??????ä»??ç®?ï¼?2023å¹?????è´¢è?模ç???å¢??¿ä?0.49ï¼?è¾¾å?°ä?26.53ä¸?亿å??ï¼?ä½?ä¸?4??å¢??¿è?模中?¥è?60ï¼?为ç?°é????è´????ï¼?5???°é????è´¢ç???ä¸???è¶?è¿?1000亿å??ï¼????å¢??¿è?模å??±çº¯?ºæ?¶ç±»??财贡???å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³??6????è´¢è?模æ??ä¹???ï¼????ºé?»è????þ??????????ï¼?ä¸???å¹´å??å°?å¦?ä½???å±?ï¼?????å°?è¿?è¡?è¯þ>???????

????5????è´¢è?模ç???å¾??ï¼?ä½?å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³??2022å¹?1??ä¸????å§???èµ???æ½???¶è???è´¢é????äº??¿ä???è´??¢å½±??ï¼?ä¸??´ç»µå»¶è??023å¹???åº?????ä»??ç®?ï¼?5ä¸????¶é?´è?模é??ä½?äº?çº?.58ä¸?亿å????2023å¹?????è´¢è?模触åº???å¼¹ï????å¢??¿ä?6.67ï¼???6.40ä¸?亿å??ï¼?5??继续???å¾??0.49ï¼???6.53ä¸?亿å??ï¼?ä½?ä¸?4??å¢??¿è?模中?¥è?60ï¼?为ç?°é????è´????ï¼?5???°é????è´¢ç???ä¸???äº?è¶?è¿?1000亿å??ï¼?å¢??¿è?模å??±çº¯?ºæ?¶ç±»??财贡???å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³??

????6????è´¢è?模æ??ä¹???ï¼??±ä?æ¯?è¡?å­£æ?????¸ã????è´?º§???°æ??设置ç­???ç´?ï¼????²ä?6????è´¢è?模å?为ç???ä¸???ï¼?ä¸?ä¸???å¹?åºþA?大ï?2017-2019å¹???å¹³å?????ä¸???äº?4.8ï¼?ï¼???ä»??ç®?2022å¹??????ä¸???äº?3.85ï¼?ï¼?ä¸???è§?模中çº?4ï¼?为ç?°é????è´ ¬????????¨å?¨ç??è´?023å¹?????ä»??¶ç????èµ°é?ï¼????©ä?ç¼?解ç??è´¢å????§è???????????ä½??»ç??¥ç??ï¼?6????è´¢è?模ä?è¡??¾ä»¥?¿å??ï¼?ä½?é¢?è®?0ï¼?以ä?为ç?°é????è´¢ç??æµ??ºï?7????å°±ä???ç»???æµ?ï¼?对å?ºå?å½±å??è¾?为æ??????

?????¶è???è´¢é???ºæ??è·???????å¦?ä½?ï¼?äº?季度å¼?å§?ï¼???è´¢å????????ºé???¥å??????è¡???ä¿??©ï???为æ??大ç?????ºå??????å°±å?·ä??¸ç??¥ç??ï¼??¨å??è¡???å¿?????å¸??¼æ?产å????è¶??¿ä?ï¼???è´¢å?5??对ä?æ°¸å?ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?è§?模达?°ä?346亿å??ï¼?6?????15?¥ï???ä¹°å?¥è?模ä?è¾¾å?°ä?153亿å????å°±æ?????¥ç??ï¼?èµ???æ½??æ³??ä¸?ï¼???è´?¸ºæ±????¼ç¨³å®?ï¼?ä¸?季度主è?ä¹°å??年以????ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºï?å¯?年以ä¸???ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºæ??ç»??????ºã??ä½?äº?季度?¨è??ºç?ä¸?绩è?æ±??????????´å?????¢å?正常?????µä?ï¼?è¿?ä¸?è¶??¿æ???¾å????äº?????ï¼???è´¢å????å¯?Y以ä??©ç???ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?5??å¯?Y以ä?ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?é¢?计æ???¥ä?å°???åºþ=???¿ä???以å????¶ç????

??????è´????å¹´è?模é?计å??¢å???9ä¸?亿å??ï¼?å±??¶æ???©æ?¨å?ºå?走强??2022å¹´å?æ°?ç§?´¯??è¶?é¢??¨è????æµ?æ¶?è´¹ç??è§?模ç?¸å?????ï¼????°äº§ä¹??¾ä»¥?¾é??ï¼?对å?¨è??????æµ?ä½??¨è?å°?ï¼?è¶?é¢??¨è????æµ??³é?¶è???è´¢ç??æ¦?????大ã??æ­¤å??ä»??¶è???è´¢å??æµ??°è¡¨????å­?款ï?çº?8ï¼?以ä?为活??????????年以ä¸???å®???ï¼???æµ??³ç??è´??å­??¨é?»ç??????¶ä¼´??ä¸???å¹´ç??è´¢å?²é????å¥??????????ï¼?é¢?计å?¶æ?´ä?è§?模æ?????¢å???022年中29ä¸?亿以ä¸???æ°´å¹³ï¼?å±??¶æ??å°?ä¼??©æ?¨å?ºå?走强??

????é£??©å??ç´?ï¼?æµ?ç®?ç»????±ä??°æ??????§ä?å®??????µå???½å??¨ä?å®?å·??ï¼?å¸??ºæ³¢?¨è?é¢???ï¼???è´¢è???æ½??·å?????¥ã??

????æ­£æ??

?????¹æ????ä»??ç®?ï¼?2023å¹???åº???è´¢è?模ç???å¢??¿ä?0.49ï¼?è¾¾å?°ä?26.53ä¸?亿å??ï¼?ä½?ä¸?4??å¢??¿è?模中?¥è?60ï¼?为ç?°é????è´????ï¼?5???°é????è´¢ç???ä¸???äº?è¶?è¿?1000亿å??ï¼????å¢??¿è?模å??±çº¯?ºæ?¶ç±»??财贡???å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³ï¼?6????è´¢è?模æ??ä¹???ï¼????ºé?»è????þ??????????ï¼?ä¸???å¹´å??å°?å¦?ä½???å±?ï¼?????å°?è¿?è¡?è¯þ>???????

????5????è´¢è?模ç???å¾??ï¼?ä½?å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³

????2022å¹?1??ä¸????å§???èµ???æ½???¶è???è´¢é????äº??¿ä???è´??¢å½±??ï¼?ä¸??´ç»µå»¶è??023å¹???åº?ï¼?5ä¸????¶é?´è?模é??ä½?äº?çº?.58ä¸?亿å????2022å¹?1??ä¸????å§?ï¼????°è????¢å??ç´§ã???²ç???¿ç?è°??´å???°äº§?¿ç??¾æ?¾å¸¦?¥ç??ç»?æµ?ä¿??强é?????å¤????©ç©ºå½±å??ï¼??ºå?ç»???äº?大å???è°??´ï?å¼?????èµ???èµ???è¡?为ã?????³è?è¡?为ç????顺å?¨æ???§â??å¾?å¾?ä¼??¾å¤§å¸??ºæ³¢?????åºþ@??????¼è??´ï?继è????åºþ=?èµ·è???????ï¼?å½¢æ??è´??¢ç??å¾?????é¦???åº???此轮èµ???æ½???»¥ç»???为两ä¸?³¢æ¬¡ã??ç¬??æ³¢æ??¨è??ºç?????ä¸???è´?¸»è¦?èµ????ºå?ºå?????ºå?©ç???ºï?10å¹´å?½å?ºæ?¶ç??????????å¿???????ï¼?????å¤????????æµ??¨æ?§ç????ç»????¾ï??????¶è?表å??èµ??????¿æ?¥ï??©ç???ºå?å¿??稳ã??ä½????¨ç?äº?æ³¢æ?ä¸???±ä???è´¢å?ºå?¸æ??èµ?ä¸???æ¯???0ï¼?以ä???ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºæ??¨æ?§ç?¸å?è¾?å·??ä¸???è´¢å??¨è??ºç???ç»??????????ä¸?è¡?为è?äº?ä¸??´ï?ä»???å½¢æ??äº?踩è?ï¼?????äº?ä¿¡ç?¨å?©å·®å¤§å?èµ°é????æ­¤å??ï¼?èµ???æ½???ä½?æ³¢é?¿ä???¹³ï¼?????ä»??ç®?ï¼?????023å¹???åº?ï¼???è´¢è?模ä???ä¸????¶é?´é??ä½?äº?çº?.58ä¸?亿å????

????2023å¹?????è´¢è?模触åº???å¼¹ï????å¢??¿ä?6.67ï¼???6.40ä¸?亿å??ï¼?5??继续???å¾??0.49ï¼???6.53ä¸?亿å??ï¼?ä½?ä¸?4??å¢??¿è?模中?¥è?60ï¼?为ç?°é????è´????ï¼?5???°é????è´¢ç???ä¸???äº?è¶?è¿?1000亿å??ï¼?å¢??¿è?模å??±çº¯?ºæ?¶ç±»??财贡???å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³???¨ç?æµ?å¼±å???é¢?????èµ????¢æ??ç»???¾å???ºæ??èµ?产è????æ¼??????????¿ä?ä¸?ï¼??ºå??¨é?¢å????ï¼?ä¿¡ç?¨å?©å·®å¤§å??¶ç¼©ï¼???è´¢ç?´å????大å?ä¿??ï¼??¨é???????????ä¸?ï¼?6??16?¥ç?´å?????´æ????ä½???.67ï¼?ï¼?å·²ç?ä½?äº?èµ???æ½??????æ°´å¹³ï¼??´å?????´å½±å·²ç?æ¶??£ã???¨æ????µä?ï¼??¹æ????ä»???æµ?ç®?ï¼???è´¢è?模å????åº????å¢???.67ï¼???6.4ä¸?亿å??ï¼?5??继续???å¾??0.49ï¼???6.53ä¸?亿å??ï¼?ä½?ä¸?4??å¢??¿è?模中?¥è?60ï¼?为ç?°é????è´????ï¼?5???°é????è´¢ç???ä¸???äº?è¶?è¿?1000亿å??ï¼?å¢??¿è?模å??±çº¯?ºæ?¶ç±»??财贡???æµ?ç®??³å???000亿å??以ä?ï¼?å¢??¿è´¨???´ä½³ï¼?表æ????èµ???对ä???è´¢ç??ä¿¡å?å·²ç???æ¸?ä¿??ï¼???ç»???¿å?¨è?½å??足ã??

????6????è´¢è?模å?????ºé?»è?ä¼?å¦?ä½?æ¼?ç»?ï¼?

?????±ä?æ¯?è¡?å­£æ?????¸ã????è´?º§???°æ??设置ç­???ç´?ï¼????²ä?6????è´¢è?模å?为ç???ä¸???ï¼?ä¸?ä¸???å¹?åºþA?大ï??¶ä¸­ç»?大å??°ä¸º?µæ´»å­??????°é????è´ ¬???¶è??????¸é???å¤?设为季度ï¼???æ­¤ç??è´¢å???æ¯?è¡??¨å?????????¸´è¾?大ç??å­?款è???¸å????ï¼??²é????æ±?è¾?大ï?为é????æ¯?è¡?ï¼???è´?º§??å¤?å°??°æ???¥è?为æ?ä¸??åºþ=?????ä»??????¨è½¬ä¸ºæ?è¡?å­?款ï?ä¸?ä¸??åºþ@????æ»??¨æ?°å??大é??产å??????æ­¤å???²ä???è´¢è?模å???????为ä???ï¼?ä¸?ä¸???å¹?åºþ=????è¾?大ï?2017-2019å¹???å¹³å?????ä¸???äº?4.8ï¼?ï¼?????ä»??ç®?2022å¹??????ä¸???äº?3.85ï¼?ï¼?ä¸???è§?模中çº?4ï¼?为ç?°é????è´ ¬??

??????????å°??¨å?¨ç??è´?????ä»??¶ç????èµ°é?ï¼????©ä?ç¼?解ç??è´¢å????§è???????????è¿??????½ç?æµ?ä¿??ä¸???é¢???ï¼??¶é??ä¸?PMI????5??è¿?ç»??äº??¶ç¼©?ºé?´ï?äº?季度以æ?¥å·¥ä¸?å¢????¼å??æ¯?å¢???ä½?äº?å¸??ºé???ï¼????????¨æ??ä¸?è¡????½é??油价ä½?ä½????¡ï??????°æ????ç»??ä½?è¿?è¡?ï¼?æµ·å?è¡°é??é£??©ä?è¿?ä¸?æ­¥å???µï???此央è¡?????13?¥å??6??15?¥å???????äº?????è´???MLF?©ç??ï¼??¨æ??©å¥½?¨å?¨ä?ï¼?6???¶è???è´¢ç????ä»??¶ç??é¢?计å?ä¼??¾è????é«?ï¼????©ä?ç¼?解ç??è´¢è?模å????§è???????????

?????»ç??¥ç??ï¼?6????è´¢è?模ä?è¡??¾ä»¥?¿å??ï¼?ä½?é¢?è®?0ï¼?以ä?为ç?°é????è´¢ç??æµ??ºï?对å?ºå?å½±å??è¾?为æ??????ç»???以ä???ç´?????ï¼???è´¢è?模å????ä¸?è¡??¾ä»¥?¿å??ï¼?ä½?é¢?计ä?è¡?è§?模å?ä¼?ä½?äº??»å¹´????ï¼????¶ç?°é????è´??è¡?è§?模ç????æ¯???0ï¼?以ä?ï¼?7????å°±ä???ç»??????è´????æ­¤æ?´ä?对å?ºå???å½±å??è¾?为æ????ï¼?ä¸?å¿?è¿?äº???忧ã??

????äº?季度å¼?å§?ï¼???è´¢å????????ºé???¥å??????è¡???ä¿??©ï???为æ??大ç?????ºå??????ä¸?季度?¨è???æ½??????è¶?è°?ä¹?ä¸?ï¼??ºå??§ä»·æ¯????·å?¸å???ï¼?????è¡???ä¿??©æ??为ä?季度?ºå???大ç????ç½?????ï¼?ä¸?季度??ä¹°å?¥è?模å????¾¾?°ä?14712??5488亿å??ï¼??¨å?¨ä??ºå???ç»?µ°????è¿??¥ä?季度ï¼?两è??ä»??§æ??ç»???ä¹°å?¥ï?ä½?ä¹°å?¥å??åºþ=?????¾ç?ï¼???????15?¥ï?两è??äº?季度??ä¹°å?¥è?模å????¸º5328??3913亿å??ï¼?æ¯?ä¸?季度???????äº?64ï¼???29ï¼??????ºä¸»??è½???¸º??è´¢å????????ºé??ç­?交æ????ï¼??¨é?¿å??è¸?空ç??????ä¸?ä¹°å?¥å??åºþ=??ç»?µ°å¼ºï???????15?¥ï?两è??äº?季度??ä¹°å?¥è?模å????¾¾?°ä?8647??16295亿å??ï¼??¸æ?ä¸?季度??????¿ä?241ï¼???191ï¼???

????å°±å?·ä??¸ç??¥ç??ï¼??¨å??è¡???å¿?????å¸??¼æ?产å????è¶??¿ä?ï¼???è´¢å?5??对ä?æ°¸å?ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?è§?模达?°ä?346亿å??ï¼?6?????15?¥ï???ä¹°å?¥è?模ä?è¾¾å?°ä?153亿å????å°±å?·ä??¸ç??¥ç??ï¼??±ä??°é????è´¢è?模å????大å?????ï¼???è´¢å?对å??ä¸?å­?????ä¹°å?¥è?模大å¹?????ï¼???5-6??ï¼??°é????è´¢è?模å???½ï?对å??ä¸?å­???????ä¹°å?¥è?模ä????大å?ä¸?????对å?©ç???ºå??ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºä?延续äº?ä¸?季度????ä¹°å?¥è??¿ã???´ä¸º??è¦??????1-4????ç»????ºç??äº?æ°¸å?ºç??¶ä??ºå?¸å????è½?¸º??ä¹°å?¥ï??»è?模达?°ä?346亿å?????»å¹´12???°ä?季度????¶è???è´¢å?为å?对è???æ½???????ï¼?纷纷?¨å?ºä?大é??å°????è¿?ä½?????ä½????????æ··å??ä¼°å?¼æ???è´?º§??ï¼??¨å?¨é??ä½????¼æ³¢???稳å???èµ???ä¿¡å?ï¼????¶è?äº?æ°¸å?ºç?±ä???管å????ä¸??½ç?¨æ??ä½??????ä¼°å?¼ï?è¢???è´¢æ??ç»??????ºã???¨å?ºå??¨é?¢å????ä¹?ä¸?ï¼???ä½?æ³¢â????ä¼??¿ä?????为ç??è´¢ç????大å???¹ï??¶å??è¡???å¿???æ¸???æµ??³å??¼æ?产å??ï¼?äº?æ°¸å?ºç??¶ä??ºå?¸ä?å¾?以è???è´¢æ??ç»???ä¹°å?¥ï?6?????15?¥ï???ä¹°å?¥è?模ä?è¾¾å?°ä?153亿å????

????å°±æ?????¥ç??ï¼?èµ???æ½??æ³??ä¸?ï¼???è´?¸ºæ±????¼ç¨³å®?ï¼?ä¸?季度主è?ä¹°å??年以????ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºï?å¯?年以ä¸???ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºæ??ç»??????ºã??æ­¤å??ï¼???è´?º§??对è???æ½???å¤?ä¸?????ï¼?èµ?产ç?ä¹???è¾??¿ï??¨è???æ½?¸­?¿æ??äº?è¾?大ç????失ï?èµ???æ½???ï¼?为ä?è¯????¼ç?¸å?稳å?ï¼???è´¢å??好ç?????????ä¸?å­?????ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºï?以便åº?对å?ºå?æ³¢å?¨ã??å°±æ?°æ???¥ç??ï¼?ä¸?季度?¶è???è´¢å??ä¹°å??年以ä¸???ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºè?模达?°ä?2906亿å??ï¼?ä½?å¯?年以ä¸???ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºå?????ºè?模达?°ä?646亿å??ï¼?ä¹°ç?????¿ç??è¶??¿æ???¾ã??

????ä½?äº?季度?¨è??ºç?ä¸?绩è?æ±??????????´å?????¢å?正常?????µä?ï¼?è¿?ä¸?è¶??¿æ???¾å????äº?????ï¼???è´¢å????å¯?Y以ä??©ç???ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?5??å¯?Y以ä?ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï????¥é?计ä?å°???åºþ=???¿ä???以å????¶ç????4??å¼?å§?ï¼???è´¢å?1Y以ä????©ç???ºæ?¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?è§?模达?°ä?109亿å??ï¼?5??è¾¾å?°ä?85亿å??ï¼?6?????15?¥å°±å·²ç?è¾¾å?°ä?125亿å??ï¼????大å?å¢??¿ã??5??å¼?å§?ï¼???è´¢å?ä¿¡ç?¨å?ºä??¢å?äº???ä¹°å?¥ï?è§?模达?°ä?94亿å??ï¼?6?????15?¥å??ä¹°å?¥è?模达?°ä?68亿å??ï¼??¾ç¤º??è´??注ç???????ç­??¥æ?????¹å??ï¼????¥å???½ä???å½????¿é??ç½??ºå?¸ç??ä¹?????

?????¶è???è´????å¹´è?模æ??å°?????9ä¸?亿å??

??????????è´¢æ?¶ç??????????????èµ?????????ç»???ä¿????å­?款å?©ç????ä¸???????ï¼???ä»??为è?é¢??¨è??å°???æ­¥ä???æµ??³é?¶è???è´ ¬??2022å¹´å?æ°??¨æµ·??å¤?é£??©æ?©æ?£ä?ä¸?ï¼?é¢??²æ?§å?¨è????æ±?é«?å¢?ï¼?ç§?´¯äº?大é????è¶?é¢??¨è??ï¼??¶ä¸­çºþ=??3.7ä¸?亿æ????¶è???è´?¸­æµ??ºã????ä»??ä¸?023å¹´è?é¢??¨è????æµ?æ¶?è´¹ç??è§?模ç?¸å?????ï¼????°äº§??????è´?¹°??æ±?ä¹??¾ä»¥?¾é??ï¼?对å?¨è??????æµ?ä½??¨è?å°?ï¼???æ­¤è?é¢??¨è????æµ??³é?¶è???è´¢ç??æ¦?????大ã??6??8?¥ï???¤§è¡??????´æ?°ä?人æ?å¸?å­?款æ?????©ç?????µï?æ´»æ????å®???å­?款å?©ç????????ä¸?è°?ï¼?ä¸??¿æ??å®???å­?款ä?è°?å¹?åºþ=?´å¤§??ä¹???ï¼??¹æ??¸­?½å?ºé??????12?¥æ?¥é??ï¼??????????¶è???æµþ@???¶è???ä¸?¿¡?¶è?????大é?¶è???æ°????¶è?ç­??¨å?½æ?§è?¡ä»½?¶å??ä¸??¶è?ä¹?纷纷ä¸?è°?äº?æ´»æ????å®???å­?款å?©ç??????????è´¢æ?¶ç????????????å­?款å?©ç????ä¸???????ï¼?è¿?ä¸?è¿?ç¨???å°?ä¸?????????

????2022ä¸???å¹´å??æµ??³è¡¨????å­?款æ????大å???年以??ï¼?ä¼´é??ä¸???å¹´ç??è´¢å?²é????å¥?????ï¼???è´¢å??ºæ??å°?è¿??¥ä¿®å¤?ï¼?ä»?å¹´ä???å¹´æ?´ä?è§?模æ?????¢å???022年中29ä¸?亿以ä¸???æ°´å¹³ï¼?é¢?计å??¶å??©æ?¨å?ºå?走强???¹æ???大è???å¹´æ?¥ï???022å¹´å?å®???å­?款中ï¼?çºþ=??78ï¼?为活??å­?款å???????¨ä?年以ä¸???å®???å­?款ï?2023ä¸???年大??èµ???å°?ä¼?æ´»å??ï¼???æµ??³ç??财并???»ç???????è´¢ç??¥æ???¨ä???å¹´å?²å?ºè?模ç?????ï¼?2019å¹´ã??2021å¹´ä???å¹´ç??è´¢å??¿è?模å???¨å¹´å¢??¿è?模ç??æ¯?ä¾?????¸º90ï¼???102ï¼?ï¼?2022å¹´å???ä¸?ç®??¥è???æ½??????0??åº?ï¼?ç¬??季度å¢??¿è?模å????ä¸?季度å¢??¿è?模ç??æ¯?ä¾?ä¹?è¾¾å?°ä?94ï¼?ï¼?2020年缺ä¹??·ä??°æ???ï¼???æ­¤æ??ä»??计ç??è´¢æ?´ä?è§?模å?¨ä???å¹´æ?????¢å???022年中29ä¸?亿以ä¸???æ°´å¹³ï¼???å±??¶å?ä¼??©æ?¨å?ºå?走强??

????é£??©å??ç´?

????æµ?ç®?ç»????±ä??°æ??????§ä?å®??????µå???½å??¨ä?å®?å·??ï¼?å¸??ºæ³¢?¨è?é¢???ï¼???è´¢è???æ½??·å?????¥ã??