????主è???å®?/STRONG>

?????»ä??ºè?ï¼?ç»?æµ???常æ??????ï¼?è´§å???正常???????¸è?22Q4è´§æ?¿æ?¥å??ï¼?????¥å??对ä?ç»?æµ?å½¢å?¿ç??å®?è°??»ä??´ç§¯??ï¼?对ä?????ç½???????????????å½¢å?¿ï????ºâ??ç»?æµ?社ä??¨é?¢æ?¢å?常æ????è¿?è¡??????½ç?¶ä?ä»?强è??????¨è?½ä?强ç?????ï¼?ä½?å®?è°?æ¯?22Q4?´ç§¯??ï¼?ç»?æµ??½ç?¶æ²¡???°æ?常å???ï¼?ä½?常æ????è¿?è¡????äº???äº?å®?ï¼??¸å???ï¼???ä¸?å¹´ç???????´æ?´ä????¾ç??è´§å??¿ç?ï¼?å½???è½?????正常????大å?å·²å?¨æ??å¼?ï¼??¸è?äº?22Q4ï¼?????¥å?????»â????大å?è§??¿ç?è°??§å??åºþ9??ï¼??°å?强è????»é????åºþ:????å¥?平稳??ï¼??½ç?¶å???»â??????ä¸?????大水æ¼???????ï¼?ä½?è´§å??¿ç??????¨æ?¾ç???¶å??ä¼?å¦?此强è°?ï¼??²æ?å¸??ºé???线æ?§å??????ä¸??§å?ºè??¶æ????è¿???强è?æ­¤å??¼ã????ç»?´§å¸??¿ç?????表æ?????¶â???????³å¤§äº????¾â???????¨å?·ä??¹å???????¹é???ä½?为ä?ç»???æ±?侧ç???å·¥å?·ï?????对ä?ä¾?ç»?侧é????´å?³æ³¨ï¼????????ç»??¢å??????æ±????????¨è?½ä?足ç???°ç?¶ï?ä¹?????ç»?????è´§å??¿ç?为æ?°ä?å¤???å¢????©å????¹å????

????ç»????§è´§å¸?å·¥å?·ä?季度?????¾çº¦3700亿ï?ä»?ä½?4300亿æ??¨æ?§å????¾ä»¥ç¨³ä?ç»????¸è?äº?22Q4ï¼?ç»????§è´§å¸??¿ç?å·¥å?·æ?°å?强è???ä¿?????è´·æ???è´´ç?°å·¥?·ç??稳å??§ï?è¿??¨å¥½å®??½æ???????¶æ??§å·¥?·â??ï¼??½ç?¶æ??ä¸?项工?·å?°æ??ï¼?ä½??°å??¿ä?纾å?°ä?项å??è´·æ???ç§?èµ?ä½??¿è´·æ¬¾æ????计å??ç­?ï¼????¶å»¶ç»???½ç¢³????????å·¥å?·å???????¤ç???æ´?é«????©ç?¨ä?项å??è´·æ?ï¼?????ä¸?季度ç»????§è´§å¸?å·¥å?·å??????754亿ï?????é¢?åºþ@??ä»???4292亿å??????¾ã??

????ä»?21Q3以æ?¥æ?¥å??表æ??????ï¼???å½???å­?款å?©ç??ä¸?è°?æ¦???è¿?ä¸?æ­¥é??ä½???äº?å®???21Q3?¥å???¨å?©ç???¹é?¢ç??表述ä¸??ä»?强è???继续???¾è´·æ¬¾å??ºæ?¥ä»·?©ç???¹é?©æ???½â??ï¼?????ç¡?????å­?款å?©ç??ï¼?ä½?ä¼´é???¶è???·®??????大ï?21Q4?¥å??ä¸??°å?强è???稳å??¶è?è´??ºæ??????ï¼???æ­?022å¹? ??å­?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶å»ºç«?ï¼?22Q1?¥å??ä¹?å¼?å§?强è??????¥å?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶é??è¦?ä½????????稳å??¶è?è´??ºæ??????ï¼?2022å¹???主è???ä¸??¶è?ä¹?ä¸?è°?å­?款å?©ç??ï¼??¶è?è´??ºç?????????ç¼???ï¼???æ­?2Q4?¥å?????»â??????稳å??¶è?è´??ºæ??????ï¼???????¥å???¨å?©ç??å±??¢ç??表述å°?å­?款å?©ç???¨å??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å??ç½????2Q4?????¥å?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ç????è¦?ä½???????¥è´·æ¬¾å??ºæ?¥ä»·?©ç???¹é?©æ???½å????导ä??¨â??ï¼?è½???为æ???????ç»????¥è´·æ¬¾å??ºæ?¥ä»·?©ç???¹é?©æ???½ï????¥å?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ç????è¦?ä½??¨â????ç»???22Q3?³ä????¼èµ°é«???10Y?½å?ºå?©ç??ï¼????»ä???å¹³ç??1Y LPRï¼?????ä¹?没æ??å­?款å?©ç??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è°?空é??/STRONG>??

?????????????¡å?©ç??æ°´å¹³???¨ä?è¾¾ä?ä¹?ä¿¡å?·ï????¨é?ºå??????????忧â??????ä¸???ä¸?????»¥????为ä?ä¸??¨å???¥å?????¶ä?è¾¾ç??主æ?¨å?????1ï¼???对å?©ç???¨å?è§?ä¸???å®?ä½?ï¼?å¤???¨å?¶ä¸­????äº??©ç????ç»???é«?????ç»???ä½?对ç?æµ?????å®?STRONG>ï¼???ç¡?¡¨ç¤ºâ??è¶?é«???è¶?ä½??©ç???¿ç??¾ä»¥?¿æ????ç»?????2ï¼??????©ç?????¨å???²ç??è¿?ç¨?ä¸??å¤??ç»??ºä??¿ç??©ç????????ï¼???STRONG>??????å½???ç»?æµ?????å½¢å?¿å?ºç?ä¸?ï¼??????²å?¨æ?????¨ç?????ºå????å¹³å???¼æ?¶æ??ï¼???ä½??¿ç??©ç????æ³¢å?¨â????3ï¼?ç»??ºä?å½????©ç??æ°´å¹³??å®?ä½?ï¼???å®???è´·æ??©ç?????¾é??ä½???ï¼?ä¹?表示???°å???¾è´·æ¬¾å????å¹³å???©ç??ä¸ 4.34ï¼?ï¼??¶ä¸­ä¼?ä¸?è´·æ?????å¹³å???©ç??ä¸ 3.95ï¼?ï¼???å¤?äº????²ä?ä½????????¶å?款å?©ç??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è°?æ¦?????ä½?å®???ä¸?ä¹????³ç??è´·æ??©ç??ä¸?è°?空é?´å??å°???ç»?????ä¸???ä¸?????ä¸??¹é?¢è?è¿°ï???ä»???»¥å¾??°ä?ä¸???æ­¥ç??ç»?论ï??³å??????忧ã??æ­¤å??å¤??å·²æ???ºé?å¥??¿è´·?©ç???ºå?¶æ?????????¨æ???µæ´»è°??´â??ï¼?å¤??强è?è¦????¢ç??·ã????管ç???????¥å??ç»?Y LPR??å¹³ï???ä»?ä¸???å¹´å?å§?è¶?90??å¸?å°???æ­¥é??¸´é¦?å¥??¿è´·?©ç??ä¸?è°?10-40bp??客è???????

?????¶ä????¹ï?Q2???????????????ä½?ï¼??³æ³¨Q3ä¸??§é????25bp??è¶?é¢??¨è??æ­£å??æµ???è´??ä½?æµ???æ¶?è´¹è?模ä?大ï?????????ä¸???缩é??©å??????è¿?????忧ã??

????é£??©æ??示ï?ç»????§è´§å¸?å·¥å?·æ???¾é??åºþ=???é¢?????

????以ä?为æ???

????1.?»ä??ºè?ï¼?ç»?æµ???常æ??????ï¼?è´§å???正常????

?????¸è?22Q4è´§æ?¿æ?¥å??ï¼?????¥å??对ä?ç»?æµ?å½¢å?¿ç??å®?è°??»ä??´ç§¯??ï¼????ºâ??ç»?æµ?社ä??¨é?¢æ?¢å?常æ????è¿?è¡??????¨æ?»ä?å®?è°??¹é???对ä?????ç½???????????????å½¢å?¿ï??¥å??表æ????2Q4???????????²æ?§è??¥æ?°ç???¶æ???è½???为æ????????½ç?æµ?社ä??¨é?¢æ?¢å?常æ????è¿?è¡???ï¼??¸å???ï¼?çª??ºæ???ºâ????æ±??¶ç¼©??ä¾?ç»??²å?»ã??é¢???è½?¼±ä¸???????å¾??°ç?解ï?ç»?æµ?å¢??¿å¥½äº?é¢???ï¼?å¸??ºé??æ±???æ­¥æ?¢å???ï¼??½ç?¶ä?ä»?强è??????¨è?½ä?强ç?????ï¼?ä½??»ä?å®?è°?æ¯?22Q4???¾æ?´ç§¯????ç»?æµ??½ç?¶æ²¡???°æ?常å???ï¼?ä½?常æ????è¿?è¡????äº???äº?å®???

?????¸å???ï¼???ä¸?å¹´ç???????´æ?´ä????¾ç??è´§å??¿ç?ï¼?å½???è½?????正常??????大å?å·²å?¨æ??å¼?ï¼???ç»?´§å¸??¿ç???????表æ?????¶â???????³å¤§äº????¾â?????¸è?äº?22Q4è´§æ?¿æ?¥å??ï¼??¨å??ç»?´§å¸??¿ç?å±????¨å??ï¼?????¥å?????»â????大å?è§??¿ç?è°??§å??åºþ9??ï¼?ä¸??¨æ?»ä??????¹é?????2Q4??稳å?¥ç??è´§å??¿ç?è¦?ç²¾å?????????¹ä¸º??稳å?¥ç??è´§å??¿ç?è¦?ç²¾å??????ï¼??»é????åºþ

???????¨å?·ä??¹å???????¹é???ä½?为ä?ç»???æ±?侧ç???å·¥å?·ï?????对ä?ä¾?ç»?侧é????´ä¸º?³æ³¨ï¼????????ç»??¢å??????æ±????????¨è?½ä?足ç???°ç?¶ï?è¿?ä¹?????ç»?????è´§å??¿ç?为æ?°ä?å¤???å¢????©å????¹å????ä¸??¿æ²»å±?ä¼?è®??è°?类似ï¼?????¥å???¨å?·ä??¿ç??¹å??ä¸???2Q4?´å¼ºè°???æ±?ï¼?????å®??½æ?©å¤§???????¥å??æ·±å??ä¾?ç»?侧ç????§æ?¹é?©æ???ºç?????ï¼?è½???为ç?????´å?³æ³¨ä¾?ç»?ï¼??¨ç»§ç»????ºâ????å®??½æ?©å¤§???????¥å??æ·±å??ä¾?ç»?侧ç????§æ?¹é?©æ???ºç??????????¶ï??°å?强è????????¥æ?¿ç???????æ¿???ç»??¥ä¸»ä½?æ´»å??ç»???èµ·æ?¥â??????è¿?????ï¼?ä¹?ä¸?????ç»?æµ?ä¾?ç»?侧æ?¢å??????æ±????°ç?¶ç?´æ?¥ç?¸å?³ï?ä¸?季度åº?å­?ä»???ç´????GDPå¢???1.4ä¸??¾å???¹ï?å¾??主ä?ä¿¡å?ä¸?足ã??ä¸?æ­¤å???¶ï?ä¹????ºâ???³æ³¨?©ä»·èµ°å?¿è¾¹??????ï¼?å¼?导稳å®?社ä?é¢???ï¼???????建粮é£????½æ?ç­?ä¿?ä¾?稳价ä½??¶æ?ºå?¶ï?ä¿????©ä»·æ°´å¹³?ºæ??¨³å®?????对ä?稳ç?©ä»·??表æ???´å???·ä?ï¼??´å???³æ³¨??è¿?ä¾?ç»???å¢???稳å??©ä»·ï¼??¿å??ä¼?ç»?è´§å??¿ç?ä»????þB??æ±??¥è??§é???????????

????

????2.ä»?ä½?4300亿ç????§è´§å¸?å·¥å?·æ???¾æ??¨æ?§ç¨³ä¾?ç»?

????ç»????§è´§å¸??¿ç?å·¥å?·æ?°å?强è???ä¿?????è´·æ???è´´ç?°å·¥?·ç??稳å??§â??ï¼?????ä»?ç»?ä½?è¿?4300亿å??è´·æ?é¢?åºþ=??å¾????¾ï??¨å½¢??æµ??¨æ?§ç?????¶ç¨³å®?ä¾?ç»?侧ã???¸è?22Q4?¥å??ï¼?????¥å??延续强è?ç»????§è´§å¸??¿ç?å·¥å?·â?????þB???¹ã????????åºþ:????è¿???????ï¼?ä½??°å?强è???ä¿?????è´·æ???è´´ç?°å·¥?·ç??稳å??§ï?è¿??¨å¥½å®??½æ???????¶æ??§å·¥?·â??ï¼??·ä??¹å??ä¸?ä¹???2Q4??å¼?导é?????ºæ????强å???????????ç§??????°ã??绿è?²å??å±?ç­?é¢????????????¡ã????è½???为æ?????为æ??????????ç§??????°ã??绿è?²å??å±?ç­????¹é???????å¼±ç??????ä¾??????????????¨æ?è¿?ç¨?ä¸???½ç?¶ç??????°å??è´·æ???设å??´æ?°æ?¹é??ä¸?项å??è´·æ???ä¿?交楼贷æ?????计å??ç­?å·¥å?·å??½æ??å·²ä?3 ???????ï¼?ä½??°å??¿ä?纾å?°ä?项å??è´·æ???ç§?èµ?ä½??¿è´·æ¬¾æ????计å??ç­?ï¼????¶å»¶ç»???½ç¢³????????å·¥å?·å???????¤ç???æ´?é«????©ç?¨ä?项å??è´·æ?ï¼?????ä¸?季度ç»????§è´§å¸?å·¥å?·å??????754亿ï?????é¢?åºþ@??ä»???4292亿å??????¾ã??

????

????3.å­?款å?©ç???????°ä?è½??è°?æ¦???è¿?ä¸?æ­¥é??ä½?

????ä»?21Q4以æ?¥è´§?¿æ?¥å???³ä?å­?款å?©ç????表æ??????ï¼???å¾?????¥å??继续??æ·¡å????å­?款å?©ç????ç»???´ã??2021å¹´ä?季度货å??¿ç??§è??¥å???¨å?©ç???¹é?¢ç??表述ä¸??ä»?强è???继续???¾è´·æ¬¾å??ºæ?¥ä»·?©ç???¹é?©æ???½â??ï¼?????ç¡?????å­?款å?©ç??ï¼?ä½?ä¼´é???¶è???·®??????大ï?21Q4?¥å??ä¸??°å?强è???稳å??¶è?è´??ºæ??????ï¼???æ­?022å¹? ??人æ??¶è???导å?©ç??????ºå?¶å»ºç«?äº?å­?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ï?22Q1?¥å??ä¹?å¼?å§?强è??????¥å?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶é??è¦?ä½????????稳å??¶è?è´??ºæ??????ï¼?2022å¹????¨å??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ä?ï¼?主è???ä¸??¶è?ä¹?ä¸?è°?å­?款å?©ç??ï¼??¶è?è´??ºç?????????ç¼???ï¼???æ­?2Q4?¥å???½ç?¶ä??¨å¼ºè°?å­?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ï?ä½????»â??????稳å??¶è?è´??ºæ??????ï¼?????¥å??ä¹????ºä?å¹???以æ?¥é?¨å??ä¸??è¡?å­?款å?©ç??ä¸?è°?ä¹?为â???»å¹´????´ç???¶è?ä¹?è¿?è¡?äº?è¡¥å??ä¸?è°???????æ­¤ï?????¥å???¨å?©ç??å±??¢ç??表述å°?å­?款å?©ç???¨å??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å??ç½????2Q4?????¥å?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ç????è¦?ä½???????¥è´·æ¬¾å??ºæ?¥ä»·?©ç???¹é?©æ???½å????导ä??¨â??è½???为æ???????ç»????¥è´·æ¬¾å??ºæ?¥ä»·?©ç???¹é?©æ???½ï????¥å?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ç????è¦?ä½??¨â????

????ç»?????ä»?????¥å????å­?款å?©ç??ä¸?è°??°ä?è½???å¼?å§?ï¼???ï¼?å­?款å?©ç???????°ä?è½??è°???æ¦???è¿?ä¸?æ­¥é??ä½???2022å¹???ï¼?å¤????导å?©ç??????ºå?¶å»ºç«?äº?å­?款å?©ç??å¸??ºå??è°??´æ?ºå?¶ï?ä»?0 å¹´æ???½å?ºæ?¶ç??????ä»? å¹´æ??LPR ?ºå??ï¼?????è°??´å?款å?©ç??æ°´å¹³??2022å¹?-9??10å¹´æ???½å?ºå?©ç??ä¸?è°?14bpï¼?1Y LPRä¸?è°?5bpï¼?ä¹??¸å?è§þ@??2022å¹????¨å???¨å?½æ?§é?¶è?ä¸?è°?å­?款å?©ç??ï¼?å¦?ä¸?å¹´æ??å®???å­?款å?©ç??ä¸?è°?10BP????ä»?2022å¹????³ä?ï¼?1å¹´æ??LPR???µä????10å¹´æ???½å?ºæ?¶ç????èµ°é?3.9BPï¼?并æ???ä¸?æ­¥ä?è¡???å°?ä¸??·å??¨é???è°????????¡ä»¶??

????

????4.?????????¡å?©ç??æ°´å¹³???¨ä?è¾¾ä?ä¹?ä¿¡å?·ï?

??????ä¸???ä¸?????»¥????为ä?ä¸??¨å???¥å?????¶ä?è¾¾ç??主æ?¨å????????å¤??ä¸???ä¸??????????¡å?©ç??æ°´å¹³??è¡???è¾?å­þ=???ä¸?ä¸???è¯?è¾?å¤?ï¼?ç²???èµ·æ?¥ä?达信????????ä½?纵è??¨æ??ï¼???ç«???容å??»¥????ä¸?ä¸??ä¸?ä¸??¨å??ï¼?ç¬???¨å????两æ?????©ç???¨å?è§?ç»?æµ?ä¸???å®?ä½????ºå??§ç??????ï¼?ç¬???¨å???????2018年以?¥æ???½è´§å¸??¿ç??©ç??è°??´ä??¨ç???¿ç??©ç??è°??´ç??å¤???ï¼?ç¬???¨å?????þ@?ä¸?ï¼?????äº?å½?????è´·æ??©ç??æ°´å¹³??å¤?ä½?ç½???????ä¸?ä¸??¨å??????å¤??ä¼?达主?¨å??»¥???°è?ä¸??¨å????????ä¸?ä¸??¤æ????

????ç¬???¨å??????对å?©ç???¨å?è§?ä¸???å®?ä½?ï¼?å¤???¨å?¶ä¸­????äº??©ç????ç»???é«?????ç»???ä½?对ç?æµ?????害ï???ç¡?¡¨ç¤ºâ??è¶?é«???è¶?ä½??©ç???¿ç??¾ä»¥?¿æ????ç»???????ä¸???ä¸???ç¬??段ä??¨è?è¿°å?©ç??对å?è§?ç»?æµ???å½±å??ï¼??¶ä¸­????两个?¨å???¥å???????ºï?å¤??表示???¥å?©ç????ç»???é«?ï¼?ä¼?导è?´ç¤¾ä¼???èµ??????ä¼?ï¼?å½¢æ??ä¾?ç»?缺å?£å????æ±???缩ï?ä¸??©ä?ç»?æµ???å±??????þ@?ï¼???对å?©ç????ç»???ä½???å½±å??ï¼?å¤??认为???¥å?©ç???¿æ??è¿?ä½?ï¼???ä¼?å¸þ=?¥äº§?½è??©ã????è´§è?¨è????èµ?产价?¼æ³¡æ²???èµ???空转ç­????????为æ?ï¼?å¤????ç¡?¡¨ç¤ºâ??è¶?é«???è¶?ä½??©ç???¿ç??¾ä»¥?¿æ????ç»??å¿??¶å?²å?»ç?æµ?????稳å?ï¼?è¿??¨å???²ä????°å?ä¸??½æ??ä¾?è¯?????

????ç¬???¨å???¨å?????©ç?????¨å???²ç??è¿?ç¨?ä¸??å¤??ç»??ºä??¿ç??©ç????????ï¼??³â??????å½???ç»?æµ?????å½¢å?¿å?ºç?ä¸?ï¼??????²å?¨æ?????¨ç?????ºå????å¹³å???¼æ?¶æ??ï¼???ä½??¿ç??©ç????æ³¢å?¨â????å¤??å°??¶å?©ç??è°??´å½¢å®¹ä¸º??缩å????????ï¼??¶æ??º«????????¢å????¥ç?æµ???ä¸?ç¡???§æ?¶ï??©ç????è°??´å?åºþA??´å?ï¼?以é?²æ??©ç??大å????¨å??????¥ç??ä¸?ç¡???§ã???þ@?ï¼?å¤????对å?·ä????¿ç??©ç??è°??´æ?¶ï?ä¹?ç»??ºä??¶å????ï¼??³â??????å½???ç»?æµ?????å½¢å?¿å?ºç?ä¸?ï¼??????²å?¨æ?????¨ç?????ºå????å¹³å???¼æ?¶æ??ï¼???ä½??¿ç??©ç????æ³¢å?¨â????

????ç¬???¨å??ç»??ºä?å½????©ç??æ°´å¹³??å®?ä½?ï¼???å®???è´·æ??©ç?????¾é??ä½?????ç¬???¨å??å¤??ç»??ºä?è¿????©ç????èµ°å?¿å??æ°´å¹³ï¼??¶è¡¨ç¤ºâ??è¿?å¹´æ?¥ï??¨å??ºå?©ç???´ä?ä¸?è¡???å¸þ@?¨ä?ï¼?å®???è´·æ??©ç?????¾é??ä½????????¶ï?ä¹?表示??2023 å¹ 3 ??ï¼??°å???¾è´·æ¬¾å????å¹³å???©ç??ä¸ 4.34ï¼?ï¼??¶ä¸­ä¼?ä¸?è´·æ?????å¹³å???©ç??ä¸ 3.95ï¼?ï¼???å¤?äº????²ä?ä½?????

????ç»?????ä¸???ä¸?????ä¸??¹é?¢è?è¿°ï???ä»???»¥å¾??°ä?ä¸???æ­¥ç??ç»?论ï??³å??????忧ã??ä¸??????å·²ç?æ¯?è¾?ä½????©ç??æ°´å¹³ï¼????½ä??·å?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è¡????ºç?????为央è¡?å·²ç??¨æ??示è?ä½??©ç?????½é??????é£??©ã??äº?????????????²å?¨æ?????¨ç?????ºå????å¹³å???¼æ?¶æ????ï¼??????½å????©ç??æ°´å¹³å¤?äº?ä¸?ä¸??ä½???ä½?ç½?????¥ç??ä¸?è¡?é£??©æ???´é???ï¼??????´ä???????ä»??¨å????å°±æ??ç»???示å??????忧ï?é¦?å¥??¿è´·?©ç???ºå?¶æ?????????¨æ???µæ´»è°??´â??ï¼?ä¹???å¤?????ºè????¢ç??·ã????管ç???????¥å??ç»?Y LPR??å¹³ï???ä¸???å¹´å?å§?è¶?90??å¸?å°???æ­¥é??¸´é¦?å¥??¿è´·?©ç??ä¸?è°?10-40bp??客è???????

????5.è¶?é¢??¨è??æ­£å??æµ???è´??ä½?æµ???æ¶?è´¹è?模ä?å¤?/STRONG>

??????ä¸???2????????è¿?M2??å­?款å??¿è?å¿??????ï¼?å¤??å°??¶å????å®?è§?????ä¸??¶è???å±?æ°?ä¼?ä¸?ä¸?ä¸??è§???ä¸????è§?è§?è§?ï¼?å¤??认为???????°æ?????äº?ç»?æµ??°æ???äº?????ä¸??¶è?è§?è§?ï¼?ä¸?季度贷æ???ä¸?????ï¼?è´·æ?????å­?款ï?ä¸????å±?æ°???ä¼?ä¸?è§?è§?ï¼?å±?æ°???????è´¢æ??ç»???æµ?表å??ï¼??¨å??å±?æ°?å­?款表?°ï?并æ????2??æ¯??¨ä?季度??ä¸?è¡???

????4?????°ç????????»¥???°ï?????å­?款å?©ç????ä¸?è°?ï¼?以å??ç»?æµ?å¢??¿é?????ä¼?稳ï?å±?æ°?å­?款å??åºþ=?????è´??M2é¢?计å?è¿??¥ä?è¡???????å­?款å?©ç??ä¸?è°?主è?ç¼?解å??ä¸??¶è?????·®????ï¼?ä½????¶ä?令å?æ°??????¶è?å­?款ç???¶ç??ä¸???ï¼??¾å??äº????°æ?????è´ ¬??4??M2??æ¯?12.4ï¼?ï¼?ä½?äº?å¸??ºé???ï¼?12.6ï¼?ï¼?ï¼??¸å??¨ä???????ç»?´¡????å±?æ°?è´·æ?13ä¸???以æ?¥é?次转è´???4??å±?æ°?å­?款å??å°?1.2ä¸?亿ï???æ¯???å°?5000亿ï?ç»???äº?è¿?ç»?3ä¸???å¤?å¢??¶æ?ï¼?ä¹???ä¸?2??æ¯???åºþ@???½ç??主è??¥æ?ï¼???ç´?2??æ¯?0.2ä¸??¾å???¹ã??ä½?å±?æ°?å­?款ä??????þ@?»å??æ¶?è´¹ä?å­??¨ç??????¹æ??¤®è¡????²ï?ä¸?季度å±?æ°?1.4ä¸?亿è?管è?????è¡????ä¸?季度å±?æ°?å­?款å?å¢???ä¸???????ä»?????é¢?计ï?4??å±?æ°?å­?款ç????å°??´å???½å?»å??????¡¨å¤?èµ?产ï?????å¸??ºæ???¼ç??æ¶?è´¹é?????ï¼?è¯þA???ç»?æµ?ä¸??¿ç??©ç??????N????å¤???????4???????°æ????è¯???ï¼?2023.05.11ï¼?ï¼?

????

??????ä¸???3??å¤??????ç¡?è°·é?¶è????ï¼????ºæ???½å??°é?¶è?å¤?äº?å®??¨è¾¹????ï¼?????é£??©å???§ã??å¤??认为?????½é?????ºæ??对ç?è°·é?¶è?é£??©æ???£å?ï¼?ç¡?è°·é?¶è??´äº§å¯¹æ???½é????å¸??ºå½±?????§ã????????对è?ä¸?ç±»å???????ï¼?å¤??认为??????ä¸??»è?产中??æ¯?è¶?è¿? 90ï¼????¶è?ä¸??»ä?稳å?ï¼?ç»?大å??°é?¶è?ä¸??????ºæ??å¤?äº?å®??¨è¾¹????ï¼??¶è?ä¸??»è?产中??æ¯?çºþ??????24 家大???¶è?ä¸??´ä???è¯?级ä???????å®???ä¸????ºæ???½å??ä¸??¶è?ä¸?ä¸?ä¼?ä¸?æ¼?å¦?ç¡?è°·é?¶è?????é£??©ã??

????ä½??¼å??³æ³¨???????ä¸???3??ä¸??¨æ???ºä???ä¸??¹é?¢ç????¤ºï¼??¶ä¸­ä¸??¨æ???°â??ä¸???????ºæ??????管å???è§???ï¼????¥å?ä¸???¶è?????管å???½è?ä¸?æ­¥å??强ã??å¤??认为??ä¸???????ºæ?????¿å???½å???´å¼±????å¼±æ?§æ?´æ???¾ï????·æ?????½å?¨é??©ç§¯ç´???å¸??ºæ????ä¸??¿æ??ç³»ç??§é??©â???????¨è?è½??款å?©ç??è°??´å??ï¼??¨å??ä¸???¶è?????å¼±æ?§å???½ä????§ï?????管é?¨é?¨å???½å??´å???³æ³¨ä¸???¶è???é£??©ï??²æ?é£??©å?ºç?°ä?????åº???

????6. Q2???????????????ä½?ï¼??³æ³¨Q3ä¸??§é????

?????¨è´§å¸??¿ç??»ä?è½?????正常?????????ï¼?äº?季度???????????????ä½?ï¼?ä½?ä¸???å¹?2??æ¯?ä¸?è¡?????è¾?大ï??³æ³¨Q3ä¸??§é????25bp??2022å¹?2??以æ?¥ï??½ç?¶å¤®è¡?两æ???????0bpï¼?ä½?MLFå¢????????¾è?7000亿ï?ä½?为æ?????é«????ºç?è´§å????¾å·¥?·ï?ä¹?令å??ä¸??¶è?è´??ºç??????????åºþ=?¾æ???å°¤å?¶æ???¨å??ç»??款å?©ç??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è°?æ¦?????ä½????????????æ­¤ï???ç»??¥è?稳å???ä¸??¶è?è´??ºç??????ä¸??§é????ä»???????项ï?ä¸??»å¹´????è¶??¨ç??è¿?é«?导è?´ä?å¹?2??æ¯?ä¸?è¡?????è¾?大ï?ç»´æ??ç»´æ??7????8????次é????25BP???¤æ????????¥å??ç»??????ï¼?å¹´å?M2??æ¯??????½è??ï¼???è¿?ï¼??¥é????ï¼?å¹´å?M2??æ¯?????稳å?äº?8ï¼?-9ï¼????¸å?????æ°´å¹³??

????

????7.????????ä¸???缩é??©å??????è¿?????å¿?/STRONG>

????ä¸???????ç¡?¼ºè°???å½??????½ç?æµ?没æ???ºç?°é??缩â??ï¼??¤ä?延续??????æ±???弱以å¤?ï¼??´æ??ç¡????ºä?ç»???足ç?????©æ???????¥å??ä¸??????????½é????æ°´å¹³å¤?äº?温å???ºé?´ã????ç¡?????PI?¶æ??§ä?è¡?ä¸?å®?è¿???解è?ï¼?强è????»ç????ï¼??¥ç?æµ?ä¿???正常å¢??¿æ???¿ï?CPI?¶æ??§å???½ç??å½±å??ä¸?å®?夸大???????¶æ???ºâ???????¹æ??????³ä?å®?ä½?ç»?æµ?ä¾??????»ä?平衡???µâ??ï¼???½®CPI??ä½??¤ä???æ±??¢å?????»¥å¤?ï¼?é¦?è¦?强è???ä¾?ç»??½å??è¾?强â??ï¼???è¦??½æ?èµ?æº?å¢??¨ä?产ç??ç§????????????CPIä½?ä½????´ä¸»è¦?????ï¼?æ­¤å??ºæ?°æ??åº?ä¹?????è´¡ç????

????å±?????ç»?????ï¼?å¤????åºþ>?¸å?温å??????忧ä???ï¼?ä»?å¹´â??????????????????æ±?ä¸?足å??´é??缩é??©â??????????忧ï?ç»´æ???¨å¹´CPI??æ¯?1.1ï¼???è¾?ä½?ä¸??¢å?¤æ????????¥å?????ºæ???¥å??ä¸?????é«??ºæ?°ç?å½±å??ï¼?CPI å°?ä½?ä½?çª?å¹?æ³¢å?¨ã???????ºæ?°é??ä½?ï¼??¹å?????¿ç???åº?å°?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥æ?¾ç?°ï?å¸??ºæ?ºå?¶å???¥å????ä½????ç»?æµ??????¨å??ä¹??¨å?强ï?ä¾???缺å?£æ????è¶?äº?å¼¥å??ï¼?é¢?计ä???å¹?PI ä¸??¢å???½æ¸©??????ï¼?å¹´æ?????½å?????³è?å¹´å???¼æ°´å¹³é??è¿??????¹æ????ä»??¤æ???ä¾?ç»?ä¾?PIå¿?????缩ä?????ä¾?ç»?????å¿????¾ä?å°???为å??ä½?CPI???¸å?????????????å±?æ°?å°±ä?ä¸??¶å?¥å????ä»??¶å??????ä¹???年失ä¸???é«?ä¼???延ç??¿é??æ±????¶æ?¿ç?CPIï¼??³ä½¿?ºè?ç±»æ???¡æ?è´¹å?ºæ??»§ç»??å¿??¢å?ï¼?ä¸???å¹?PI??æ¯???è¶?äº?????ï¼?ä½??´ä?CPI????????ä»??¸å????§ï?é¢?è®?023å¹´æ?´ä?CPI??æ¯?1.1ï¼?ï¼?ä»?å¹´æ?????è¦???å¿?????????????ï¼?ä¹?????解è?为â????æ±?ä¸?足å??´é??缩é??©â????

????

??????容è???????³ä?å®?æº?å®?è§???究æ?¥å??ï¼?

??????ç»?æµ?常æ????ï¼?è´§å???正常????????23Q1??è´§å??¿ç??§è??¥å????解è???

????è¯??¸å????å¸?ï¼?å±?å¼ è´¾ä?? ????

??????å¸??¥æ??ï¼?2023.05.15

?³é?????读ï? ç»?æµ?è´§å?

责任���赵路 RF13155