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????ç¬??ï¼?ç¾????¨æ?å¹´å???8次è????è®??ä¼?è®?ºªè¦?ï¼?Minutesï¼?????¿ç?å½¢æ??è¿?ç¨????¿ç??????»è???è¯þ>?说æ??ï¼?ä¸????¨ä?è®???¨å???????2023å¹???24?¥å?????5??è®????è®?ºªè¦???ä¸??¹å?³é??¿¡???ä¸???????¨å???并没??ç»??ºå????13-14?¥ä?è®?¸­????????????ç¡?¿¡?·ï?ä¸?ç¾????¨å???¨å????¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·????è¾?大å??æ­§ï?ä»???æ³??³å????þ@??»¥å®£å???æ­¢å?????äº??????°é?¶æ???æ³?对æ???¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·??ç»??ºæ??°ç????å¼?ï¼?ç¾????¨å???认为ä¿???å¼??¾å???µæ´»?§æ????è¦???ï¼???need to retain optionality after this meeting??ï¼?ï¼?ä¸????ç¾????¨å?äº?ç»?æµ?????????认è?ï¼?以å???¶æ?¢æ?????¢è?æ¡??¶æ?¥ç??ï¼?å¹´å??????????æ¦???äº?件ã??

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????ç¬??ï¼?ç¾????¨ç??è®????è®???常æ???±å·¥ä½?人å??ï¼?staffï¼???ä¾?ä¸?份å?ºå??å±???????ï¼?ä¾?ç¾????¨ä?ä¼???ï¼?participantsï¼???????对ä?ç»?æµ???è¨?ï¼??ºä?对é?¶è?ä¿¡ç?¨ç´§ç¼©ç??????ï¼?å·¥ä?人å????ç»?æµ?ä¸???å¹´å???½å?ºç?°æ?åºþA¡°??ä½?为å?ºå????å½?????¶ä?ä¿??2024??2025å¹´å???GDPå¢?????ç¾????¨ä?ä¼??????¤æ???¸å?没æ??è¿?ä¹???ç¡???è°¨æ??ï¼?ä»?ä»??ä¸?023å¹´ç?æµ?å¢??????½ä?ä½?äº?æ½??¨å??¿ï??¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??´ç??信贷紧缩???½å?ç»?æµ?æ´»å?¨äº§??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è¡?????ï¼?ä½?ä»???æ³?å®????¤æ?????¨å??ä¸?ä¼???认为信贷???½å?åºþ=??????

????ç¬???ï¼?ç¾????¨å·¥ä½?人å??ä¸?è°?äº?2023å¹?CE???¸å?PCE??æ¯???.1ï¼???3.8ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?3??çº??ä¸??æµ???2.8ï¼???3.5ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?ä¼???å¯?023å¹?CE???¸å?PCE??æ¯?é¢?æµ???ä¸???°å??????¸º3.3ï¼???3.6ï¼???ç¾????¨ä?ä¼???认为ï¼??°é?¶æ?????ä»??¶å¤ªé«?ï¼???unacceptably high??ï¼????¸å????????½è??å¥?ä¸???é¢???ï¼??¶ä¸­?¸å?????ä»·æ?¼å???½é??åºþ@??????¤ä??¿å????¸å????¡å??项价?¼å???½ä??¶è????å°±ä?å¸??ºä??¶ç´§å¼?ï¼?导è?´è???å¢???ä¸?è¡?ç¼?? ¬??ç²??§è?强ã??å¦???ä¸?è¿°é?????¹å???????æ¼???è·??延续ï¼?????ä»??????¥å??ä¸???认è?????????ï¼?ç¾????¨æ??ä¼?ç­??¥æ??????????¨æ??ï¼?ä½??¨è??¿æ?¶é?´é??ç»´æ??é«??¿ç??©ç??ï¼??¤é???¸å????è¡°é???ºç?°ï??þ@??å¹´å??ä¸???????

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????ç¬??????ä¸???è®???ºªè¦?没æ??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥æ????ä¸?ä¸???ç»?论â??ï¼????????°å?ºæ?´å¼º???°æ???èµ??³ç??¹å?ï¼?Fed Watch?°æ???¾ç¤º??6??ç¾????¨æ????????»¥??继续????5bp??æ¦???????¸º67ï¼???33ï¼?ï¼?继续??????æ¦???è¾???ä¸?天ç??28ï¼?ç¨???èµ°é?ï¼?7??????5bp??ä¸???????æ¦?????????6.2ï¼???40.9ï¼?ï¼????¼å????¸º36.7ï¼???57.6ï¼?ï¼???è´§é?????ç«??¿ç??©ç??ä¸?è¡???.27ï¼?ï¼????¼ä¸º5.20ï¼?ï¼???ä»?èµ?产表?°æ?¥ç??ï¼???å¹´æ??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?è¡?5bp??.74ï¼?ï¼?ç¾??????°ä?è¡???03.88ï¼??????ç¡???§å?????ºå?¡ä?????????????³æ?¨å??é£??©æº¢ä»·ï?ä¸?大è?¡æ??????ä¸???ç¨?åºþ??è·???

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????ç¾????¨æ?å¹´å???8次è????è®??ä¼?è®?ºªè¦?ï¼?Minutesï¼?????¿ç?å½¢æ??è¿?ç¨????¿ç??????»è???è¯þ>?说æ??ï¼?ä¸????¨ä?è®???¨å???????2023å¹???24?¥å?????5??è®????è®?ºªè¦???ä¸??¹å?³é??¿¡???ä¸???????¨å???并没??ç»??ºå????13-14?¥ä?è®?¸­????????????ç¡?¿¡?·ï?ä¸?ç¾????¨å???¨å????¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·????è¾?大å??æ­§ï?ä»???æ³??³å????þ@??»¥å®£å???æ­¢å?????äº??????°é?¶æ???æ³?对æ???¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·??ç»??ºæ??°ç????å¼?ï¼?ç¾????¨å???认为ä¿???å¼??¾å???µæ´»?§æ????è¦???ï¼???need to retain optionality after this meeting??ï¼?ï¼?ä¸????ç¾????¨å?äº?ç»?æµ?????????认è?ï¼?以å???¶æ?¢æ?????¢è?æ¡??¶æ?¥ç??ï¼?å¹´å??????????æ¦???äº?件ã??

????ç¾?ä¸??¶é??023å¹???24?¥ï?ç¾????¨å???5??2-3?¥è????è®?ºªè¦???çº???¾ç¤ºï¼?ç¬??ï¼?ç¾????¨å???并没??ç»??ºå????13-14?¥ä?è®?¸­????????????ç¡?¿¡?·ï?ä¸?ç¾????¨å???¨å????¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·????è¾?大å??æ­§ï?ä»???æ³??³å????þ@??»¥å®£å???æ­¢å?????5??è®????è®???ï¼????þ@?ºé???©ç???????ºé?´ä¸º5ï¼?-5.25ï¼???

????5??çº???¾ç¤ºï¼?ä¸?äº?ï¼???some??ï¼?ä¸?ä¼???认为å¦???ç»?æµ???????å¦?é¢??????½ï???ä¹???ä¸???è¦?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å??????¶è??ï¼??þ??äº?ï¼???several??ï¼?ä¸?ä¼???认为???????½å??ï¼???æ¦???ä»?ä½?ï¼???æ­¤é??è¦?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥æ?¶ç´§è´§å??¿ç?ï¼???some participants commented thatï¼? based on their expectations that progress in returning inflation to 2ï¼? could continue to be unacceptably slowï¼? additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetingsï¼?several participants noted that if the economy evolved along the lines of their current outlooksï¼? then further policy firming after this meeting may not be necessary??ï¼???

????æ­¤å?ï¼?ç¾????¨ç??äº?Chirstopher Waller?¨ä??¨å???©ç?å°¼ä??£å·´å·´æ??大å?ä¸????°ï??¤é?????°é?????¾è?????½å??ï¼?????æ°´å¹³???°æ????þ@??ä»?ä¸?èµ???å®??¨å??æ­¢å?????ä½?6??ä¼?è®?¸­??»§ç»???????????????????è¦??ºä??????¨ç??ç»?æµ??°æ?????I do not support stopping rate hikes unless we get clear evidence that inflation is moving down towards our 2ï¼? objectiveï¼? but whether we should hike or skip at the June meeting will depend on how the data come in over the next three weeks.??ï¼???

????å°½ç???ç»??³ç?ä»????ä¸??¸å?????°æ???èµ???æ¡??¶ï?data-dependentï¼?ï¼?ä½??¨æ?°ç??ä¿¡æ???ºç?°å??ï¼?é²?å¨?å°???ä¸??¨è?è¯?????????????ä¸?????è·?????ä¸???è¦??ºå????5??19?¥ç????¨ä¸»å¸??å¨?å°???homas Laubach??究ä?è®?¸­???ºï?è´§å?紧缩??æ»?????åº?ï¼??¶å?ç»?æµ?????????å½±å??ä»???è¾?é«?ä¸?ç¡???§ï?????è¿????¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??´ç??ä¿¡è´·????¶ç´§ï¼?ç¾????¨å???½ä?å¿???è¿?继续æ¿?è¿??????¥è¾¾?°ç??????ä»?è¿?段è?è¯??»è??¥ç??ï¼???ä»??¾å??äº?认为ï¼??ºå????å½??ï¼?5??ä»???è¾?大æ???????½®?¨æ??ä¸?????ä¸?次å??????

?????½ç????ä¼?è®?¸­ï¼?ä¸?ä¼???对ä????¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·??????æ­§è?大ï?ä½?ç»???ç¾????¨ä¸»å¸??å¨?å°?ä¸??¨ç??讲è?ï¼???ä»??¾å??äº?认为ï¼?5??å¾????½æ????½®?????¨æ??ä¸?????ä¸?次å??????5??19?¥ï?ç¾????¨ä¸»å¸??å¨?å°???homas Laubach??究ä?è®?¸­???ºï?è´§å?紧缩??æ»?????åº?ï¼??¶å?ç»?æµ?????????å½±å??ä»???è¾?é«?ä¸?ç¡???§ï?????è¿????¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??´ç??ä¿¡è´·????¶ç´§ï¼?ç¾????¨å???½ä?å¿?继续æ¿?è¿??????¥è¾¾?°ç????????we have come a long way in policy tighteningï¼? and the stance of policy is restrictiveï¼? and we face uncertainty about the lagged effects of our tightening so far and about the extents of credit tightening from recent banking stressï¼? our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals??????»¥???°ï?é²?å¨?å°???讲è?????????????ä¸?????è·?????ä¸???è¦??ºå????ä½?ä¸?OMCé¢?è¢?ï¼?é²?å¨?å°?ä»?????ç»??³å?è´§å??¿ç?èµ°å?????³å??§äºº?©ã??

????æ­¤å?ï¼?çº???¾ç¤ºï¼?????æ³?对æ???¥è´§å¸??¿ç?è·????æ¸??°ç???¤æ???ç¾????¨å???认为ä¿???å¼??¾å???µæ´»?§æ????è¦???ï¼???many participants focused on the need to retain optionality??ï¼???

????ç¾????¨ç??è®????è®???常æ???±å·¥ä½?人å??ï¼?staffï¼???ä¾?ä¸?份å?ºå??å±???????ï¼?ä¾?ç¾????¨ä?ä¼???ï¼?participantsï¼???????对ä?ç»?æµ???è¨?ï¼??ºä?对é?¶è?ä¿¡ç?¨ç´§ç¼©ç??????ï¼?å·¥ä?人å????ç»?æµ?ä¸???å¹´å???½å?ºç?°æ?åºþA¡°??ä½?为å?ºå????å½?????¶ä?ä¿??2024??2025å¹´å???GDPå¢?????ç¾????¨ä?ä¼??????¤æ???¸å?没æ??è¿?ä¹???ç¡???è°¨æ??ï¼?ä»?ä»??ä¸?023å¹´ç?æµ?å¢??????½ä?ä½?äº?æ½??¨å??¿ï??¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??´ç??信贷紧缩???½å?ç»?æµ?æ´»å?¨äº§??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è¡?????ï¼?ä½?ä»???æ³?å®????¤æ?????¨å??ä¸?ä¼???认为信贷???½å?åºþ=??????

????5??çº???¾ç¤ºï¼?ç¾????¨å·¥ä½?人å??ç»´æ??ä¸???å¹´ç?æµ?æµ?åºþA¡°?????¤æ???ä½?ä¸?ä¿??2025å¹?DPå¢??????¤æ????å·¥ä?人å??é¢?计ï?2024??2025å¹´å???GDPå¢???é¢?计ä?ä½?äº?ç¾????¨å?³ä?对æ??¨ç?æµ?å¢?????é¢?æµ?ï¼???????çº??ä¸??å·¥ä?人å??认为2024å¹´ç?æµ?ä¼?ä½?äº?æ½??¨å???ï¼?ä½?2025å¹´ç?æµ?ä¼?é«?äº?æ½??¨å?????

????ç¾????¨ä?ä¼???对ç?æµ?????忧ç?åºþ>?¸å??´ä?ï¼?ä¸?ä¼???认为2023å¹´ç?æµ?å¢??????½ä?ä½?äº?æ½??¨å??¿ï??¶è?ä¸??±æ?ºå??´ç??信贷紧缩???½å?ç»?æµ?æ´»å?¨äº§??è¿?ä¸?æ­¥ä?è¡?????ï¼?ä½?ä»??§æ??æ³?å®????¤æ???ä¸?äº?ï¼?someï¼?ä¸?ä¼??????°ï??½ç?¶ä¿¡è´·ä?ç»?????ä¸?æ»?ï¼?ä½????½å?åºþ=????ï¼???access to credit had not yet appeared to have declined significantly since the recent onset of stress in the banking sector??ï¼???

????ç¾????¨å·¥ä½?人å??ä¸?è°?äº?2023å¹?CE???¸å?PCE??æ¯???.1ï¼???3.8ï¼?ï¼?é«?äº?3??çº??ä¸??æµ???2.8ï¼???3.5ï¼?ï¼?ä¸?ä¼???å¯?023å¹?CE???¸å?PCE??æ¯?é¢?æµ???ä¸???°å??????¸º3.3ï¼???3.6ï¼???ç¾????¨ä?ä¼???认为ï¼??°é?¶æ?????ä»??¶å¤ªé«?ï¼???unacceptably high??ï¼????¸å????????½è??å¥?ä¸???é¢???ï¼??¶ä¸­?¸å?????ä»·æ?¼å???½é??åºþ@??????¤ä??¿å????¸å????¡å??项价?¼å???½ä??¶è????å°±ä?å¸??ºä??¶ç´§å¼?ï¼?导è?´è???å¢???ä¸?è¡?ç¼?? ¬??ç²??§è?强ã??å¦???ä¸?è¿°é?????¹å???????æ¼???è·??延续ï¼?????ä»??????¥å??ä¸???认è?????????ï¼?ç¾????¨æ??ä¼?ç­??¥æ??????????¨æ??ï¼?ä½??¨è??¿æ?¶é?´é??ç»´æ??é«??¿ç??©ç??ï¼??¤é???¸å????è¡°é???ºç?°ï??þ@??å¹´å??ä¸???????

????5??çº???¾ç¤ºï¼?FOMCä¸?ä¼???认为ï¼??°é?¶æ?????ä»??¶å¤ªé«?ï¼???unacceptably high??ï¼????¸å????????½è??å¥?ä¸???é¢???ï¼??¶ä¸­ï¼??¸å?????ä»·æ?¼å???½é??åºþ@??????¤ä??¿å????¸å????¡å??项价?¼å???½ä??¶è????å°±ä?å¸??ºä??¶ç´§å¼?ï¼?导è?´è???å¢???ä¸?è¡?ç¼?? ¬??ç²??§è?强ï???participants agreed that inflation was unacceptably highï¼? they commented that data through March indicated that declines in inflationï¼? particularly for measures of core inflationï¼? had been slower than they had expected??ï¼???æ­¤å?ï¼?å·¥ä?人å??å°?2024å¹´æ?¸å???????é¢???ä¿??¹ä¸ºå°?å¹?é«?äº?2ï¼?ï¼???moderately above 2ï¼???ï¼?ï¼?对æ?3??çº????é¢?????为æ?¥è?2ï¼?ï¼???near 2ï¼???ï¼???

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