ç¾??½ï?6???????????æ¸ æ¬§æ´²ï¼??????ç»???å¼?/p>

????·� � ·

????ç»?æµ?ï¼?ç¾??½å?ºå?¡ä???è°??¤å????ä¸?è¾¾æ????è®??å°??????ºå?¡ä???两年ï¼????¶å??????????¶ä¸¤å¹´å?????¿å?å¼?????ç¾????¨è?产è??ºè¡¨??ç»??¶ç¼©ï¼???TFPä¸?FIMAå¤???æµ??¨æ?§æ????å·¥å?·ä½¿?¨é???????????½ã????ä¸??¶è?è´·æ?ä¸?å­?款ç?è§?模è?ä¸?ä¸??¨æ????????ï¼?ä¸?è¿?ä¸???¶è???ä»???¸´ä¸?å®????´äº§é£??©ã??6??????????¾è??ä¸???????????27?¥ï?å¸??ºç?±ä??¨é???6????æ­¢å?????è½???为é???6??大æ???????5BP??æ­¤å?ï¼?å¸??ºé???å¹´å??????0BP以ä???æ¦???ä¹??±ä??¨ç??61.8ï¼?ä¸?????8.4ï¼???10å¹´æ??ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?????.80ï¼?ï¼?主å??10å¹´æ??ç¾??ºå????¶ç????ä¸???ï¼???ç»?????³æ³¨å¸??ºé???????çº???????

????ç¾??½æ?¶æ???å¼?/STRONG>ï¼?4??ç¾??½ä¸ªäººå???????¶å?¥ç»´??强å?²å??¿ï?æ¶?è´¹æ???ºä?ä»?å¤?äº?é«?ä½???????????ä»?大ï?4??PCEä»·æ?¼æ???°å??æ¯?å¢???????????ï¼?å°¤å?¶æ?¸å?PCE????ä»?大ã???¿å?°äº§??æ­¥ä?ç¨?/STRONG>ï¼?4???°æ?¿é????????±è?è½??ï¼??¾è?????????????ç»???????5??Markit?¶é??ä¸?ä¸????¡ä?PMIä¹??´ç??????ä»??¨è?ä¸?æ­¥æ?©å¤§ï¼?4??ç¾??½æ?¸å?èµ??????°è?????æ¯?å¢?????????????欧洲?¹é???5??欧å???ºå?¶é??ä¸?ä¸????¡ä?PMI???·å???°æ??ç»??????°è±¡ï¼?æ¶?è´¹è??ä¿¡å????°å?å¹?????ï¼?ä½?ä»??¾è??ä½?äº???????æ°´å¹³ï¼?4??欧ç??28?½ç???º§????æ¯?å¢??????½ã??

?????¿ç?ï¼?ç¾????¨å??????????þ@??????ºç?°å??æ­§ï?ä¸?è¿?å¤??°å???认为???þ@???????è¦?è§?å¯??´å??°æ???并ä??ºæ????½ä?认为年å??ä¼???????欧央è¡?å¤?ä½?å®???????é¹°æ´¾ç«??ºï?欧央è¡??????¨æ????ä»?å°?继续ï¼??±å?½é????????ä»?大ï??±å¤®è¡?å®???表示?¥é????顽å?ºæ??å°?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å??????¥å¤®è¡?称å?继续??å¿??°å??½è´§å¸?宽æ?¾æ?¿ç?ï¼??°è¥¿?°å????5BP??.5ï¼???

????1

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????æ¸?/STRONG>

????ç¾??½å?ºå?¡ä???è°??¤å??步达????è®?????äº??¶é????28?¥ï?ç¾??½æ?»ç????»ä?ä¼?è®??¢è??¿éº¦?¡é?¡å·²????ä¸?è¾¾æ???ºå?¡ä?????è®??å°??????°æ???ºå?¡ä???两年ï¼????¶å??????????¶ä¸¤å¹´å???¨å???¿å????ºï?并é?计ä?å½??°æ?¶é????28?¥å???æ³?æ¡?èµ·è??并å????????å½??°æ?¶é????31?¥å°±?ºå?¡ä?????è®??è¡???票ã??æ­¤å??ï¼?ç¾??½è´¢?¿é?¨é?¿è?¶ä¼¦è­þ@??称ï?è´¢æ?¿é?¨å????5?¥å???å°½è?????

??????????26?¥ï?ç¾???å¹´æ??CDS????¨é??¹æ????ä¸?æ»???????ç¾??½å?ºå?¡ä???è°??¤å??å¾?è¿?å±?ï¼?ç¾???å¹´æ??CDS??????æ¸????½ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾????¨è?产è??ºè¡¨??ç»??¶ç¼©????????24?¥ï?ç¾????¨è?产è??ºè¡¨è§?模è???ä¸??¨ä???205.1亿ç???ï¼????½å?åºþA???ä¸??¨æ?????¶ç????¶ä¸­ï¼???TFPä¸?FIMA使ç?¨è?模ä???å°?å¹?????å¤?ï¼??¶ä?æµ??¨æ?§æ????å·¥å?·ä½¿?¨é??????ç»????½ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

??????ä¸??¶è?å­?è´·æ?è§?模å?????¾å???¿ã????????17?¥ï?ç¾??½å??ä¸??¶è?è´·æ?ä¸?ç§?èµ?è§?模è?ä¸?ä¸??¨å????104.7亿ç???ï¼?ç»???äº?æ­¤å??两å?¨ä?è¡???è¶??¿ã???¶ä¸­ï¼?å°??¶è?è´·æ?????å¹?åºþ=?´å¤§??å­?款è?模ä?è¾???ä¸??¨ä???äº?299.4亿ç???ï¼?大é?¶è?å­?款å??æµ?å¹?åºþ=?´å?????¾ã??ä¸?è¿?ï¼??¨ç????¨å?©ç??ä»?ç»´æ??é«?ä½??????µä?ï¼?å½???æµ·å??¶è?é£??©æ??ä»?????¨æ??¤ï?ä¸???¶è???ä»???ä¸?å®????´äº§é£??©ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

?????¶å?¥ç»´??强å?²å???/STRONG>??4??ç¾??½ä¸ªäººå???????¶å?¥å??æ¯?å¢???ä¸?.9ï¼?ï¼?è¾?3??????0.3ä¸??¾å???¹ï?ä¸?021å¹???以æ?¥ç???°é???2023å¹´ï?ç¾??½å?è¡?äº??´é??????þ=??å¾?ç¨?ç­?级å???????£é?¤é?ï¼?å±?æ°?纳ç?è´????¾è????ä½?ï¼???ä¹?ï¼??³å?¨å??å¸??ºç??强å?²ä?使å?å·¥è?????»´??è¾?é«?å¢???ï¼?ä¿?使å?æ°??¶å?¥ä???é«?å¢???

????æ¶?è´¹å???ä»?å¤?é«?ä½???4??ç¾??½ä¸ªäººæ?è´¹æ???ºå??æ¯?å¢???ä¸?.7ï¼?ï¼?è¾?3??????0.5ä¸??¾å???¹ï?ä»??¾è??é«?äº???????æ°´å¹³ï¼?2019å¹?2??ä¸?.5ï¼?ï¼???æ¶?è´¹ç???§æ?§ä?å±?æ°?ä»???ä¸?å®?è§?模ç??è¶?é¢??¨è??以å???¶å?¥ä???强å?²æ???³ã????ä»??计ï?ç¾??½å?æ°?è¶?é¢??¨è??大æ?????»¥????ç»?æµ??°ä?å¹´å¹´åº???è¿?ï¼?ä¹????³ç??å¹´å??ç¾??½æ?è´¹æ??ä»?????????

????????????ä»?å¤?/STRONG>??4??ç¾???CEä»·æ?¼æ???°å??æ¯?å¢???4.4ï¼?ï¼?è¾?3??????0.2ä¸??¾å???¹ã???¶ä¸­ï¼??¸å?PCE??æ¯?å¢???è¾?3??????0.1ä¸??¾å???¹è??.7ï¼???å½???ç¾??½é????ä»??·æ??è¾?é«?ç²??§ï?å°¤å?¶æ?¸å?????????ä»?大ã????ä»??计ï?ä¸???å¹´ç??????????????ºç?°ç?解ï?ä»???å¸þ@?¨æ?¸å????????¾å???½ï?ä¸?è¿?ï¼?å¹´å????????ä½???/STRONG>3ï¼?以ä???æ¦?????è¾?ä½???

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

?????°æ?¿é????????ä¼?稳ã??4??ç¾??½æ?°å»ºä½??¿é??????æ¯?å¢???ä¸?1.8ï¼?ï¼?è¾?3??大å?????19.0ä¸??¾å???¹ï?ç»???äº???022å¹???以æ?¥è?ç»?3ä¸?????è´?å¢??¿ã??ä¸?è¿?ï¼?è¿?å¾?大ç?åºþ??ä¸??»å¹´?????ºæ?°è?ä½?????/STRONG>ï¼????¤å?ºæ?°å½±??ï¼??°æ?¿é????¹´??å¹³å??å¢???ä¸?0.4ï¼???

????ä»?????¥ç??ï¼??°æ?¿é????·²ç»?è¿?ç»?¸¤ä¸???为æ???ä»?ç»?对é???¥ç??ï¼??°æ?¿é??????022å¹?????步触åº???????020å¹?????æ°´å¹³???´ä??¥ç??ï¼??°æ?¿é?????稳迹象æ???¾ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????

??????????°ç»§ç»???????5??ç¾???arket?¶é??ä¸?PMIä¸?8.5ï¼?è¾?4??ä¸???1.7ï¼???????缩å?ºé?´ã????Markit???¡ä?PMIè¾?4??????1.5??5.1??

?????¸å?èµ??????°è?????????4??ç¾??½æ?¸å?èµ??????¶é??ä¸??°è?????æ¯?å¢???ä¸?.6ï¼?ï¼?è¾?3??ä¸???0.8ä¸??¾å???¹ï????å¢???????2ä¸??¾å???¹è??.4ï¼????¸å?èµ??????°è???å¢?????????ï¼????????ºç??½ç?æµ?ä»??·æ??ä¸?å®??§æ?§ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????6??????????¾è??ä¸???????????27?¥ï?å¸??ºç?±ä?ä¸??¨é???6????æ­¢å?????è½???为é???6??大æ???ï¼?64.2ï¼?ï¼?????5BP??æ­¤å?ï¼?å¸??ºé???å¹´å??????0BP以ä???æ¦???ä¹??±ä??¨ç??61.8ï¼?ä¸?????8.4ï¼???6?????????????温æ??ä¸?ä¸?ä¸??¨ç?æµ??°æ??»´??强å?²ã??????ä»??¶é¡½?ºä»¥??ç¾????¨å?ä½?å®????¥è???表鹰派è??¹æ???³ã??

????ç¾??ºæ?¶ç????ä¸?????.80ï¼?????????26?¥ï?ç¾???0å¹´æ???½å?ºå??ä¹??¶ç????è¾?ä¸?ä¸??¨å????10BP??.80ï¼????¶ä¸­ï¼?10å¹´æ??ç¾??ºå????¶ç????ä¸???11BP??.57ï¼?ï¼?10å¹´æ??????é¢???????BP??.23ï¼?ï¼??¸å?稳å?????ä»??为ï?ç¾????¨å¹´????????????¸å?è¾?ä½?ï¼???ç»?????³æ³¨å¸??ºé???????çº?????ï¼?ç¾??ºå?©ç????ä»?å°?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥è??´ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????2

????欧洲�?????�??�/STRONG>

??????????½ï???????ç»?/STRONG>??5??欧å???ºç»¼??PMIä¸?3.3ï¼?è¾?4??????.8???¶ä¸­ï¼??¶é??ä¸?PMIè¾?4??ä¸???1.2??4.6ï¼?å·²è?ç»?1ä¸???å¤?äº??£æ??º¿ä¹?ä¸????·ä??¥ç??ï¼?欧洲主è??½å?ä¸???¤æ??½å?¶é??ä¸?PMIè¾?ä¸?ä¸????¥æ??????å¤?ï¼??±å?½ä?å¾·å?½å?¶é??ä¸?PMI????ç»????½ã??

????5??欧å???ºæ???¡ä?PMIä¸?5.9ï¼?è¾?4??ä¸???0.3ï¼?ç»???äº?æ­¤å??è¿?ç»?ä¸?????ä¸??????¿ã???´ä??¥ç??ï¼?欧å???ºæ???¡ä?ä¸??¶é??ä¸??????????ä»??¨è?ä¸?æ­¥æ?©å¤§??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????æ¶?è´¹è??ä¿¡å?å°?å¹???????5??欧å????9?½æ?è´¹è??ä¿¡å????°ä¸º-17.4ï¼?è¾?4??????0.1ï¼??????????????¾ç?ï¼?ä¸??´ä?ä»??¾è??ä½?äº???????æ°´å¹³ï¼?2019å¹?2??ä¸?7.6ï¼????¨æ?æ´²é????ä»??¶é?ä¼?以å??欧央è¡???ç»???????å½±å??ä¸?ï¼????¥æ?è´¹è??ä¿¡å???ä»?å°????°æ???¶ã??

????ç²???º§??å¢???ä¸?æ»???4??欧ç??28?½ç???º§????æ¯?å¢???ä¸?9.8ï¼?ï¼???å¹?è¾?3???©å¤§2.7ä¸??¾å???¹ï?å·²è?ç»?7ä¸???å¤?äº?è´?å¢??¿ã??

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????ç¾??½ï?6???????????温â????æµ·å?ç»?æµ??¿ç?è·?è¸??æµ·é??å®?è§???ä¿?????å®??´ã??æ¢?ä¸???ï¼?

????3

?????¿ç?ï¼?ç¾?欧央è¡?ä»???é¹?/STRONG>

????ç¾????¨å????³ä?6?????þ=??????????¨å??æ­§ã??å½???ç¾??½å???ä»??¨æ???þA?ä¸?æ­¥å?????¹é?¢å??¨æ??è§???æ­§ã???¨å??å®???认为?????¨æ?????½æ?¥è?尾声??ä¾?å¦?ï¼?ç¾??½å??è´¢é??nuchin认为ï¼?ç¾????¨å???????ºæ??·²ç»?å®?????ï¼????½ä??????次ã??波士顿è???¨ä¸»å¸??????????ºç????¨å???½å?äº??????¥è??????????????¹ã??

????ä¹????¨å??å®???é¹°æ´¾ç«??ºä???å®????£è·¯???????¨ä¸»å¸????å¾·è?为ï?å¸??ºæ??¨æ??é«?????é¢???ï¼?å°?ä¸?å¾?ä¸???é«??©ç??以æ???¶é????ï¼?é¢?计ä?å¹´è?ä¼???两æ?????????å°¼é?¿æ³¢?©æ?????¨ä¸»å¸??¡ä??¡å?©è?为ï?ç¾?????????????继续?????????½æ?§è?为æ?¥è?ï¼??³ä½¿6???????????ä¹?ä¸????³ç´§ç¼©å?¨æ??å·²ç?å®???ï¼????¥å???½é??è¦?ä»?å½???æ°´å¹³è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å??????

????æ­¤å?ï¼?å¤?ä½?å®???强è?6?????þ@???????ç»?æµ??°æ????å¼?ï¼?ä¾?å¦?ç¾????¨ç??äº?æ²?????äº??¹å?°å¤§???¨ä¸»å¸????????????§é??å±±è???¨ä¸»å¸??´å?©ã?????©å¤«?°è???¨ä¸»å¸?????¹ç???ä¸?è¿?å®???ä»??ºæ????½ä?认为年å??ä¼?????/STRONG>??

????欧央è¡?å¤?ä½?å®???é¹°æ´¾ç«??ºä???å®???欧央è¡?è¡??¿æ????德表示ï?å°???è¿?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥æ??é«???款æ??????¥ä½¿æ¬§å¤®è¡????????½è??ï¼???????ï¼?欧央è¡?å®???Makhlouf表示ï¼???å¤?????å¤????????¸¤æ¬¡ï?欧央è¡?管å???å¾·å?½å¤®è¡?è¡???agel认为ï¼?å¤???©ç??æ°´å¹³?¨â??足å??¿ç???¶é?´â?????½å?ä¿????¨ç´§ç¼©å?ºé?´ï????¥ä???è¦?è¿?è¡???好å??次â??????????欧洲å¤??管å?Vasle认为ï¼?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å???????è¦???ï¼?ä¸?è¿?å¹?åºþ??æ¯?è¿??»æ?´å?ï¼?欧央è¡?管å?De Cos???ºï??¿ç?紧缩è¡??¨æ??¨ç¨³æ­¥æ?¨è?ï¼?ä»????µè¾¾ç»??¹ï??¨ç?¸å??¿ç???¶é?´å???©ç??ä»?å°?å¤?äº?紧缩水平??

????ä¸?è¿?ï¼?ä¹????¨å??欧央è¡?å®???对è?ä¸?æ­¥æ?¶ç´§è´§å??¿ç??¸å?è°¨æ????欧央è¡?管å?Villeroy???ºï??????ç»?æµ???????è´??¢å½±??å°???è¦??´é?¿æ?¶é?´æ???½æ?¾ç?°ï?并è?为å?©ç??è§?顶æ?¶é?´å?ä¸???äº?9??份ã??

?????±å?½é????????ä»?å¤?/STRONG>???±å¤®è¡?è¡??¿è??©æ???ºè?±å?½é?????·æ??ç²??§ï???è¦??¿æ?¶é?´æ???½å???½ï??±å¤®è¡??¨å?©ç?????ä¸???????å¾????ç«??ºã???±å¤®è¡?è´§å??¿ç?å§???ä¼?????Jonathan Haskelå¯????³æ³¨????ï¼?认为?¥æ??迹象表æ??????顽å?ºå¤®è¡?å°?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å??????

?????¥å¤®è¡?继续å®?è¡?è´§å?宽æ?¾æ?¿ç????¥å¤®è¡?è¡??¿æ??°å???·è¡¨ç¤ºï???大ç??????????ç»???稳å?å®???ï¼?????????ï¼?????离å???ï¼???????????ä»???ä¸?段è?离ï?å°?继续??å¿??°å??½è´§å¸?宽æ?¾æ?¿ç???

?????°è¥¿?°å????5BP??.5ï¼?ï¼??°è¥¿?°è???¨é?计ä?2024å¹´ç?ä¸?季度å¼?å§??????? ?°è¥¿?°è???¨å?©ç??主席Silk认为ï¼???è¦??¨ä?段æ?¶é?´å??ç»´æ???©ç??ä¸???ï¼??°å?¨å??»¥????ä¸??¥è?å¯????¥è?å±???

?¨é?¨è?è®