ä¸?å¹´ä?ä¸???å±?æ°?ä¿¡å????°å?²å?»å??ï¼??¢å?????åºþ=?¾ç?¶è?ä½?äº??¿ç?驱å?¨ä??????°æ?????¢å???åºþ

????ä½??ºä?交æ??è§?åºþA??è¨?ï¼??¨ç¤¾??-ä¼?ä¸????©ä?导ç??è¿?ç¨?ä¸???å¼??½è???¹å?¨ä?ä¿¡å????????¢å?????åºþ@??对å??¿ç??ºå?°ï?该é?¶æ?大æ???å¤?äº?季度级å???è¡?空é?´è?为æ????ä½???ä¸?å®?ä¸?è¡?å¼¹æ?§ï?å¦?2012Q2??2015Q3??2019Q1??ä¸?ä¸??åºþ:??两个季度å¸??ºï?æ²?·±300ï¼?涨å?????¸º-6.85ï¼?/16.49ï¼?/-1.21ï¼???2.49ï¼?/0.47ï¼?/-1.49ï¼???

??????æ­¤ï?ä»??ºæ???¢ç??è§?åºþ=?¥ç??ï¼?å½???å¤??¨ç¤¾??-ä¼?ä¸????©ä?导é?¶æ?ï¼?æ¶?è´¹å????èµ?ä¿¡å?ä¸?足ï?ä½?????å¼???ç»?¿¡å¿??¢å???åºþ?»¥??ç»????§æ?¿ç?继续?ºå?°ç???¶æ?ï¼?å±?äº???ç±»æ?????¶æ??????

????ä»?æµ??¨æ?§è?åºþ>??å½???A?¡â??ç±»æ???????¶æ??

????æµ??¨æ?§è?åºþ

????å¹´å??以æ?¥ï???å¹´æ???½å?ºå?°æ???¶ç????ä»?é«???.934ï¼???ç»??è¡??³å???2.706ï¼???

????CPI??PPI??æ¯????¥è???å¹´æ??ä½??ºé?´ã??

?????ºå??¶ç??ç±»ç??è´?º§??ï¼?7?¥å¹´???¶ç????ä¸???°ä?å¹´å??3.01ï¼?ä¸????³å???2.42ï¼???

????ä¸?季度å±?æ°??°å?å­?æ¬?.9ä¸?亿ï???äº?2005å¹´æ??????°æ??»¥?¥ç????大å??季度?°å?å­?款é??ï¼?

??????ä»???建ç??????????ï¼?M2??æ¯?-ï¼?CPI+PPIï¼?/2??æ¯?-?¾å??ä½?å®?ä»·æ?¼æ???°å??æ¯?ï¼??¸å?äº??¡ç¥¨å¸??ºèµ°?¿ç????离达?°ä???å¹´æ?¥æ??大å?¼å?ºé?´ã??

??????å¹´å???¥å??è·????ä¸????????èµ?ä½?é¢?????è¦??¡ä??????????°å???ºé??ï¼??¡ç¥¨+æ··å??ï¼???IPO????èµ?????ä¸???计å??é¢?å¢???ä¸?1837亿ã??

????以ä??°æ?????³ç??A?¡å?ºå??æµ??¨æ?§å???ºå?å®?è§?æµ??¨æ?§ç??????离达?°ä?è¾?为æ???´ç???ºé?´ï??¢è??è¨?ä¹?ï¼?å½???A?¡æ??¨æ?§è?åºþ=?¥ç??ï¼????¥å?ºå??æµ??¨æ?§è?ä¸?æ­¥è??缩å???½æ?§è?ä½?ï¼????????¿ç???????ï¼?ä¾?å¦?è¿????¶è???å®?å­?款å?©ç??ä¸?????ä½?ç­????½ï?以å????ç»???导信å¿??¿ç????ºå?°ï?å®?è§?æµ??¨æ?§å??A?¡è??????导ç??è¿?ç¨?å°???å¿???

??????æ­¤ï??ºä?æµ??¨æ?§è?åºþ

?????»ç??¥ç??ï¼???ä»??é£??©æº¢ä»·ã???ºæ???¢å??æµ??¨æ?§ä?大è?åºþA?è¯?äº?å½???A?¡æ?å¤?äº???ç±»æ???????¶æ??ï¼?å½???ä¹°å???¡ç??ä¸?????????èµ???å¤?äº?è¾?为æ???¾ç??ä¼??¿å?ºé?´ï?ä»??¹å??????ç½???¥ç??ï¼?ä¼??????©ä?ä¼°å??é«???çº?ä¸??¹ä¼°/ä¸?å¸þ??è·?¸»çº¿è?è¡???ç½????ä»?»¶ç»??¨ä??¨å?¨æ?¥ã????è§???大象起è????ï¼?è¿?次å?ä½?æ¼?ç»?ï¼???ä¸????ºç??è§??¹ï?å½???ä½?ä¼°å?¼é??¼ä???????ç»?æµ???æµ??¨æ?§ç???ä¸??¹é?¢å??类似äº?2014å¹´ï?æ­¤å?ï¼?ç§????¡è???è´?©¿?¨å¹´ï¼?ä½?????ç§????¡æ?´å¤§çº§å?????????è¦?èµ????¢æ???é¦?å½¢æ????å¢???èµ?????æµ??¥ï???ä½?ä¼°å?¼æ?¿å???¨å???å¸þ@?¨æ???°ä?è¡???è§??²å??ï¼?ä»??¶è?为å?????ä¸?涨空?´ã??

????é£??©æ??示ï?ç¾????¨æ??ç»???????½å??ç»?æµ?å¢???ä½?äº?é¢?????